ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Hmmm interesting track, 12z GFS has Irene moving N then NE but it actually starts to bend back somewhat by 120hrs.

Looks like its faster then some models are expecting, maybe thats why the GFs is more to the right, because its quicker and therefore catches more of the troughs influence?

E.coast special...NE gets hit hard...

[BigA]

If the 12Z (as opposed to the 6Z) were to verify, it would make a world of difference for the mid-Atlantic coast. Right offshore as opposed to 75-100 miles offshore. Long Island looks to get battered in this run.

[Listeri69]

The GFS 12z looks almost identical in position to the 00z especially at 96hrs, not looking good for the east coast on this run

[KWT]

BigA, yep the NE gets hard on this track, been a very long time since that area has had a strong hurricane hit them.

My gut though is the GFS is a little too far east now...

[tolakram]

Saved image

[KWT]

Looks like the Outer Bank gets the northern eyewall, then Long Island probably gets hurricane force winds, NYC probably getsTS winds as well.

[PTPatrick]

If 12z GFS verified what would winds max out at int he Philly area?

Not to mention, that looks like the most direct hit on NYC ive seen ever

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS 120h. A lot faster and a little bit closer to the coast than the 00Z run. Hit on the Outer Banks, but no landfall in the Carolinas.




Loop

[GaryOBX]

12Z NOGAPS 120h. A lot faster and a little bit closer to the coast than the 00Z run. Hit on the Outer Banks, but no landfall in the Carolinas.

Loop

Thanks for the loop link. However, a hit on the Outer Banks is indeed a landfall in NC.

[WxGuy1]

Geez, the 12z GFS doesn't make landfall anywhere in the southeastern U.S. The image below should be a little easier to tell where Irene is relative to land:



The 132 hr forecasts makes it look like the first US landfall will be in Connecticut or Rhode Island. By this time, there is a larger-amplitude trough to it's immediate west, so it'll probably look like some of the transitioning tropical cyclones with massive poleward outflow (enhanced by upper-level divergence to the east of the upper-level trough) that we see in the mid-latitudes from time to time.

I'm a big believer in trends, which has worked well with this system (just loop the GFS forecasts from the past 4-5 days -- the nearly-universal trend has been eastward with time). It's possible that this marks the end of the trend, but that's impossible to say. I find it highly unlikely that Irene will not make any landfall in the U.S., but any FL landfall now looks extremely unlikely, GA looks quite unlikely as well.

That said, beach erosion and coastal flooding may be issues in some of these places!

[Aric Dunn]

12Z NOGAPS 120h. A lot faster and a little bit closer to the coast than the 00Z run. Hit on the Outer Banks, but no landfall in the Carolinas.

Loop

Thanks for the loop link. However, a hit on the Outer Banks is indeed a landfall in NC.

thats actually a shift west...

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS 120h. A lot faster and a little bit closer to the coast than the 00Z run. Hit on the Outer Banks, but no landfall in the Carolinas.

Loop

Thanks for the loop link. However, a hit on the Outer Banks is indeed a landfall in NC.

Not necessarily. Emily, 1993, for example.

[ncweatherwizard]

Yeah...I guess you're getting into the difference between a landfall and a direct hit. The areas involved experience nearly the same conditions either way.

[jhpigott]

12z HMRF,GDFL and Euro coming up soon?

[clfenwi]

120h CMC. Pretty similar to the 00Z, however, at the end of the run (144h) it goes straight north, making landfall in New England rather than curving away.

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF. Final position is just west of the Great Dismal Swamp, NC. 12Z Saturday forecast position is about 40 miles south of the 06Z run's forecast.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 23

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -70.50 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.20 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.90 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -73.50 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -74.30 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -75.10 LAT: 23.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 24.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 25.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 26.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 27.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 28.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.60 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 29.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -77.20 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 31.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 32.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 33.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 34.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 35.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 36.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[AdamFirst]

GFDL is now rolling.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL. Final point is on the Virginia Eastern Shore. Forecast positionf for 12Z Sunday is about 40 miles northwest of the forecast given in 06Z forecaast

HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.65 LAT: 20.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.25 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.21
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.37 LAT: 20.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.10
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -72.03 LAT: 20.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.78
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -72.63 LAT: 21.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.80
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -73.36 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.25
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -74.27 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.50
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -75.05 LAT: 23.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.79
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -75.82 LAT: 24.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.40
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -76.52 LAT: 25.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):116.81
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.96 LAT: 26.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.69
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.29 LAT: 27.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.79
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.61 LAT: 28.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):118.97
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.67 LAT: 29.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):120.73
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.61 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.11
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.34 LAT: 30.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.04
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -77.09 LAT: 31.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.59
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.73 LAT: 32.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.34
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -76.31 LAT: 33.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.63
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -75.96 LAT: 34.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.64
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -75.77 LAT: 35.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.78
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -75.72 LAT: 36.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.68 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.74
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -75.69 LAT: 37.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.80

[SouthFloridawx]

clefnwi, where do you find that output for the HWRF model?

[ROCK]

927mb....!! you dont see that everyday from the GFDL....maybe the HWRF....sheesh...if this hit NYC as a cat 2 or more a lot of people are going to have a bad day....