ATL: IRENE - Models

[sicktght311]

Anyone else getting a case of the HURRICANE EARL's? I have a feeling this might be eerily similar. Although the track might be 100-200 miles closer to the coast, i could see this thing blowing up, but staying slightly off shore. Outer banks might get a brushing, will miss NYC and Long Island though. Just my feeling. The next 24 hours will be key in seeing if this thing inches eastward, or westward. Just seems theres an awful strong ridge there that will do a lot more northward pulling earlier than expected

[CrazyC83]

Wow looks like an offshore miss is even more likely this morning. Going to be a close call folks.

Depending on the ridge strength, it may still go into the Northeast even if it misses the Southeast.

[Aric Dunn]

Wanting to see (as we always do at this stage) if the WV looks like the model intializations

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

Looks like the trough is getting pinched off around east Tenn. which seems to indicate the ridge filling back in a bit.

well actually if you look there is a small ridge dropping south over Virgina NC/SC .. could keep her more on wnw track a little longer than the models have.

[umguy]

Wanting to see (as we always do at this stage) if the WV looks like the model intializations

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

Looks like the trough is getting pinched off around east Tenn. which seems to indicate the ridge filling back in a bit.

I kinda see the same things.

[Aric Dunn]

Nam is stronger and to the right

[hurricaneCW]

I'm kind of interested where Irene will be by 25N, if she's west of 75.5-76W than I would favor the tracks that take it over eastern N.C, Outer Banks, if she's further east by that time, then an offshore track is very possible.

Irene will effect the east coast no matter what happens because of her size and strength, expect very high waves, rip currents, beach erosion and because she will be interacting with a frontal boundary up north, we could still get heavy rains even if she stays offshore, maybe even TS force winds/gusts.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon the trending east of this track, this could till end up recurving completely away from the united states.
It's going to be a very close call. But even if it does recurve, the surf will still be very high I would think.

[Aric Dunn]

D.R. is a player here, but how much of one un certain
The Mountains (and associated dry air/friction) seem to be keeping Irene somewhat at bay
Would this keep Irene on more wnw track longer? ( steered morte by low level flow?)
Thanks

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-bd.html

yep been expecting that to happen today.

[SouthernBreeze]

How many miles in a Degree of Longitude? I see between 102 & 108 hrs the above data shows it only 1 degree off the coast from me, IF it pans out that way

[Aric Dunn]

Wanting to see (as we always do at this stage) if the WV looks like the model intializations

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv

Looks like the trough is getting pinched off around east Tenn. which seems to indicate the ridge filling back in a bit.

well actually if you look there is a small ridge dropping south over Virgina NC/SC .. could keep her more on wnw track a little longer than the models have.

Also the Irene outflow that was indicating the weakness to the NNE seems to have been cut off. Next 6-12 might be more interesting if that's possible.

well Stacy Stewart mention yesterday morning that the models are showing the outflow and northerly jet to come together and although the models dont seem to notice it but he said it could possibly build the ridge some.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Model suggest this is not a Florida storm.

I am about 95+% confident Florida will not take a hit from Irene.

[canes04]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Models suggest Irene was suppose to start moving NW today. That is not happening.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Might cause a bit of "S" shape or jog in the actual track is my guess. Will be in the cone, but I expect the midpoint of the cone wag a bit next 24 hours. I am not sold out on a smooth recurve as modeled. There is at least one peroid of wobble/freak out in this track. I base that on my observations over time and I also looked at few analog tracks and almost all of them have at least one of these in there.

[mascpa]

How many miles in a Degree of Longitude? I see between 102 & 108 hrs the above data shows it only 1 degree off the coast from me, IF it pans out that way

I believe that it is approx. 60 miles, but I am not 100% certain of that

[BensonTCwatcher]

How many miles in a Degree of Longitude? I see between 102 & 108 hrs the above data shows it only 1 degree off the coast from me, IF it pans out that way

I believe that it is approx. 60 miles, but I am not 100% certain of that

Only at the equator. remember longitude converges at the poles. heres a free one http://www.thiswaytothe.net/tides/boat_tools.shtml

[N2FSU]

How many miles in a Degree of Longitude? I see between 102 & 108 hrs the above data shows it only 1 degree off the coast from me, IF it pans out that way

About 69 miles. It varies depending how far from the equator you are, but 69 is a good rule of thumb.

[N2FSU]

I should clarify, 69 statute miles, 60 nautical miles

[fox13weather]

Based upon the trending east of this track, this could till end up recurving completely away from the united states.
It's going to be a very close call. But even if it does recurve, the surf will still be very high I would think.

High surf? ya think?

[SouthernBreeze]

THANK YOU Everyone for the GREAT INFO!! I LOVE this Site!!

[JPmia]

Interesting.. now the atmospheric conditions are not as perfect as we thought they would be per NHC discussion:
A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE
IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.