ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion
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- Meso
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ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion
BEST TRACK: AL90, 122N 190W, 25kts, DB
Last edited by Meso on Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Meso
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ATL: TEN - Models
Post the model runs for 90L.
It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.
It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.
Last edited by Meso on Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Gustywind
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Code Yellow 20%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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- SEASON_CANCELED
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Meso wrote:It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.
I'm a bit confused (not an unusual condition for me)--when you all write "EURO," are you referring to "UKMET" or is it something different?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Preppie wrote:Meso wrote:It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.
I'm a bit confused (not an unusual condition for me)--when you all write "EURO," are you referring to "UKMET" or is it something different?
ECMWF.
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- Gustywind
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NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir
20110823.0845.90LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-122N-190W.
20110823.0845.90LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-122N-190W.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
First model plots. Looks like the second hurricane of 2011.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 231206
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1206 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110823 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110823 0600 110823 1800 110824 0600 110824 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 19.0W 12.7N 20.7W 13.8N 22.6W 15.0N 24.9W
BAMD 12.2N 19.0W 12.7N 21.5W 13.1N 23.9W 13.4N 26.2W
BAMM 12.2N 19.0W 12.9N 21.3W 13.5N 23.8W 14.1N 26.4W
LBAR 12.2N 19.0W 12.4N 21.7W 12.9N 24.5W 13.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110825 0600 110826 0600 110827 0600 110828 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 27.0W 16.8N 29.3W 16.8N 29.0W 16.1N 29.3W
BAMD 13.5N 28.4W 14.1N 32.2W 15.1N 33.6W 15.5N 33.3W
BAMM 14.6N 28.9W 15.3N 32.0W 15.8N 32.7W 16.0N 32.4W
LBAR 14.5N 30.2W 16.4N 34.7W 18.3N 37.4W 17.9N 38.7W
SHIP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 79KTS
DSHP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 79KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 19.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 16.8W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 14.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- Nightwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
so... more underway... wait and see where these goes :{
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The only thing we really get for free is the weather...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
So do the models eventually recurve it or is it to early to tell?
And why are the steering currents so weak all of a sudden in the Eastern Atlantic?(wave is moving 10mph vs 20-25mph).
Is this expected to change in the near future?
And why are the steering currents so weak all of a sudden in the Eastern Atlantic?(wave is moving 10mph vs 20-25mph).
Is this expected to change in the near future?
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- Tampa_God
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Is this the storm that some models have being just northeast of the Lesser Antilles as a pretty big storm?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
This system is developed by the Euro, GFS and UKMET, it is expected to follow a north/northwestern track so I don't think anyone need to worry, could be like Lisa last year.
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- Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Preppie wrote:Meso wrote:It looks as though both the EURO and GFS are developing this system within the next 3 days.
I'm a bit confused (not an unusual condition for me)--when you all write "EURO," are you referring to "UKMET" or is it something different?
ECMWF.
Thank you.
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Yeah probably will follow 98L, I suspect conditions will be a little more favourable for this one though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
It should be a recurver, not totally sure of a fish, set-up aloft could imply a Bermuda threat a long way down the line.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 925 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. WHILE THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS... UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 925 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. WHILE THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS... UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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