ATL: IRENE - Models

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS 120h. This is a shift to the right from the 00Z, which placed Irene at the SC/NC line.

[chris_fit]

I'm pretty sure we have enough model consensus (throwing out the GFDL, which so far has done pretty bad with this storm) to say the EC of FL should be in the clear, minus high surf.

[chris_fit]

+78hrs... well east of FL



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[UpTheCreek]

Ptracker that is noa a brash. That is around Raleigh. That would nail all of eastern NC and head for the most populus areas of the country. A worse case scenario I'm afraid.

Agree, that could definitely leave a very big mark!

Nope check again. Just brushes OBX. NC on weak side of storm here.

True, it isn't Raleigh in the center. But if it's a 3 or a 4, it's not a "brush" either, no matter what side of the storm you're on. Inside of the OBX are very large sounds into which Irene will push water way up many rivers. It would be catastrophic. I'm 30 miles inland and my house could be bye bye and it the wind might not even get over tropical storm strength.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I'm not convinced FL sounds the all clear - till she's passed 30N.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF still WSW of last run. Everyone trends east, HWRF trends slightly west. Of course.

[chris_fit]

+90... waves goodbye to FL



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[Aric Dunn]

Unfortunately I have seen this soooooo many times.. the right turn gets sharper and sharper... and the hurricane especially large powerful ones just dont cant do that type of sharp turn. hence from my recent knowledge I have never seen a hurricane turn exactly when the models said would again especially large powerful ones... instead the turn is very gradual till they are finally moving more north than west before it lifts out.. another analogy would be trying to turn a heavy bowling ball with a rubber band its going continue rolling in basically the same direction and slowly turn...

[chris_fit]

+114hrs... seems to be moving still W of due N



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[Aric Dunn]

I'm not convinced FL sounds the all clear - till she's passed 30N.

not in the clear at all.. not even south florida.

[chris_fit]

Unfortunately I have seen this soooooo many times.. the right turn gets sharper and sharper... and the hurricane especially large powerful ones just dont can cant do that type of sharp turn. hence from my recent knowledge I have never seen a hurricane turn exactly when the models said would again especially large powerful ones... instead the turn is very gradual till they are finally moving more north than west before it lifts out.. another analogy would be trying to turn a heavy bowling ball with a rubber band its going continue rolling in basically the same direction and slowly turn...

What about Floyd?

[gatorcane]

Unfortunately I have seen this soooooo many times.. the right turn gets sharper and sharper... and the hurricane especially large powerful ones just dont can cant do that type of sharp turn. hence from my recent knowledge I have never seen a hurricane turn exactly when the models said would again especially large powerful ones... instead the turn is very gradual till they are finally moving more north than west before it lifts out.. another analogy would be trying to turn a heavy bowling ball with a rubber band its going continue rolling in basically the same direction and slowly turn...

yeah, how about the pumping up the ridge scenario that Stewart mentions in the 5AM disco

[Kohlecane]

[quote="chris_fit"]+114hrs... seems to be moving still W of due N



Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/quListen im In Charleston, how is the ridging looking, or is this more than likely gonna shift more and more east

[Evil Jeremy]

Unfortunately I have seen this soooooo many times.. the right turn gets sharper and sharper... and the hurricane especially large powerful ones just dont can cant do that type of sharp turn. hence from my recent knowledge I have never seen a hurricane turn exactly when the models said would again especially large powerful ones... instead the turn is very gradual till they are finally moving more north than west before it lifts out.. another analogy would be trying to turn a heavy bowling ball with a rubber band its going continue rolling in basically the same direction and slowly turn...

It wasnt a powerful hurricane (lol), but It was similar with Emily. She kept chugging west, and the forecasted turn became to steep to be believable. Storms rarely turn on the dime.

[AdamFirst]

Crazy uncle HWRF trends west. Priceless.

Now to see what the GFDL does...

[Kohlecane]

Listen im In Charleston, how is the ridging looking, or is this more than likely gonna shift more and more east

[SouthFLTropics]

Unfortunately I have seen this soooooo many times.. the right turn gets sharper and sharper... and the hurricane especially large powerful ones just dont can cant do that type of sharp turn. hence from my recent knowledge I have never seen a hurricane turn exactly when the models said would again especially large powerful ones... instead the turn is very gradual till they are finally moving more north than west before it lifts out.. another analogy would be trying to turn a heavy bowling ball with a rubber band its going continue rolling in basically the same direction and slowly turn...

yeah, how about the pumping up the ridge scenario that Stewart mentions in the 5AM disco

I don't think the NHC is sold on it making the sharper right hand turn either. They have stayed to the left of the consensus on the last two updates. I think the NHC is holding their cards close to their chest right now and is waiting to see the G-IV data and waiting to see what she looks like after interacting with Hispaniola before they place their chips on the table.

I said it earlier and I'll say it again...When Stacey Stewart speaks, I listen. It sounded to me like he had many doubts as to whether it will make the pronounced turn or not.

I can make a 100% accurate prediction right now without a doubt. Storm2k will be very busy overnight with many members on board watching the 00z runs come in!!!

SFT

[chris_fit]

12Z HWRF is a little left of the previous run.... Here is the final point @ 126hrs



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Now for the GFDL

[chris_fit]

If the GFDL jumps ship to the east on this run... we (FL Folks) should be good.

[gatorcane]

If GFDL misses Hispaniola it may shift a little more right.