ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

ozonepete, that radar loop shows the center is tightening and heading near due west at the moment exactly like the global models are forecasting.

I've gotta admit the ECM has got me a little worried this morning...given this wion't recurve the further east it curves to the NNW/N the more strongewr this could be by Flordia/east coast.

[wzrgirl1]

5am forecast for 120 hours....a Cat 1 moving north from Miami-Dade into Broward (due west of Fort Lauderdale by about 30 miles)

120H 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

Crap I just saw this when I woke up. This could be a little reserved on intensity imo as well. The media will be all over this tomorrow morning on the first day of school. Today for me, is the day to fill up the tanks and visit Wal Mart for a little more water. I have 20 gallons but not near enough for 3 people and two animals. Now, I start to get a tad bit concerned. Maybe the track may change some in the next couple of days, but I will take no chances and I hope nobody else in my area does not either. Check your supplies today. Don't panic.

[jinftl]

Boy oh boy is it going to get interesting down here once florida wakes up to this...

[TwisterFanatic]

New Cone.. Hurricane Watches now up for PR

[KWT]

Quite close to PR as well there!

With 36hrs over water, 75kts would be more then reasonable forecast.

[jinftl]

excerpt from NHC Discussion at 5am:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION IRENE HAS
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND WHAT THE INNER CORE
OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
CUBA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

ONCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HOWEVER...IRENE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER IN
THE ATLANTIC TO TAP INTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

[wzrgirl1]

Should the graphic on the front page be updated to now reflect a hurricane going into south florida rather than a tropical storm?

[northjaxpro]

Boy oh boy is it going to get interesting down here once florida wakes up to this...

It has my 100% undivided attention jinftl. What a week this is going to be.

[HurricaneQueen]

Post deleted

[jinftl]

And in a few hours, millions of floridians will awake to this image in the media and newspapers.

Boy oh boy is it going to get interesting down here once florida wakes up to this...

It has my 100% undivided attention jinftl. What a week this is going to be.

[ozonepete]

They're getting warm, but still too far south on the location of the center and the forecast track. They'll have to gradually nudge it northward. I eagerly wait for Aric to wake up and put this story straight.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

Boy oh boy is it going to get interesting down here once florida wakes up to this...

its like watching a reality show when the media interviews south florida residents preparing for a hurricane, we could have a whole thread(entertainment thread) just about that...i will keep my posts to a minimum about the things i see and hear the next few days but some of it is so good it just has to be posted, the media wont be immune either as they can be equally as entertaining and they are supposed to have it at least close to correct

[ozonepete]

This will be an east coast hurricane. Can't see it getting past 80W or so because the center is too far north already.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

This will be an east coast hurricane. Can't see it getting past 80W or so because the center is too far north already.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is beginning to trend that way for right now at least. It looks as if Irene will begin to make the bend just as she gets by about 73 degrees longitude leaving the vicinity of Hispaniola. Of course, how long she hovers around that island is another matter in itself.

[jinftl]

Each advisory, the NHC issues specific probabilities of sustained winds of 39 mph, 58 mph, and 74 mph effecting various locations during the next 120 hours. The trend of these probabilities can be very significant in showing where a given threat is increasing, and where a given threat is decreasing.

Here is a summary of those probabilities for various Florida locations. You can see a big jump in probabilities from last night's to this morning's advisory. I will update this graphic as new data gets released by the NHC.



link to NHC data: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/re ... 1404.shtml?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if the storm strengthens rapidly, doesn't that have a feedback affect on the ridge? we've seen strong storms do that to the ridge in the past, making it build/become stronger. normally a stronger storm heads more poleward, as long as there is a weakness. but without the weakness yet, it could make the ridge stronger and in the short term have a more westerly component as it progresses near hispanola. that would make the curving around the periphery potentially take a wee bit longer before it would occur. will be very interesting to watch the models development of the ridge through teh week, whether they believe it will build back, and if so, how rapidly, if at all.
so much in play here.
concerning that the more northern relocation may allow for a scrape of hispanola to the northern side of the island and missing a lot of cuba too. storm would stay over warmest waters longer prior to FL landfall, or to east of it. best case actually is rapid intensification that really feels the weakness and heads east of florida. not good for carolinas down the road though. ugh, just bad scenario developing for someone. doesn't look like conus will escape this one.

[ozonepete]

I expect the west coast probabilities will be going down and east coast's will go up from here on.

[ozonepete]

if the storm strengthens rapidly, doesn't that have a feedback affect on the ridge? we've seen strong storms do that to the ridge in the past, making it build/become stronger. normally a stronger storm heads more poleward, as long as there is a weakness. but without the weakness yet, it could make the ridge stronger and in the short term have a more westerly component as it progresses near hispanola. that would make the curving around the periphery potentially take a wee bit longer before it would occur. will be very interesting to watch the models development of the ridge through teh week, whether they believe it will build back, and if so, how rapidly, if at all.
so much in play here.
concerning that the more northern relocation may allow for a scrape of hispanola to the northern side of the island and missing a lot of cuba too. storm would stay over warmest waters longer prior to FL landfall, or to east of it. best case actually is rapid intensification that really feels the weakness and heads east of florida. not good for carolinas down the road though. ugh, just bad scenario developing for someone. doesn't look like conus will escape this one.

I agree that somewhere on the east coast is in trouble, especialy if it passes just north of Hispaniola and has a long time over warm water. I think that the east coast of Florida and the Carolinas should be watching this very carefully.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

The trend that emerges can be telling for sure...there is a certain level of increase that will happen as the time of the potential wind event draws nearer, but if we see the Miami-Cocoa Beach probabilities increasing at a much faster rate than the Key West-Tampa probabilities, that indicates a track along the east coast is more likely (as of the time of the advisory).

I will add in some Bahamas data as well to see if the trend is towards the highest probabilities moving east of FL.

:uarrow: I expect the west coast probabilities will be going down and east coast's will go up from here on.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yup ozonepete, that looks like the latest trend. this far out, getting closer and closer, the likelihood of a swing back west decreases, making me more confident that week's end will be no more than a bit blustery here in Tampa Bay.