According to the latest NHC numbers, the probability Irene will be dissipated in 120 hours (due to land interaction that kills her off) is 15%. The probability she will be a hurricane in 120 hours is 20%.

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HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
ozonepete wrote:Ok, I know I asked before when it was a little yellow aberration, but what is that big blue hole? Anyone?
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:NHC:
...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
Aric Dunn wrote:ozonepete wrote:Ok, I know I asked before when it was a little yellow aberration, but what is that big blue hole? Anyone?
nothing a gap in the convection from the squall line to the west wrapping around the new center.
fci wrote:Good research.
I am not minimizing the potential threat but have a lot of recollections of Eastern Cuba beating the snot out of storms. You mentioned Debby and I remember Ernesto that was progged to potentially be a 2/3 when it got to SE FL
Here is a quote from the discussion at 5am Aug 26th 2006
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
EDIT: I saw Mike's comment about 2 snowflakes being different and I am not at all saying Irene has the same synpotics as Ernesto did or Debby.
I am just pointing out that we have seen what Eastern Cuba and Haiti (Hispanola) can do to a storm and that the strength of the storm post-Cuba can be incredibly sapped.
David went into Hispanola as a killer, Cat 4 or 5 I believe and even though it hit West Palm as a weak Cat 1, the forecast was scary for what would be coming into South Florida and it was a whole lot weaker than expected.
Nonetheless, this is a scary situation given the consensus and consistency of the models..
Aric Dunn wrote:Thats ok they will find it farther N when recon gets there.. no big deal this late at night. just its likely to strengthen tonight... lol
well going to sleep for a while..
Adoquín wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Thats ok they will find it farther N when recon gets there.. no big deal this late at night. just its likely to strengthen tonight... lol
well going to sleep for a while..
thank you Aric! I now know why I will have to get up early and warn family. People here will not expect it when they wake up, especially on a Sunday, with people partying outside in my old San Juan neighborhood. Not surprised, we were overdue.
MWatkins wrote:Center probably still on the southwest side of that vigorous mid level circulation, envelope seems to be a little elongated from SW to NE. However, once the ridge weakens the system should consolidate and deepen pretty quickly from there. Overall, the structure of this system continues to be impressive.
MW
seussianagenda wrote:As the models continue to trend east, I'm really worried about the possibility of an direct hit to the Hampton Roads Area. Our area, with the exception of isabel, has been REALLY spared from any major hits. The people here are so complacent. So many misses have really jaded the residents. If this thing bombs off the florida coast and hits that warm water off the coast who knows. It could come in at the NC/SC border and really do some MAJOR damage. I'll be keeping my tanks full all week.
wxsouth wrote:I find the "discussion" over the center shifting north interesting. In fact...the system is evolving very much as the large scale guidance is predicting. For instance, the 18z (and 12z) forecast the low level pressure center to be south of the mid-level (500mb) vort max through midday Sunday before they stack and the real intensification begins. The mid-level vort is actually progged to move straight west just north of Guadaloupe tonight with the low level center moving just north of west a little further to the south. Radar and satellite imagery shows this to be the case.
So while there is a whole lot of hand-wringing on the low-level center reforming farther north and shifting the track farther north...in reality the system is developing as forecast and is on track to follow the forecast path along or just south of southern coast of Hispaniola.
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