ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[jinftl]

As far as potential impacts on the U.S., i think it is safe to say that Hispanola is the major wild card that will determine alot...even more than track at this point.

According to the latest NHC numbers, the probability Irene will be dissipated in 120 hours (due to land interaction that kills her off) is 15%. The probability she will be a hurricane in 120 hours is 20%.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NHC:

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

[BatzVI]

First rains about to start in St. Thomas...

[ozonepete]

Ok, I know I asked before when it was a little yellow aberration, but what is that big blue hole? Anyone?

[Aric Dunn]

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

Yeah figured they would say that.. was undeniable

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210545
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 60.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO
CABO ENGANO

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...REPORTS FROM RADAR...SATELLITE...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE
HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
60.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. IRENE COULD APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

[Aric Dunn]

Ok, I know I asked before when it was a little yellow aberration, but what is that big blue hole? Anyone?

nothing a gap in the convection from the squall line to the west wrapping around the new center.

[jinftl]

That is going to shift the track at 5am!!!

2am location: LOCATION...16.0N 60.4W


At the 11pm Forecast, Irene wasn't set to hit 16N latitude until 150 miles further west
12H 21/1200Z 16.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

NHC:

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

[ozonepete]

Ok, I know I asked before when it was a little yellow aberration, but what is that big blue hole? Anyone?

nothing a gap in the convection from the squall line to the west wrapping around the new center.

But where is the new center?

[Aric Dunn]

thats actually still a little to far south.. up more around 16.3n 60.5w

[bamajammer4eva]

Good research.
I am not minimizing the potential threat but have a lot of recollections of Eastern Cuba beating the snot out of storms. You mentioned Debby and I remember Ernesto that was progged to potentially be a 2/3 when it got to SE FL

Here is a quote from the discussion at 5am Aug 26th 2006
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.


EDIT: I saw Mike's comment about 2 snowflakes being different and I am not at all saying Irene has the same synpotics as Ernesto did or Debby.
I am just pointing out that we have seen what Eastern Cuba and Haiti (Hispanola) can do to a storm and that the strength of the storm post-Cuba can be incredibly sapped.
David went into Hispanola as a killer, Cat 4 or 5 I believe and even though it hit West Palm as a weak Cat 1, the forecast was scary for what would be coming into South Florida and it was a whole lot weaker than expected.

Nonetheless, this is a scary situation given the consensus and consistency of the models..

True the islands have saved Florida and the US from a lot of storms. More often than no, any hurricane that crosses them is a mere shadow of its former self. There of course are exceptions like the Galveston Hurricane 1900 and Hurricane Georges 1998 that went on to cause major damage so agreed that every situation is different. If I remember correctly, Jeanne 2004 was almost declassified to an open wave after its tour of Hispaniola and we know the rest of the story there. Islands may save the US despite what the models and NHC say or they may not.

[Aric Dunn]

Thats ok they will find it farther N when recon gets there.. no big deal this late at night. just its likely to strengthen tonight... lol

well going to sleep for a while..

[Adoquín]

Thats ok they will find it farther N when recon gets there.. no big deal this late at night. just its likely to strengthen tonight... lol

well going to sleep for a while..

thank you Aric! I now know why I will have to get up early and warn family. People here will not expect it when they wake up, especially on a Sunday, with people partying outside in my old San Juan neighborhood. Not surprised, we were overdue.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Thats ok they will find it farther N when recon gets there.. no big deal this late at night. just its likely to strengthen tonight... lol

well going to sleep for a while..

thank you Aric! I now know why I will have to get up early and warn family. People here will not expect it when they wake up, especially on a Sunday, with people partying outside in my old San Juan neighborhood. Not surprised, we were overdue.

Too bad the next official projected track is in 3 hours... Lets wait...

[seussianagenda]

As the models continue to trend east, I'm really worried about the possibility of an direct hit to the Hampton Roads Area. Our area, with the exception of isabel, has been REALLY spared from any major hits. The people here are so complacent. So many misses have really jaded the residents. If this thing bombs off the florida coast and hits that warm water off the coast who knows. It could come in at the NC/SC border and really do some MAJOR damage. I'll be keeping my tanks full all week.

[Vortex]

Center probably still on the southwest side of that vigorous mid level circulation, envelope seems to be a little elongated from SW to NE. However, once the ridge weakens the system should consolidate and deepen pretty quickly from there. Overall, the structure of this system continues to be impressive.

MW

Good to see you around mike....Late nights ahead

[Lifesgud2]

Def going to be plenty of speculation here the next 3 days. Let's try and have as much accurate info as possible. I know I'm looking forwRd to reading some. Be safe

[SouthFLTropics]

Let me throw something out there for discussion...If I recall I believe the models in the past have had trouble with ULL's in the vicinity of developing cyclones. Is it possible we are seeing a more WNW and/or NW initial motion due to the ULL that has been camped out NE of PR? Maybe the ULL has created somewhat of a weakness in the ridge that the models did not pick up on. Just some food for thought? I would be interested to hear everyone else's take on this thought.

SFT

[fci]

As the models continue to trend east, I'm really worried about the possibility of an direct hit to the Hampton Roads Area. Our area, with the exception of isabel, has been REALLY spared from any major hits. The people here are so complacent. So many misses have really jaded the residents. If this thing bombs off the florida coast and hits that warm water off the coast who knows. It could come in at the NC/SC border and really do some MAJOR damage. I'll be keeping my tanks full all week.

Yes, you need to keep your vigilance.
Landfall and effects that far north are several days away but the relocation to the north and uncertainty that far out warrant attention paid by everyone on the East Coast and Eastern Gulf of Mexico too.

[Adoquín]

I find the "discussion" over the center shifting north interesting. In fact...the system is evolving very much as the large scale guidance is predicting. For instance, the 18z (and 12z) forecast the low level pressure center to be south of the mid-level (500mb) vort max through midday Sunday before they stack and the real intensification begins. The mid-level vort is actually progged to move straight west just north of Guadaloupe tonight with the low level center moving just north of west a little further to the south. Radar and satellite imagery shows this to be the case.

So while there is a whole lot of hand-wringing on the low-level center reforming farther north and shifting the track farther north...in reality the system is developing as forecast and is on track to follow the forecast path along or just south of southern coast of Hispaniola.

The crow that has just been delivered offsets by far that patronizing use of the quotation marks to dismiss the concerns of people at risk.