wxsouth wrote:I find the "discussion" over the center shifting north interesting. In fact...the system is evolving very much as the large scale guidance is predicting. For instance, the 18z (and 12z) forecast the low level pressure center to be south of the mid-level (500mb) vort max through midday Sunday before they stack and the real intensification begins. The mid-level vort is actually progged to move straight west just north of Guadaloupe tonight with the low level center moving just north of west a little further to the south. Radar and satellite imagery shows this to be the case.
So while there is a whole lot of hand-wringing on the low-level center reforming farther north and shifting the track farther north...in reality the system is developing as forecast and is on track to follow the forecast path along or just south of southern coast of Hispaniola.
AGREED!!!! Guidance is doing a pretty darn good job so far.
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