ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bella_may]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

I meant in the long range official nhc track LOL

[TBCaneFreak]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

Im sure the GFDL will have that solution in its next run...The latest initialized too far west tehn boms it up to a cat 3 in 36hrs....

[SouthDadeFish]

If Irene takes the 11pm NHC track it would probably get shredded pretty good:

[TBCaneFreak]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

I meant in the long range official nhc track LOL

Gotta love humor...Im afraid we here in Tampa Bay will be in cone @11p
PS I kinda knew what you meant...was just funnin

[Ivanhater]

Track shift west a bit?

[MWatkins]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

Actually, the system is going to slow down in the coming days.

If the system is at 59 west, and for rounding sake, and say the GOM starts around 80 west. That's 21 degrees of longitude.

At a forward speed of 20 knots, that's one degree of movement every 3 hours (60 knots = 1 degree). Assuming no northward component of motion, the system could travel 8 degrees a day (24/3 = 8). That would get it to the GOM in less than three days.

Irene is going to slow down as the ridge to the north weakens, and many of the models have it traveling at half it's current speed when it gets there.

So yeah no way it gets there tomorrow

MW

[Sanibel]

People thought GFDL was going nuts when it brought Ike south of Cuba early on. Ike went south of Cuba. Not saying Irene will follow the eccentric GFDL track, but you have to pay attention when GFDL goes eccentric first and south in this area.

[ozonepete]

If Irene takes the 11pm NHC track it would probably get shredded pretty good:

Looks to me like it's already going WNW.

EDIT: Obviously I'm not using that forecast for my analysis of how it's moving...

[SouthernBreeze]

http://64.19.142.12/tropic.ssec.wisc.ed ... g8wvir.GIF

http://64.19.142.11/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... W.76pc.jpg

http://64.19.142.13/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

http://64.19.142.11/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

Oops - the IP #'s need to be dropped from the last 3 links....

Thanks for Links though!

[SFLcane]

If Irene takes the 11pm NHC track it would probably get shredded pretty good:

I smell another dud...emily

[bella_may]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

Actually, the system is going to slow down in the coming days.

If the system is at 59 west, and for rounding sake, and say the GOM starts around 80 west. That's 21 degrees of longitude.

At a forward speed of 20 knots, that's one degree of movement every 3 hours (60 knots = 1 degree). Assuming no northward component of motion, the system could travel 8 degrees a day (24/3 = 8). That would get it to the GOM in less than three days.
That's not what I was saying. I was talking about in the long range LOL
Irene is going to slow down as the ridge to the north weakens, and many of the models have it traveling at half it's current speed when it gets there.

So yeah no way it gets there tomorrow

MW

[ConvergenceZone]

If this track shifts a bit more west left, we are going to be in serious trouble! It will then traverse over only the western and southern areas of Cuba as opposed to the lengthy part of it... If it shifts anymore west, expect the intensity forecasts to go up. Plus then it might miss Haiti completely.

[USTropics]

Right now the GFDL is an outlier model, keeping this pretty far south compared to the other model runs. However, if this were to stay in the open waters and avoid land, I don't see anything that would prevent it from reaching major hurricane status. Not as quickly as the GFDL suggests, but we did just see Harvey strengthen pretty quickly even with land proximity (the NHC last night thought it might even reach hurricane strength). Anyways, The 00z runs of the models should be the most accurate to date. They'll have the latest recon data and now a storm initialization point.

[ozonepete]

If Irene takes the 11pm NHC track it would probably get shredded pretty good:

I smell another dud...emily

But Emily looked nothing like this at this point.

[SeminoleWind]

Track shift west a bit?

doesn't look like it to me, looks like they just extended the cone a lil.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

but it does look like they expect it to be a hurricane sooner this time.

[cycloneye]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

[bella_may]

I was talking about in the long range LOL

[Ivanhater]

Yep..track shifted slightly west

[Aric Dunn]

The way this thing is looking right now and the LLC seems to be tightening up... overnight and tomorrow should see some strengthening ... maybe more than forecast by morning

[Ivanhater]

Very interesting discussion from NHC

HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.