ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve H.]

Southdadefish, I think you mean 59.4.

[SouthDadeFish]

Southdadefish, I think you mean 59.4.

Oops! Sorry, yeah I've been looking at too many numbers today, thanks for the correction

[Gustywind]

Hard to see things clearly, but I think the center is at 15.5N 69.4W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

69,4W? sure? 59,4W maybe, looks like a mistake from you .... but we will be glad us in the Leewards to see this number (69,4W compared to 59,4W )

[RL3AO]

recon tomorrow morning? are they nuts? they need to send a recon earlier than that based on appereance alone and the suspected center reformation at 16. Not many people are aware in the islands of what is going on and many will not realize they have a problem until Irene is basically on top of them. Of course that horrendous looking squall line in front is sure going to be a wake up call.

With satellite, radar, and surface obs NHC will be able to stay on top of any strengthening until recon gets there in the morning.

[SouthDadeFish]

Hard to see things clearly, but I think the center is at 15.5N 69.4W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

69,4W? sure? 59,4W maybe, looks like a mistake from you .... but we will be glad us in the Leewards to see this number (69,4W compared to 59,4W )

Sorry, yeah definitely meant 59.4W!

[TheDreamTraveler]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

Nah I would expect that Katrina was a once in a lifetime storm. None other should even come close.

once in a lifetime? not even close...just happened to hit in a massively populated area in the United States

When Hurricane Katrina hit it was a much weaker storm than when it was at its peak. It hit a very populated area that was below sea level with failing levees. So using Katrina as a comparison for a once in a lifetime storm isn't very accurate.

[Gustywind]

Hard to see things clearly, but I think the center is at 15.5N 69.4W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

69,4W? sure? 59,4W maybe, looks like a mistake from you .... but we will be glad us in the Leewards to see this number (69,4W compared to 59,4W )

Sorry, yeah definitely meant 59.4W!

No problem, thanks for your job

[Gustywind]

Looks like Irene continues to improve and making a pretty approach near Dominica and... Guadeloupe

[ozonepete]

Here on the northside of St. Thomas...winds are ENE @ 16 gusting to 22 but no rain as yet

Thanks for the report. Can you keep us posted once in a while if you can, please?

[stormhunter7]

Clearly looking at IR Shortwave... center appears to me a bit right and more north of forecast point. Would expect slight shift in short term forecast.. after that.. general thinking still the same down the road.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[Hylian Auree]

My best guess for the center is just south of 16N and west of 59W; appears to be somewhat broad so pinpointing it down entirely is pretty hard, especially at night.

[bella_may]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

[Gustywind]

Latest weather conditions in Guadeloupe...

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M


Conditions at Aug 20, 2011 - 10:00 PM
2011.08.21 0200 UTC
Wind from the N (010 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TFFR 210200Z 01006KT 9999 -SHRA SCT013 BKN040 25/24 Q1011 TEMPO SHRA

[GCANE]

I thought shear would be higher now due to the TUTT.

Its not, CIMSS has it at 2.9m/s. Waiting on AMSU for an up date.

Poleward outflow is tremendous for a TS, definetly pushing the TUTT winds out of the way.

Convection is in pulse mode with a high rain-rate cell firing about 3 hrs ago.

Currently it is firing light rain-rate.



http://64.19.142.12/tropic.ssec.wisc.ed ... g8wvir.GIF

http://64.19.142.11/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... W.76pc.jpg

http://64.19.142.13/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

http://64.19.142.11/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... bean.0.jpg

[stormhunter7]

15.4N 59.5W? thats what i think is the center.. Irene is still got a way to go to be better organized... good thing for the lee ward islands

[SouthDadeFish]

It looks like the structure is gradually improving:



Outflow is fantastic.

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210252
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THE GUADELOUPE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BANDING
ALONG WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL VORTEX...WHICH IS ALSO VISIBLE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT AND THE
NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY THROUGH IRENE
AROUND 1200 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IRENE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION. AFTER THAT TIME...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.

WITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
AS THE STORM TRAVERSES VERY WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR
CONDITIONS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION OCCURS WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE CURRENT TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SPINE OF CUBA BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER IRENE MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

OF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.3N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.0N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 19.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 21.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0000Z 24.5N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

...IRENE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO
CABO ENGANO

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 210239
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO CABO ENGANO

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 59.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 59.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 59.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 62.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 68.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 70.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 24.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 59.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[TBCaneFreak]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

[stormhunter7]

darn... i was close! haha

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 59.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

[bamajammer4eva]

Is this storm similar to or expected to be as large as Katrina was in size. Everyone is saying how large Irene is.

Nah I would expect that Katrina was a once in a lifetime storm. None other should even come close.

once in a lifetime? not even close...just happened to hit in a massively populated area in the United States

When Hurricane Katrina hit it was a much weaker storm than when it was at its peak. It hit a very populated area that was below sea level with failing levees. So using Katrina as a comparison for a once in a lifetime storm isn't very accurate.[/quote]


Ok rare, unlikely and unusual. You don't see a cat 5 every year in the Gulf.