ATL: IRENE - Models

[indian]

where does the gfdl end up making landfall at?

[psyclone]

Irene is a good 200 miles north of where Ivan was at the same longitude. That is significant, esp with a trough expected to impact the storm in some way...not to mention landmasses that could rip her apart.

Irene is at 14.9N 58.5W, compared to:

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...EAST OF TOBAGO.

Ivan's example track is exactly what i've been thinking as well although in an earlier post this morning i said dennis (2005) but farther east. that rare panama city/apalachicola/st george island hit wouldn't surprise me at all. should such an event occur, even if the storm isn't strong...if the windfield is big there could be quite a water rise in the big bend area. recall that st marks was inundated with 10 feet of water when dennis hit the western panhandle!

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sorry for the confusion. i was referring not to hurrican ivan but ivanhater's historical hurricane track he posted that showed a south florida to apalachicola hit.

[SouthDadeFish]

Won't the GFDL shift the TVCN left?

[Ivanhater]

Won't the GFDL shift the TVCN left?

Yes

[Rgv20]

where does the gfdl end up making landfall at?

Run ends at the 126hr mark.

[pricetag56]

:uarrow: Let's just say if the 18Z GFDL verifies.... It wouldn't be good.

wouldnt be good is an understatement it would traverse some the hottest deepest water in this hemisphere you would be lookin at a katrina with the set up

[KWT]

Big differences from the HWRF and the GFDL.

The HWRF is living in lala land if it thinks a 125kts hurricane will by in that position after several days of land interaction BUT the general idea seems very possible based on the ECM/GFS...

The GFDL is worrying because the intensity looks good IF it takes that track, would very likely be a 4/5...

[PTPatrick]

I dont know where the HWRF is getting the strength...the damn thing goes over Hispanola and the most moutainous part of Eastern Cuba and manages to come out and make a run at cat 5 in a matter of hours. Anything is possible, but I am not buying a cat 4/5 with that track.

Storms curving at this latitude with changing high strength and positions, are notorious for large 5 day track errors...I think anwhere from NOLA to Miami is in play here. More south FL, but If I was between Apalachicola and NOLA I would be watching carefully.

Also find it odd that GFDL and HWRF are so far off. Its crazy to me that just 4 years ago the GFDL was still "the chosen one"...and the tracks of the 2 models where rarely that different.

[rockyman]

No matter how you slice it, when ANY of the models show a Cat 4/5 entering the Gulf by way of the Yucatan Channel, my concern level here on the north central Gulf Coast increases dramatically.

[psyclone]

boy the gfdl went nuts. from a non developing wave to a cat 5 (or very nearly) in one run. and much farther west. the plot continues to thicken.

[gatorcane]

Won't the GFDL shift the TVCN left?

Yes

Yes it will but:

I don't think the NHC cone would shift much if at all. They will likely treat this as an outlier.

Plus, I don't know what the GFDL is thinking as it would surely hit that huge weakness over the EGOM and Florida being that strong at 72 hours.

and I can't even remember when the GFS and Euro have shown this much agreement and have been flat out wrong.

I would definitely lean more towards those models (especially the Euro) since it is much better with mid-lattitude features.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[pricetag56]

Wow that GFDL is nuts, goes down to something like 920mbs!!

Still, the models show a VERY favourable set-up aloft, given the amount of land interaction GFS/ECM show and still having it as a hurricane by landfall is ringing big alarm bells!

not suprising when itll be going over an area with some of the highest heat content in the world if it takes the GFDL track

[Aric Dunn]

look. The most reliable model (euro) has been consistently over the eastern gulf or Florida since monday.. minus like 3 or 4 runs that were slightly farther west but still near the florida panhandle. and the gfs in the mix and you have that majority of what the NHC uses. the GFDL has done terrible this year as well as the hwrf but at least the hwrf is in line with every other model. so all this back and forth with the models after 5 days is normal and still this is the best consensus I have seen the models have in a very long time. the Texas ridge does not seem to be moving or forecast to just yet so LA west seems very low.. east of there is well within the error of nearly all models after 5 days.. I know its fun to watch and keep track of .. I do it myself. but I have seen a lot of "huge" and "big" shifts talk when in fact there has not been in this entire last 6 days.. its pretty amazing actually.... here is the image I made on monday morning of the models consensus from the prior 2 days.. notice it has not changed since then.. lol

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, if the GFDL verified, it would be the worse possible scenerio of all of the models so far....It would be fantasic news for the islands, but horrible news for the U.S... a BOMB in the gulf.....I don't want to say let's hope this track shifts east, because that's not fair to our fellow islanders.... Not sure what to say.


Thank God it's just one model and one run.

[Ivanhater]

Won't the GFDL shift the TVCN left?

Yes

Yes it will but:

I don't think the NHC cone would shift much if at all. They will likely treat this as an outlier.

Plus, I don't know what the GFDL is thinking as it would surely hit that huge weakness over the EGOM and Florida being that strong at 72 hours.

and I can't even remember when the GFS and Euro have shown this much agreement and have been flat out wrong.

I would definitely lean more towards those models (especially the Euro) since it is much better with mid-lattitude features.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Totally agree with the NHC not budging much but it will make them pause. However, the GFDL is not an outlier...actually the camp is split pretty evenly with GFDL UKMET CANADIAN and Euro Ensembles and GFS Ensembles further west....No one let their guard down

[gatorcane]

Ivan, yeah I certainly agree with nobody letting their guard down. What if the 00Z models make a big left shift. All I have to say is

Plus if the GFDL gets this right, huge victory for that model over the mighty ECMWF and GFS.

[TBCaneFreak]

BTW here is what I am talking about by the angle smoothing out further left with each run after hitting South Florida

Could be a similar track as Hurricane 2 in 1899

And if it isnt a "Trend" it still looks to me to be a panhandle threat to me...I thought all along this would either cut thru Florida (ala Erin) or ride thru E Gulf and strike there...Odds on Favorite that is what will happen...Probably has little chance of makingit past Biloxi...IMO

I get it...our thoughts are very similar...notice my comments at the beginning of our discussion of the TREND WEST comment after the 18z run

[South Texas Storms]

Will the 0z models have the recon data in it tonight?

[gatorcane]

Latest spaghetti plot with updated GFDL:

[indian]

i am not trying to get no enemys on here i really enjoy this forum...there are some really smart people on here that i really respect there knowledge of tropical weather...i just feel the models will trend more to the west as time goes on...i may be wrong and GOD be with the folks who have to deal with this storm cause i know how it feels...thank you alll for the great information