ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

The trend is smoothing the angle to the NW instead of due north over the Florida Peninsula...18z now get back over the Gulf on a NW heading shortly after...that could have big implications given this is still a ways off

[JPmia]

See the west shift now

18z



12z



06z

With respect Ivan I don't understand these comparisons.. they are all on Sunday 8/28 yes, but they are all at different forecast points in time and run. Can elaborate on this west shift.. Though I imagine the ensembles might make your point better in a few.

[Ivanhater]

They are all the exact time frame!

[gatorcane]

The trend is smoothing the angle to the NW instead of due north over the Florida Peninsula...18z now get back over the Gulf on a NW heading shortly after...that could have big implications given this is still a ways off

Yeah I see what you mean. No doubt there is good reason to believe it could track over Central/Western Cuba south of Florida and west of Key West....about 50-100 miles west of peninsula FL NW towards the panhandle. Certainly a solution that is possible. Will need to watch for that trend with the models. Once a center forms and data is put into the models, could change things.......

[rockyman]

The change in the storm's direction (from 12z to 18z GFS) occurs BEFORE 30N...it occurs closer to 27 or 28N. Imagine if the Florida peninsula were NOT there...the westward shift would be more obvious.

[TBCaneFreak]

It is a significant change in the as far as where the remnance go...My opinion the building ridge may do little but to guarantee this storm goes N to Panhandle...It will be on the western edge of the ridge with a flow south to north, and maybe we endup with it south to nnw

[psyclone]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

[TBCaneFreak]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

AGREED, I guess thru 5 days the track has stayed nearly the same...FOR 8 DAYS NOW

[Ivanhater]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

That's not really my point...each run of the GFS continues to smooth out the angle more NW instead of north and NE it was showing previously. The trough is flatter and ridge is stronger each run. Now the 18z gets in the gulf after hitting south Florida and comes into the panhandle into Alabama. If this continues the and shifts even slightly more NW the angle of approach after coming across Cuba and close to South Florida has bigger implication in the Gulf and thus further left.

[gatorcane]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

That's not really my point...each run of the GFS continues to smooth out the angle more NW instead of north and NE it was showing previously. The trough is flatter and ridge is stronger each run. Now the 18z gets in the gulf after hitting south Florida and comes into the panhandle into Alabama. If this continues the and shifts even slightly more NW the angle of approach after coming across Cuba and close to South Florida has bigger implication in the Gulf and thus further left.

Agreed Ivan. Definitely watching that trend closely with the models. Won't take much to bring it over a lot of water and towards the panhandle with the angle of approach towards Florida.......one would think it could be a major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico heading NW or NNW if it managed to avoid alot of land and head more west.

[Ivanhater]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

That's not really my point...each run of the GFS continues to smooth out the angle more NW instead of north and NE it was showing previously. The trough is flatter and ridge is stronger each run. Now the 18z gets in the gulf after hitting south Florida and comes into the panhandle into Alabama. If this continues the and shifts even slightly more NW the angle of approach after coming across Cuba and close to South Florida has bigger implication in the Gulf and thus further left.

Agreed Ivan. Definitely watching that trend closely with the models. Won't take much to bring it over a lot of water and towards the panhandle with the angle of approach towards Florida.......

Exactly...my post is not saying anything about the hit on south Florida...its after that I am talking about...the trend is angling further left after South Florida instead of right up the state and out to sea

[Tampa_God]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

AGREED, I guess thru 5 days the track has stayed nearly the same...FOR 8 DAYS NOW

Well, the models have fluctuated a little in the past few days. Some models were more convinced of Irene going north of the Island, than some went further south, and then a little more north through Hispaniola and Cuba. I'll expect the same to happen until Tuesday, we'll probably be more certain what the ridge will do and what effect Hispaniola and Cuba will have, if at all.

[indian]

so is irene going to head towards florida for sure or could it possibly turn west toward louisiana?

[TBCaneFreak]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

That's not really my point...each run of the GFS continues to smooth out the angle more NW instead of north and NE it was showing previously. The trough is flatter and ridge is stronger each run. Now the 18z gets in the gulf after hitting south Florida and comes into the panhandle into Alabama. If this continues the and shifts even slightly more NW the angle of approach after coming across Cuba and close to South Florida has bigger implication in the Gulf and thus further left.

And if it isnt a "Trend" it still looks to me to be a panhandle threat to me...I thought all along this would either cut thru Florida (ala Erin) or ride thru E Gulf and strike there...Odds on Favorite that is what will happen...Probably has little chance of makingit past Biloxi...IMO

[TBCaneFreak]

so is irene going to head towards florida for sure or could it possibly turn west toward louisiana?

You know what they say about the term "FOR SURE" Still laot could happenI remember Elena headed for Tampa and it decided it like Ivans area better...I bet you remember that eh Ivan

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I hear you Michael as I have been agreeing and saying the same for a few days. And will say it again. Give the operational models time to catch up to what they have been hinting at, and that is stronger ridging and weaker trough/less weakness. Also they will catch up to what the ensembles have been showing and that is also stronger ridging with the system IN THE CENTRAL GULF.

[KWT]

The 00z will be itneresting, I wonder whether they are going to shift at all now we actually have got a TS and not just an open wave.

[psyclone]

those of us in peninsular florida aren't particularly concerned with where the landfallen, dead remains of the the storm wind up in the mid latitudes. we're watching where the storm is between 25 and 29 latitude. there's not been a great deal of longitudnal variation in storm at those latitudes.

That's not really my point...each run of the GFS continues to smooth out the angle more NW instead of north and NE it was showing previously. The trough is flatter and ridge is stronger each run. Now the 18z gets in the gulf after hitting south Florida and comes into the panhandle into Alabama. If this continues the and shifts even slightly more NW the angle of approach after coming across Cuba and close to South Florida has bigger implication in the Gulf and thus further left.

well work some met magic and make it smooth faster!:) each run continues to badger my neighborhood.

[Dean4Storms]

I still think this is more a threat to Key West than Miami and eventually the Panhandle.

I agree with Ivan, the trend has been west with the majority of models and the GFS does have this moving back over the Gulf before landfall near Appalachicola. I think this goes a bit further west than this when all is said and done, just west of Key West and toward the Panhandle.

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *       IRENE  AL092011  08/20/11  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    50    56    63    71    81    91   102   106   109   108   107   108
V (KT) LAND       45    50    56    63    71    81    91    97    94    77    52    47    48
V (KT) LGE mod    45    51    57    63    70    83    93    85    97    82    54    51    59
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     3     3     5     7     6     9    12     7    15     8    15     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -3    -1    -3    -2     0     0    -4     1    -2     0    -1     1
SHEAR DIR         70   136   283   334   330   259     3   271   310   285   256   263   237
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.7  28.9  29.3  29.5  29.8  30.0  30.2
POT. INT. (KT)   152   151   151   151   151   150   148   151   157   160   165   169   170
ADJ. POT. INT.   158   154   153   153   152   148   143   145   149   149   150   153   154
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    12    12    12    12    12    11    11    10    10    10     9
700-500 MB RH     58    55    56    58    59    56    60    58    61    63    68    67    70
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    10    10    13    16    16    17    20    19    20    20    22    25
850 MB ENV VOR    79    72    64    67    67    54    62    59    61    64    82    85   110
200 MB DIV        93    65    61    69   109    52    46    55    51    48    59    64    97
700-850 TADV       0     2     2     2     0     6     0     5     3     0     6     6    20
LAND (KM)        589   511   491   479   314   133   133     5    63   -24   -22    10    83
LAT (DEG N)     14.6  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    19    16    16    16    16    14    12    12    11    10     8     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      79    69    71    81    87    66    86    97   102    97    56     0    95

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19      CX,CY: -18/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  531  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  59.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   7.  11.  14.  16.  18.  20.  21.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   8.  10.  11.  12.  12.  12.  11.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   2.   3.   4.   7.   6.   7.   6.   7.  10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   3.   2.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  11.  18.  26.  36.  46.  57.  61.  64.  63.  62.  63.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011      IRENE 08/20/11  18 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.5 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.5 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  79.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 109.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  77.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    49% is   3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29% is   3.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    23% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011      IRENE 08/20/11  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011      IRENE 08/20/2011  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       4(  4)       8( 12)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       1(  1)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)