ATL: IRENE - Models

[rockyman]

Based on 18z GFS, definitely more ridging in the northern Gulf. If this system can somehow manage to come in west of the Florida Peninsula, it would have a lot of time over water, as it curves back to the NW

[ConvergenceZone]

I disagree with both of you. This is not good news for florida at all. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing a very powerful major hurricane for florida due to rapid intensification after cuba. Not sure how that is good news. Katrina made landfall as a strengthening cat 1 in florida and ask how many people there thought it was a walk in the park. With rapid intensification and the potential to ride the spine of florida, this is a catastrophic GFS run for florida.

You don't pay attention to the strength of what the models forecast. Mets have said that time and time again on this board. The models don't know how to handle land interaction, the islands are invisible to them, thus they are at the high end of the intensity levels......So don't pay attention to the GFS and ECMWF forecasting a powerful hurricane BASED upon the CURRENT TRACK over mountainous land. We were looking at the GFS track over land with not much time over water after it emerged, thus the "good news" comments.

[KWT]

maxintensity, depends on the exact track before Cuba really.

I think if the GFS comes off you may just get a hurricane out of it given its just offshore for a while before landfall on Cuba...a major would be something below 1% chance on that 18z run.

[maxintensity]

I disagree with both of you. This is not good news for florida at all. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing a very powerful major hurricane for florida due to rapid intensification after cuba. Not sure how that is good news. Katrina made landfall as a strengthening cat 1 in florida and ask how many people there thought it was a walk in the park. With rapid intensification and the potential to ride the spine of florida, this is a catastrophic GFS run for florida.

You don't pay attention to the strength of what the models forecast. Mets have said that time and time again on this board. The models don't know how to handle land interaction, the islands are invisible to them, thus they are at the high end of the intensity levels......So don't pay attention to the GFS and ECMWF forecasting a powerful hurricane BASED upon the CURRENT TRACK over mountainous land. We were looking at the GFS track over land with not much time over water after it emerged, thus the "good news" comments.

All I know is if you have ECMWF and GFS showing that kind of intensification you can expect something a lot bigger than a cat 1. Probably a lot bigger problem than you bargained for.

[Ivanhater]

Well there you go...even more ridging this run pushing this NW into the Panhandle and into Alabama! Second trough continues to be faster and flatter...trend has been west

[Ivanhater]

This continues well into the interior U.S with no trough picking this up!.....would not be surprised with more west shifts

[ConvergenceZone]

I also want to caviet what I said earlier by saying that IF somehow the system undergoes rapid intensification in the Carib and slams into Cuba as a medium to strong hurricane, then it could still hit Florida as a hurricane, even with only a few hours overwater, but nobody knows if it will be up to hurricane strength by the time it reaches Cuba or not. If it hits Cuba as a tropical storm, it may not have enough time once it emerges to get up to hurricane strength again, but this is purely speculation based upon what it does in the Carib.

[BigB0882]

Timing is key. Is it possible that this could get pushed before making landfall and therefore go further into the Gulf and into land somewhere from LA to FL Panhandle?

[SFLcane]

This continues well into the interior U.S with no trough picking this up!.....would not be surprised with more west shifts

What west shifts? The system continues to impact sfl just as the 12z run did. This run was just about identical to the previous.

[KWT]

It made a slight west bend past S.florida and got back into the Gulf...just...
Very similar to the ECM which also bends NNW/NW at that time,

This is one of those very tricky forecasts the NHC must hate, because while the track and the spread isn't all that great, there are HUFE differences strength wise to be had from even 100 miles of error.

[Ivanhater]

This continues well into the interior U.S with no trough picking this up!.....would not be surprised with more west shifts

What west shifts? The system continues to impact sfl just as the 12z run did. This run was just about identical to the previous.

Look at the run...it moves into the Florida Panhandle and well into the interior U.S. Yes SOflo is impacted but after that it continues to shift west..

[TBCaneFreak]

It made a slight west bend past S.florida and got back into the Gulf...just...
Very similar to the ECM which also bends NNW/NW at that time,

This is one of those very tricky forecasts the NHC must hate, because while the track and the spread isn't all that great, there are HUFE differences strength wise to be had from even 100 miles of error.

I would not characterize that a trend...Its really the same solution with a wobble and a jog here and there. Go back to the list of GFS runs that were being tallied and take note of the hits...How many were West Coast riders ending up in middle panhandle...And this run follows the GA/AL line after landfall...thats an Aplalachacola or St Marks landfall

[Ivanhater]

See the west shift now

18z



12z



06z

[Ivanhater]

Huge shift west every run today as there is much more ridginh and faster shallower trough as my post above clearly shows!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And to add to that even if it is going to be declared Irene at 8 do not expect a lot of eastward shifting as just because it is a named storm now does not mean it will be once it starts interacting with the mountainous landmasses. If anything it should still shift west allowing for the stronger ridging and weaker trough passing by well north of it.

[Aric Dunn]

Huge shift west every run today as there is much more ridginh and faster shallower trough as my post above clearly shows!

dont blow the shift out of proportion.. the shift at after florida landfall is very slight.. 20 to 30 miles.. by the time it gets over GA its about 200 miles.. so up to 5 days its barely a mentionable shift.

[TBCaneFreak]

See the west shift now

18z



12z



06z

Yes...So you speaking of once it gets intrained in the westerlies. So really makes no difference upcoming to the overall solution of a FL Peninsula strike continuing, with a west bend, say past 28-30N

[KWT]

Yeah tobe fair I wouldn't call it a huge shift, its still broadly the same pattern just a slightly stronger upper high that allows it to bend back NNW rather then due north.

[gatorcane]

Ivan I don't see a big shift either. But what I think Ivan is getting at is that the NW turn towards the end is becoming more pronounced....once past South Florida.

So there may be a trend? I dunno, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are quite scary for us in Southern Florida. I hope they are wrong!

[psyclone]

it's yet another run north in that 80 to 85 longitude range. there's been some sloshing back and forth but an objective look at the long term average shows pretty remarkable consistency. still plenty of time for it to change though. as always...hurry up and wait.