ATL: IRENE - Models

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MWatkins
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Re: Re:

#1621 Postby MWatkins » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:36 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Scorpion wrote:This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much.


You must be kidding....no chance to go further west than the Peninsula? HPC and NHC places this WEST of the Peninsula... :wink:


With a center down at 14.5 the odds this gets west of the 12Z guidance is higher than east IMHO.

However, a big system coming in just west of FL could be worse than a direct hit on the east coast, even for SE Florida given an east track would encounter involve higher terrain along the way.

A west trend isn't good for anyone outside of the Caribbean, but could be great news for Haiti

MW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1622 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:36 pm

i think the vorticity to the south is shifting North toward the blob of the convection. circa 15 n 57.5 ...this thing is ready to go to town IMO
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Re: Re:

#1623 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ronjon wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Things will change now likely east more come 00z in that it will Irene sooner way sooner than all the models developed it and also way stronger !! and farther north initialized position..


Perhaps Aric, but it doesn't look all that organized to me and its very broad - these large systems tend to take some time organizing. Most of the globals on't really strengthen her till south of PR.


yeah typically... but she is already 50mph... none of the models had her at that till near hispaniola.


Is there a closed llc though? I thought it was still an open, though slowly closing, wave without a defined llc?
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Re: Re:

#1624 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:39 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
Scorpion wrote:This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much.


You must be kidding....no chance to go further west than the Peninsula? HPC and NHC places this WEST of the Peninsula... :wink:


With a center down at 14.5 the odds this gets west of the 12Z guidance is higher than east IMHO.

However, a big system coming in just west of FL could be worse than a direct hit on the east coast, even for SE Florida given an east track would encounter involve higher terrain along the way.

A west trend isn't good for anyone outside of the Caribbean, but could be great news for Haiti

MW


Good to hear from you Mike. I agree...A track into the eastern Gulf allows for rapid deepening and puts SOFLO on the dirty side. Thanks for the input
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#1625 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:40 pm

I'd not put too much faith into it going east of Florida...

Once it gets to 75W..there is very little chance of a recurve based on what the globals currently do, it'll probably take a due north motion exactly like the ECM/GFS.

ECM looks pretty good to me...

And actually a further north/east track is WORSE...less land interaction allows for a stronger hurricane and with very little chance of it recurving, thats bad news...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1626 Postby TexWx » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:42 pm

Come on Irene...
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#1627 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:45 pm

Anyhow until there is an actual defined llc, I'm not buying any of the long range models. :spam: Once this thing becomes an actual TC, then we are in business.
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#1628 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:48 pm

18Z GFS, 18 hours:

Image
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#1629 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:53 pm

A tiny bit stronger and a TINY bit further north but more or less the same as the last run at the moment...to be expected of course!
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#1630 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:55 pm

18Z GFS 36 hours, a little further north (may mean more time over Hispaniola):

Image
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#1631 Postby 3090 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:55 pm

Large storms will tend to alter the upper air dynamics as they intensify. It will also be less affected by land masses, IF, it has a very large core, and becomes an Annular type of storm. The small land masses it would cross, before impacting a U.S. landfall, are very small across, UNLESS, the core would follow along the main axis of the land mass (IE: Cuba), which is very remote.

Bottom line is. It has a very large envelope in its current state and has the POTENTIAL, to be a massive storm. Stay tuned.
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Re:

#1632 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS 36 hours, a little further north (may mean more time over Hispaniola):

Image


To close for comfort to my people in PR...
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#1633 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:58 pm

Yep abit further north on this run, heading towards Hispaniola and a date with destiny by 36hrs time...

will it track up Cuba or will it emerge on either side...lets hope in truth it goes up the spine then due north at the same latitude as Florida to really hurt the systems chances of really ramping up.

Probably heavy rains for PR.
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1634 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:58 pm

Looks like it is going to make landfall in the Dominican Republic....this could change what happens in this run. The 12Z run it was south.
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Re: Re:

#1635 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:00 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
Scorpion wrote:This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much.


You must be kidding....no chance to go further west than the Peninsula? HPC and NHC places this WEST of the Peninsula... :wink:


With a center down at 14.5 the odds this gets west of the 12Z guidance is higher than east IMHO.

However, a big system coming in just west of FL could be worse than a direct hit on the east coast, even for SE Florida given an east track would encounter involve higher terrain along the way.

A west trend isn't good for anyone outside of the Caribbean, but could be great news for Haiti

MW


Mike, great to see you posting. With 88 degree SST's we really do not want this storm anywhere near the West Coast of Florida and your obs is spot on.
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#1636 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:00 pm

Skimming the coast at 48 hours:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1637 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:00 pm

*Just* south of DR by 48hrs,but my word is that a close call and to be fair it'd be doing damage to the system at that point anyway.
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Re:

#1638 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:02 pm

KWT wrote:*Just* south of DR by 48hrs,but my word is that a close call and to be fair it'd be doing damage to the system at that point anyway.


Looks like it strengthened from 1005MB to 1002MB along the southern coast of Hispaniola, it may even be inland now I can't tell.

Strengthening over Hispaniola? :eek:
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#1639 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:03 pm

Its probably 40-50 miles offshore from the looks of things Gatorcane, close enough for those mountions to cause disruption I'd have thought.
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#1640 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:07 pm

18Z 60 hours, 1001MB:

Image
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