ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Look how far inland the Euro pushes it...to ATLANTA!

That is how much this ridge builds in....speed and land interaction is going to be huge with this one

[AtlanticWind]

Models keep shifting East, maybe it will stay offshore of s.fla.

[psyclone]

while there is some windshield wipering back and forth it seems like a recurve in the 80 to 85 degree longitude range has been a common winner. this will be far more interesting when we have a legit cyclone to track but it is still quite an excercise to contemplate the possibilities.

[WeatherEmperor]

So far the 12Z GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and the FIM are in close agreement to bring this very close to southern Florida in about 6 days.

you can throw out 2 of those....

interesting GFDL run....huh IVAN....

I think I know which 2 you are talking about. Why say that if they generally agree with the GFS and Euro?

[TBCaneFreak]

Models keep shifting East, maybe it will stay offshore of s.fla.

Anyone???Ivan?? Am I safe to assume that the Ensembles remain to the West of Florida, right?
So this would still put center point of target area ( I know were still days out) but to the Florida peninsula to say, Biloxi????

[Ivanhater]

Into Tennessee!

[ROCK]

So far the 12Z GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and the FIM are in close agreement to bring this very close to southern Florida in about 6 days.

you can throw out 2 of those....

interesting GFDL run....huh IVAN....

I think I know which 2 you are talking about. Why say that if they generally agree with the GFS and Euro?

just some needling. ..I look at the NOGAPS all the time....not up on my FIM homework yet....

[WeatherEmperor]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Into Tennessee!

That is long range Michael. While I do agree with you that there may be more ridging then currently shown, that ridging may be too far north for it to have an impact on it when it is in the area of Cuba/south florida. Maybe when the system gets further north than that will it feel the affects of the more ridging.

But I do agree with you that the 12Z models are a bit too far east.

[TBCaneFreak]

Into Tennessee!

If there is such a strong ridge, I tend to believe it doesnt turn so dramatically North that soon...If you look at past storms (ala..Francis and Jeanne) for example there was a much broader sweeping right turn...I would expect the same here....No strong fall trof like in Charley's case

[ROCK]

Into Tennessee!

That Ivan and when does it pop a LLC and where. looking at currently its got some sorting out to do...

look my ridge is gone in 10 Days!!!

[KWT]

Models keep shifting East, maybe it will stay offshore of s.fla.

not much chance, its NOT going to recurve, it'll probably just keep heading NNW/N so once it passes 75W its pretty much a certainty it'll be a US problem looking at the way the models handle the upper trough and ridging afterwards.

ECM is a worry overall in all departments....GFS a rain worry for Caribbean.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well it looks now the models have a least got the flatter trough hence stronger ridge part right. Didnt think it would dig as much as they were first showing. In the upcoming runs they(operational) should start to move more west in-line with what the ensembles are showing. This could very well get trapped as it moves into the gulf and pushed more west.

[Ivanhater]

12z UKMET out...heading WNW toward the channel as ridging builds in

[TBCaneFreak]

You guys all reallize this is either the beginning of BELIEVING in model continuity and consistancy for seasons to come if this actually hits in the SE US....or the demise of us ever believing a model again, if it never pans out.....JUST A THOUGHT TO PONDER

[Aric Dunn]

Euro... looks like David track
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Rgv20]

Its amazing that the GFDL does nothing with 97L..

[Hurricaneman]

I think the GFDL is on drugs, this is going to develop, on the other hand the other hand the HWRF is also on drugs, intensifies this too fast

[tailgater]

Will we make it to 100 pages before it develops, in the MODEL thread. Guess work in my opinion till we get a closed low. It is certainly keeping everyone guessing with the way most models are wanting to bomb this thing.

[KWT]

Euro... looks like David track
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Yeah pretty close...

UKMO tends to be too far south with its tracks, more often then not its on the southern side of the model guidence.

[jabman98]

BTW Rock doesn't look like the Sewer death ridge budges much.

but my ridge does weaken and I hope I can get a dark cloud out of it....

Is the Ridge of Death really supposed to weaken? I want to believe. I really do. I can't remember what rain looks like.