ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Adoquín]

so far they do not seem to be going there but east southeast of there...

[cycloneye]

That have to go down to around 14N to try to find the west wind.

[Dave]

686
URNT15 KNHC 201843
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 12 20110820
183330 1502N 05803W 9594 00426 0076 +225 +091 075023 024 031 000 00
183400 1501N 05801W 9595 00425 0076 +226 +091 071023 025 031 000 00
183430 1501N 05759W 9594 00427 0076 +225 +091 069025 026 030 000 03
183500 1500N 05758W 9596 00426 0076 +226 +092 066025 026 031 000 00
183530 1500N 05756W 9590 00430 0077 +223 +092 064025 027 031 001 03
183600 1459N 05754W 9594 00428 0076 +224 +092 064026 027 031 001 00
183630 1459N 05752W 9593 00427 0076 +225 +092 063027 028 032 000 00
183700 1458N 05751W 9595 00426 0076 +223 +092 060027 028 032 001 00
183730 1458N 05749W 9587 00434 0077 +213 +092 067025 027 034 003 00
183800 1458N 05747W 9595 00424 0075 +219 +090 064024 024 035 002 03
183830 1457N 05745W 9593 00426 0075 +220 +089 074023 025 033 001 00
183900 1457N 05744W 9596 00423 0075 +217 +089 095022 022 032 000 03
183930 1456N 05742W 9593 00426 0075 +217 +090 094021 021 031 000 00
184000 1456N 05740W 9593 00425 0074 +215 +090 092021 022 030 000 00
184030 1455N 05739W 9594 00424 0074 +215 +091 093023 023 031 000 00
184100 1455N 05737W 9596 00422 0074 +214 +089 096023 023 030 001 00
184130 1454N 05735W 9592 00426 0074 +214 +090 095022 023 030 001 00
184200 1454N 05733W 9596 00422 0074 +215 +090 093024 025 029 000 00
184230 1454N 05732W 9593 00425 0073 +216 +090 093024 024 029 001 00
184300 1453N 05730W 9597 00420 0072 +217 +090 091022 023 030 001 00
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Not even close to getting a LLC as was the case yesterday

[KWT]

Yep nothing at all at the surface, anything weak must be south of 14N but I highly doubt there is anythign at all...

To be fair most of the models don't really get this going till 24hrs time, so plenty of time for a change in presentation.

[Macrocane]

RECON is finding reliabale winds above 30 kt, if they find a closed circulation it will be upgraded directly to tropical storm I guess.

[msbee]

For info in Guadeloupe, everyone can understand that numerous events have been cancelled today and tommorow due to the bad weather conditions expected tonight and especially tommorow.
Gustywind

no new from here, Gusty, except the weather is starting to change already.
skies are grey and there are light rain showers coming in

[Dave]

[wxman57]

Surface obs seem to indicate that if there is an LLC that it is south of 14N, maybe near 13N and 56W. But it looks like an open wave.

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

For info in Guadeloupe, everyone can understand that numerous events have been cancelled today and tommorow due to the bad weather conditions expected tonight and especially tommorow.
Gustywind

no new from here, Gusty, except the weather is starting to change already.
skies are grey and there are light rain showers coming in

Ok thanks Barbara. Numerous rain episods and isolated and briefs ligthnings in my area.

[plasticup]

We shouldn't be surprised by that - conditions don't start getting good for a little while still. It will likely be 24 hours before we see a circulation starting to wrap up

[ROCK]

Surface obs seem to indicate that if there is an LLC that it is south of 14N, maybe near 13N and 56W. But it looks like an open wave.

as been the story this year...broad low, competing centers. One north and one south....

[Dave]

225
URNT15 KNHC 201853
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 13 20110820
184330 1453N 05728W 9593 00424 0073 +215 +091 087021 022 028 002 00
184400 1452N 05726W 9595 00421 0072 +216 +091 090019 020 029 001 00
184430 1452N 05725W 9593 00424 0073 +216 +091 085019 020 027 002 00
184500 1451N 05723W 9592 00425 0073 +215 +092 085019 020 026 001 00
184530 1451N 05721W 9594 00423 0073 +217 +092 090018 019 025 000 00
184600 1450N 05719W 9596 00422 0073 +217 +091 088018 019 024 002 00
184630 1450N 05718W 9593 00424 0072 +218 +092 097019 019 025 001 00
184700 1450N 05716W 9595 00422 0072 +221 +092 107018 019 027 000 00
184730 1449N 05714W 9596 00422 0072 +223 +093 109019 020 026 001 00
184800 1449N 05712W 9593 00424 0072 +221 +093 106018 018 025 001 00
184830 1448N 05711W 9597 00421 0072 +222 +093 103019 020 025 001 00
184900 1448N 05709W 9596 00421 0071 +225 +093 109018 019 026 000 00
184930 1447N 05707W 9590 00427 0072 +225 +093 109019 020 026 001 00
185000 1447N 05705W 9597 00420 0072 +225 +093 112019 019 025 002 00
185030 1446N 05704W 9593 00425 0072 +231 +092 129015 016 026 001 00
185100 1446N 05702W 9600 00419 0072 +232 +092 138018 019 023 000 03
185130 1445N 05700W 9590 00427 0071 +233 +093 138019 020 022 000 00
185200 1445N 05659W 9595 00423 0072 +227 +093 129019 020 021 001 03
185230 1444N 05657W 9589 00427 0072 +227 +093 137019 021 024 001 00
185300 1444N 05657W 9589 00427 0070 +234 +093 142023 023 026 001 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Surface obs seem to indicate that if there is an LLC that it is south of 14N, maybe near 13N and 56W. But it looks like an open wave.

That'd be quite funny after everyone has been looking north, I did say if there is any circulation it'd be much further south of where people were looking last night...we all got duped by that MLC last night!

I suspect there isn't even that much down there...probably requires to be taken down to 80% IMO...

[Ivanhater]

Surface obs seem to indicate that if there is an LLC that it is south of 14N, maybe near 13N and 56W. But it looks like an open wave.

That'd be quite funny after everyone has been looking north, I did say if there is any circulation it'd be much further south of where people were looking last night...we all got duped by that MLC last night!

I didn't

[NDG]

Not even close to getting a LLC as was the case yesterday

Yesterday had a LLC? It has been broad all along.

[KWT]

Nothing really found down there at all, still looks a fair way off yet...

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot. Definitely nothing at 15N or farther north. May not be much down south, either:

[Ivanhater]

Not even close to getting a LLC as was the case yesterday

Yesterday had a LLC? It has been broad all along.

No, I meant it didn't have one yesterday or today