ATL: IRENE - Models

[AdamFirst]

EURO has a friend in the 12z HWRF

[Vortex]

H+144 completely rakes S/central FL....



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

[lonelymike]

Euro runs up the east coast of Florida this run

cheater...

I suspect he has access to some hi-tech US gov sites

BTW Rock doesn't look like the Sewer death ridge budges much.

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM 156 hr:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.c ... =-1&wjet=1

Extreme east GOM. Less than 100 miles due west of Naples, FL. Movement is slowly due north.

[KWT]

Decent hurricane on this run running up Florida, it starts a little further south but ends up further east, which allows for a far stronger hurricane then on the 00z run.

[ROCK]

Euro runs up the east coast of Florida this run

cheater...

I suspect he has access to some hi-tech US gov sites

BTW Rock doesn't look like the Sewer death ridge budges much.

he does..

but my ridge does weaken and I hope I can get a dark cloud out of it....

[Vortex]

THe consensus between the GFS/ECM is quite alarming for folks in FL...

[WeatherEmperor]

So far the 12Z GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and the FIM are in close agreement to bring this very close to southern Florida in about 6 days.

[ROCK]

So far the 12Z GFS, Euro, NOGAPS and the FIM are in close agreement to bring this very close to southern Florida in about 6 days.

you can throw out 2 of those....

interesting GFDL run....huh IVAN....

[indian]

it seems funny to me some people put a lot of stock in these models 5-7 days out.....the error in miles these things are this many days out means that it is possible florida wont even see a rain drop from this system

[Vortex]

H168 after racking FL east coast plows into SC....




http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[KWT]

Yeah the models are very close, but the difference of 100-150 miles east or west makes a huge difference between probably a land ravaged large coreless 50-60kts TS and a 2-3 hurricane.

ECM jumps onto the latter idea on this run, yet ironically is further south on the early part of the run!

[AtlanticWind]

it seems funny to me some people put a lot of stock in these models 5-7 days out.....the error in miles these things are this many days out means that it is possible florida wont even see a rain drop from this system

This is not 5-7 days for S Fla it is 4 to 5 days

[ROCK]

thats like 4 runs in a row now....keeps it weak...wonder what its seeing that the others are not... probably just a bad vacuum tube....

[maxintensity]

969mb on a global would be a solid cat 4 or maybe more.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF EPS Control Run had 97l track 50 to 100 miles west of Florida eventually making landfall in the Big Bend Area.

Its hard to go against the operational ECMWF but I think it may be too far east especially the new 12z run. I know its still way to early for this but my best guess would be a track thru the extreme eastern GOM and eventually making landfall around the Florida panhandle.

[brunota2003]

Hugo, is that you?

[ROCK]

969mb on a global would be a solid cat 4 or maybe more.

depends on land crossings and if the core can take it......whenever it gets a core....

[Ivanhater]

Idea of a stronger ridge is there....drives this inland into Georgia as the ridge pushes on it...we will see how it evolves when this interacts with Cuba

[NDG]

If 12z euro is right, Miami could be feeling the effect of 97L as early as Thursday, passing just to the east of Miami Thursday night as a strengthening Cat 2 hurricane.
We are talking about just 5 days.
No need to panic at this time, there is still plenty of things that can change in the next couple of days.