ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Adoquín
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#761 Postby Adoquín » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:15 pm

what does that suggest to you Aric?
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#762 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:15 pm

119
URNT15 KNHC 201813
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 09 20110820
180330 1530N 05948W 9595 00442 0093 +229 +082 096022 022 /// /// 03
180400 1529N 05946W 9594 00443 0092 +230 +082 098023 023 /// /// 03
180430 1529N 05944W 9593 00441 0092 +229 +083 097024 025 /// /// 03
180500 1529N 05943W 9596 00440 0091 +230 +084 098025 025 /// /// 03
180530 1528N 05941W 9593 00442 0091 +229 +085 095025 025 /// /// 03
180600 1528N 05939W 9598 00433 0089 +230 +086 093025 026 /// /// 03
180630 1527N 05937W 9596 00435 0089 +229 +086 091025 025 /// /// 03
180700 1527N 05936W 9593 00441 0091 +226 +087 092023 024 /// /// 03
180730 1526N 05934W 9594 00440 0090 +228 +088 090023 023 /// /// 03
180800 1526N 05932W 9592 00443 0091 +225 +088 088019 020 /// /// 03
180830 1526N 05930W 9593 00443 0093 +226 +088 089020 021 /// /// 03
180900 1525N 05929W 9593 00442 0093 +226 +089 088019 020 /// /// 03
180930 1525N 05927W 9594 00441 0093 +225 +089 086019 019 /// /// 03
181000 1524N 05925W 9592 00444 0092 +227 +089 086018 019 /// /// 03
181030 1524N 05923W 9593 00442 0092 +226 +091 087017 018 /// /// 03
181100 1523N 05922W 9595 00441 0091 +225 +091 087016 017 /// /// 03
181130 1523N 05920W 9591 00445 0092 +225 +091 090016 018 /// /// 03
181200 1522N 05918W 9591 00443 0091 +225 +092 088016 016 /// /// 03
181230 1522N 05916W 9594 00441 0092 +226 +090 084019 021 /// /// 03
181300 1521N 05914W 9593 00441 0090 +227 +090 086019 020 /// /// 03
$$
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Re:

#763 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:15 pm

Adoquín wrote:what does that suggest to you Aric?

no well defined llc yet
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#764 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:16 pm

Looking better organized over the last 1-3 hours...I suspect she closes off a center this evening/overnight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#765 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:16 pm

its basicly a vigorous wave
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#766 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:18 pm

Moderate SAL to the north and west of 97L.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... itEW5.html
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#767 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:19 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#768 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:
KWT wrote:MLC starting to look a bit more impressive again looking at the loops, can't rule it out trying to develop something.

Hispaniola should be ready for big rains as the system dumps loads of rain over the higher ground as the system likely weakens overland...same probably true for Cuba as well...

Right now its rain rather then wind I'm concerned about for the islands...and if it takes the 12z GFS track the rain is the big issue for Florida as well.

johngaltfla, very true...but if the GFS is right the system has just over half of that time....as i said my gut would be 50-60kts from that sort of track.

If it gets a good 30hrs over water then sure, then its a hurricane threat...as long as it isn't torn apart by 48hrs overland!


Dont forget Puerto Rico that when big rain events occur,massive floodings,mudslides occur.Emily passed a little over 100 miles to the south but dumped a little over 10 inches.


yes, the heavy rain is a problem for the islands. PR especially is prone to flooding and mudslides. We here on St. Maarten can see our roads flooded out with just a small amount of rain.
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#769 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:25 pm

270
URNT15 KNHC 201823
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 10 20110820
181330 1521N 05913W 9596 00439 0091 +225 +089 085019 020 /// /// 03
181400 1521N 05911W 9593 00440 0089 +228 +091 090020 021 /// /// 03
181430 1520N 05909W 9594 00434 0086 +225 +092 089019 020 /// /// 03
181500 1520N 05907W 9595 00439 0089 +226 +092 087019 020 /// /// 03
181530 1519N 05906W 9594 00439 0089 +228 +092 085018 019 /// /// 03
181600 1519N 05904W 9595 00433 0085 +228 +092 086019 019 /// /// 03
181630 1518N 05902W 9597 00431 0085 +228 +094 093018 019 /// /// 03
181700 1518N 05900W 9594 00434 0085 +228 +094 093019 019 /// /// 03
181730 1517N 05859W 9596 00432 0083 +229 +095 092020 021 /// /// 03
181800 1517N 05857W 9593 00435 0083 +229 +095 094019 020 /// /// 03
181830 1516N 05855W 9596 00432 0083 +229 +096 095019 021 /// /// 03
181900 1516N 05854W 9597 00430 0082 +230 +097 094022 022 /// /// 03
181930 1515N 05852W 9592 00434 0083 +229 +096 094021 021 /// /// 03
182000 1515N 05850W 9596 00432 0082 +229 +097 092020 021 /// /// 03
182030 1514N 05848W 9593 00433 0081 +230 +096 089021 021 /// /// 03
182100 1514N 05847W 9594 00431 0082 +229 +097 085019 020 /// /// 03
182130 1513N 05845W 9595 00431 0081 +229 +097 081018 019 /// /// 03
182200 1513N 05843W 9593 00433 0082 +229 +096 080017 018 /// /// 03
182230 1512N 05841W 9594 00433 0082 +230 +097 079020 020 023 001 03
182300 1512N 05840W 9595 00432 0082 +230 +097 081019 019 024 000 00
$$
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Re: Re:

#770 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:29 pm

msbee wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
KWT wrote:MLC starting to look a bit more impressive again looking at the loops, can't rule it out trying to develop something.

Hispaniola should be ready for big rains as the system dumps loads of rain over the higher ground as the system likely weakens overland...same probably true for Cuba as well...

Right now its rain rather then wind I'm concerned about for the islands...and if it takes the 12z GFS track the rain is the big issue for Florida as well.

johngaltfla, very true...but if the GFS is right the system has just over half of that time....as i said my gut would be 50-60kts from that sort of track.

If it gets a good 30hrs over water then sure, then its a hurricane threat...as long as it isn't torn apart by 48hrs overland!


Dont forget Puerto Rico that when big rain events occur,massive floodings,mudslides occur.Emily passed a little over 100 miles to the south but dumped a little over 10 inches.


yes, the heavy rain is a problem for the islands. PR especially is prone to flooding and mudslides. We here on St. Maarten can see our roads flooded out with just a small amount of rain.

You're 100% right and as a conclusion a "simple" active twave could pose a serious rain threat for much of the islands especially with all these impressive amount of water :eek: collected this year. Rain is often a threat and that's why we should not let our guard down islanders, be prepared!
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#771 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:30 pm

Image
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#772 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:32 pm

12z Euro really bombs 97L on this run, switches to the eastern coast of FL on this run.
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#773 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:33 pm

For info in Guadeloupe, everyone can understand that numerous events have been cancelled today and tommorow due to the bad weather conditions expected tonight and especially tommorow.
Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#774 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:35 pm

18z Best Track

Aric,you see something at those coordinates?

AL, 97, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 565W, 30, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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#775 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:35 pm

980
URNT15 KNHC 201833
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 11 20110820
182330 1511N 05838W 9595 00431 0083 +228 +096 080018 019 023 002 00
182400 1511N 05836W 9595 00431 0082 +229 +097 074019 020 023 003 03
182430 1510N 05834W 9596 00430 0080 +230 +098 076021 022 /// /// 03
182500 1510N 05832W 9590 00433 0080 +228 +097 074019 020 /// /// 03
182530 1510N 05831W 9594 00431 0081 +229 +097 071019 020 029 001 03
182600 1509N 05829W 9595 00431 0081 +230 +098 071019 020 028 000 00
182630 1509N 05827W 9594 00431 0080 +232 +097 075023 024 029 001 00
182700 1508N 05825W 9595 00429 0078 +231 +096 073022 023 030 000 00
182730 1508N 05824W 9594 00430 0079 +227 +096 071020 021 028 001 00
182800 1507N 05822W 9590 00433 0079 +227 +096 074018 019 027 001 00
182830 1507N 05820W 9595 00429 0079 +229 +097 075019 020 027 001 00
182900 1506N 05818W 9588 00439 0080 +225 +095 075017 018 027 002 00
182930 1506N 05817W 9596 00428 0078 +227 +095 076018 019 028 000 00
183000 1505N 05815W 9596 00428 0077 +230 +095 076021 022 028 001 00
183030 1505N 05813W 9591 00430 0077 +228 +094 074021 023 028 001 00
183100 1504N 05811W 9590 00432 0077 +228 +095 076022 024 031 000 00
183130 1504N 05810W 9597 00424 0076 +230 +094 084027 027 031 000 00
183200 1503N 05808W 9594 00427 0076 +228 +092 080024 026 029 000 00
183230 1503N 05806W 9594 00427 0076 +229 +093 081026 027 031 001 00
183300 1502N 05805W 9596 00426 0075 +228 +092 077024 026 032 000 00
$$
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#776 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:37 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED
FROM 19N53W TO 14N55W TO 9N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1007 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 53W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W
OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
58W-62W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM TODAY
.
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#777 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:37 pm

Looking at recon seems pretty likely that there is nothing at the surface at the moment, which makes any estimated center at the moment a little pointless...

14.5N is probably just a good middle point of where it could be.
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#778 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:38 pm

20/1745 UTC 13.5N 56.4W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic
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#779 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:40 pm

Recon proves me right, nothing but easterly winds SW of of the MLC.
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#780 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:41 pm

Any center would be south of where recon is right now, and if there is one, probably very broad.
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