ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

90 %


A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

[Dave]

544
URNT15 KNHC 201753
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 07 20110820
174330 1601N 06106W 3762 08037 0423 -177 //// 053021 021 /// /// 05
174400 1601N 06104W 3758 08048 0422 -181 //// 047023 024 /// /// 05
174430 1600N 06101W 3835 07897 0413 -176 //// 049020 022 /// /// 05
174500 1559N 06058W 4048 07495 0390 -151 //// 041016 017 /// /// 05
174530 1558N 06056W 4324 06986 0357 -122 //// 041017 019 /// /// 05
174600 1557N 06053W 4531 06631 0338 -104 //// 045018 019 /// /// 05
174630 1555N 06050W 4689 06367 0325 -090 //// 050020 022 /// /// 05
174700 1554N 06048W 4870 06083 0311 -076 //// 052022 023 /// /// 05
174730 1553N 06046W 5071 05763 0294 -061 -069 058024 025 /// /// 03
174800 1552N 06044W 5265 05467 0276 -042 -069 057024 025 /// /// 03
174830 1551N 06042W 5470 05164 0256 -025 -070 054026 027 /// /// 03
174900 1550N 06039W 5685 04854 0103 -009 -059 061025 025 /// /// 03
174930 1549N 06037W 5911 04523 0102 +006 -053 063027 028 /// /// 03
175000 1548N 06035W 6140 04239 0118 +026 -047 065027 028 /// /// 03
175030 1547N 06033W 6318 04005 0112 +044 -043 069024 025 /// /// 03
175100 1546N 06031W 6496 03780 0107 +059 -037 068023 023 /// /// 03
175130 1545N 06030W 6667 03560 0114 +067 -029 076022 022 /// /// 03
175200 1544N 06028W 6853 03336 0120 +075 -022 082022 022 /// /// 03
175230 1543N 06026W 7040 03109 0122 +084 -014 080023 025 /// /// 03
175300 1542N 06024W 7264 02838 0119 +100 -006 076027 028 /// /// 03
$$
;

[canes04]

take a look at the area near 14.5 & 55.5

[cycloneye]

90 %


A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

This sentence is very important.

AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

[clfenwi]

It's showtime! Plane is descending to operational altitude.

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

So is this one

HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.

[johngaltfla]

I don't want to contradict any of our pro mets or those with far more experience in meteorology than I shall ever have, but please, be careful saying "it can't" or "it won't" when saying any storm can not become a hurricane before it reaches Florida, etc.

Katrina took just under 30 hours to go from a 40knot TS to a Cat 1 before it tore across South Florida. The rest is, as they say, history.

Thus why some of us down here are a bit jumpy. Thanks and keep up the great work gang.

[KWT]

MLC starting to look a bit more impressive again looking at the loops, can't rule it out trying to develop something.

Hispaniola should be ready for big rains as the system dumps loads of rain over the higher ground as the system likely weakens overland...same probably true for Cuba as well...

Right now its rain rather then wind I'm concerned about for the islands...and if it takes the 12z GFS track the rain is the big issue for Florida as well.

johngaltfla, very true...but if the GFS is right the system has just over half of that time....as i said my gut would be 50-60kts from that sort of track.

If it gets a good 30hrs over water then sure, then its a hurricane threat...as long as it isn't torn apart by 48hrs overland!

[northtxboy]

I feel like its christmas morning

[AdamFirst]

Katrina also maintained hurricane strength over Florida...granted it went over a swamp but still.

[johngaltfla]

MLC starting to look a bit more impressive again looking at the loops, can't rule it out trying to develop something.

Hispaniola should be ready for big rains as the system dumps loads of rain over the higher ground as the system likely weakens overland...same probably true for Cuba as well...

Right now its rain rather then wind I'm concerned about for the islands...and if it takes the 12z GFS track the rain is the big issue for Florida as well.

Lake Okeechobee needs it badly...just without the winds over 74 mph.

[Gustywind]

METEO

Level orange for noon

franceantilles.fr19.08.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 135501.php

This very disturbed time accompanied by rain and thunderstorms will affect our islands throughout the weekend (including Monday).

The tropical wave active No. 28 approach the small Antilles, its centre at 11: 00 am was located at 13 ° 7 North and 58 ° West. is 500 km east of Martinique. This very disturbed time accompanied by rain and thunderstorms will affect our islands throughout the weekend (including Monday). First grain are already starting to affect us. The rains will intensify this afternoon, in the second part of night and especially all day Sunday. They will be locally very high relative lull will be observed in the evening. The winds will strengthen with winds gusting to 60/70 km/h, they will exceed 80 km/h all day Sunday. The Sea State degrades also significantly this afternoon and particularly the following night by becoming strong, chopped and unwieldy. This wave to a strong development potential: tropical depression to the approach of our islands then tropical storm once arrived in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation will be consistent by location with values greater than 100 mm in plain and 150 to 200 mm in the mountains. Risk therefore of high floods and landslide. Attention to the electrical activity in the lightning. Don't forget to read the individual measures above - below.


INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOUR


Be very careful: orange rain Vigilance high
-Find out before to undertake a shift and be very careful
-Avoid the mountain walks and hikes in relief
-If you live in the flood zone, highlight security your likely to be damaged goods and watch the rising waters
-If your home can be threatened by a landslide, leaving it or prepare you to it quickly.
When storm: avoid the use of telephones and electrical appliances. Do you take cover in a wooded area, nearby towers or poles, or under a single tree.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

This system is pretty large , that could help it survive land interaction a bit better.

[Dave]

295
URNT15 KNHC 201803
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 08 20110820
175330 1542N 06022W 7492 02581 0122 +110 -000 088024 025 /// /// 03
175400 1541N 06020W 7690 02361 0118 +127 +005 086024 024 /// /// 03
175430 1540N 06019W 7878 02167 0122 +140 +012 074025 025 /// /// 03
175500 1539N 06017W 8062 01964 0119 +153 +019 076027 028 /// /// 03
175530 1538N 06015W 8296 01720 0110 +176 +027 078030 031 /// /// 03
175600 1537N 06013W 8557 01452 0106 +192 +037 085029 029 /// /// 03
175630 1536N 06012W 8828 01180 0115 +199 +046 087028 029 /// /// 03
175700 1536N 06010W 9100 00922 0122 +195 +054 092023 025 /// /// 03
175730 1535N 06008W 9379 00657 0113 +210 +061 092021 021 /// /// 03
175800 1535N 06007W 9580 00458 0098 +224 +067 090021 021 /// /// 03
175830 1534N 06005W 9596 00442 0096 +226 +072 088021 021 /// /// 03
175900 1534N 06003W 9591 00447 0097 +225 +072 088020 021 /// /// 03
175930 1533N 06002W 9594 00445 0098 +223 +074 093021 022 /// /// 03
180000 1533N 06000W 9596 00444 0097 +222 +075 094021 021 /// /// 03
180030 1533N 05958W 9592 00445 0097 +223 +076 095022 022 /// /// 03
180100 1532N 05956W 9593 00444 0095 +223 +078 097024 025 /// /// 03
180130 1532N 05955W 9593 00443 0094 +224 +079 098023 024 /// /// 03
180200 1531N 05953W 9593 00444 0095 +226 +079 098022 023 /// /// 03
180230 1531N 05951W 9593 00444 0095 +226 +080 095021 023 /// /// 03
180300 1530N 05949W 9593 00444 0094 +225 +080 092022 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[lonelymike]

MLC starting to look a bit more impressive again looking at the loops, can't rule it out trying to develop something.

Hispaniola should be ready for big rains as the system dumps loads of rain over the higher ground as the system likely weakens overland...same probably true for Cuba as well...

Right now its rain rather then wind I'm concerned about for the islands...and if it takes the 12z GFS track the rain is the big issue for Florida as well.

johngaltfla, very true...but if the GFS is right the system has just over half of that time....as i said my gut would be 50-60kts from that sort of track.

If it gets a good 30hrs over water then sure, then its a hurricane threat...as long as it isn't torn apart by 48hrs overland!

Would be a great drought buster for Fla and the SE. Lord knows we need the rain.

[cycloneye]

MLC starting to look a bit more impressive again looking at the loops, can't rule it out trying to develop something.

Hispaniola should be ready for big rains as the system dumps loads of rain over the higher ground as the system likely weakens overland...same probably true for Cuba as well...

Right now its rain rather then wind I'm concerned about for the islands...and if it takes the 12z GFS track the rain is the big issue for Florida as well.

johngaltfla, very true...but if the GFS is right the system has just over half of that time....as i said my gut would be 50-60kts from that sort of track.

If it gets a good 30hrs over water then sure, then its a hurricane threat...as long as it isn't torn apart by 48hrs overland!

Dont forget Puerto Rico that when big rain events occur,massive floodings,mudslides occur.Emily passed a little over 100 miles to the south but dumped a little over 10 inches.

[KWT]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.

This system is pretty large , that could help it survive land interaction a bit better.

Yeah, mind you the large size is probably more a sign of poor organisation!

Well if thats the case lets hope the system gets into a moderate TS and no stronger and crawl up the state.

Cycloneye, yeah, but then again a big tropical wave can do that as well, so don't need a TC to roll through to cause those sorts of problems...

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

east winds where ne should be according to recon