ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Canadian was too far west earlier but the Canadian, Canadian Ensembles..GFS Ensembles and Euro Ensembles all point to the central Gulf coast while the GFS and Euro operational are east..we will get a better picture over the next couple of days

[WeatherEmperor]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z UKMET a bit slower in this run with 97L and also shows a deeper trough over Eastern North America. It is even showing some kind of weak low developing off the carolinas developing along the trough axis, that would induce more of a weakness:


Gator,

Do you have a link to the entire run so we can see the movement from beginning to end?

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET a bit slower in this run with 97L and also shows a deeper trough over Eastern North America. It is even showing some kind of weak low developing off the carolinas developing along the trough axis, that would induce more of a weakness:


Gator,

Do you have a link to the entire run so we can see the movement from beginning to end?

Here you go:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet.html

The UKMET also has a near identical track to the GFS and ECMWF now through 120 hours, but keeps the system weaker.

The UKMET is a conservative model by nature, so does not surprise me.

Extending out the UKMET beyond 5 days would probably show a more NW movement into the EGOM, only because it keeps the system weak.

A deeper system would hit the weakness.

[Ivanhater]

Trough is a lot faster then even the 00z run Gator leaving it behind. A trend I have seen on all the 12z model guidance so far

[Adoquín]

i amnot following the models anymore until an llc is fixed, if any exists. It is incredible how much has been written and modelled based on assumed fixes. Enough for now.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM model running.....

[rockyman]

12z HWRF finished...stronger and farther west this run:

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM, 66 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

really hwrf.. 939 ....

[WeatherEmperor]

really hwrf.. 939 ....

I know. There is no way it can get as strong as the model advertises with the land interaction. Why does it always do this?

[gatorcane]

FIM model is keeping it quite weak so far this run. Maybe the GFDL is on to something, but more north than the GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF

[AdamFirst]

12z HWRF finished...stronger and farther west this run:

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/12zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2126.gif

Oh HWRF, never change.

[gatorcane]

84 hours..better image, just misses Hispaniola to the south......

[ronjon]

From Jeff Masters blog today, HWRF was the second worst model the last two years (NOGAPS winning bottom prize). The Euro won the gold medal.

[SouthFloridawx]

Very similar to a storm we had earlier this year.

[WeatherEmperor]

From Jeff Masters blog today, HWRF was the second worst model the last two years (NOGAPS winning bottom prize). The Euro won the gold medal.

No surprise there. A couple of years ago I read that the HWRF was eventually going to replace the GFDL to be the NHC's hurricane computer model. If the HWRF continues to perform like this, I hope it never replaces the GFDL....

[gatorcane]

FIM model link. Can't post the rest but here you go if somebody wants to take over:

I am using the 10m wind field link

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi? ... 2011+-+12Z

[KWT]

The GFS 12z takes the longest possi8ble track over land, doubt it even reaches hurricane status ever with that sort of track, would be very similar to Fay.

Upper conditions do look good, so some brief strengthening over the EVerglades isn't impossible if upper conditions become exceptional.

[Riptide]

12z HWRF finished...stronger and farther west this run:

1935 Labor Day Hurricane redux.

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM model link. Can't post the rest but here you go if somebody wants to take over:

I am using the 10m wind field link

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi? ... 2011+-+12Z

Okay. I will take over