ATL: IRENE - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z NOGAPS hits the the Keys/extreme south florida and runs it up the entire west coast of FL:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 12&set=All

This is very similar to the 12Z GFS that just came out.....

[caneseddy]

Ridge over Texas doesn't want to budge. Looking like extreme eastern Gulf and/or south FL peninsula. But with as much land as it will be crossing, it probably won't be an intense hurricane at landfall. I'm not very confident it will make hurricane strength before crossing Cuba. Doesn't look like a TD now. Too disorganized.

Both dynamic models show it bombing as it moves north towards the eastern gom and Florida. Referring to the GFS and ECMWF

But I agree, are they overdoing it?

Let's hope so

I think the further east (South Florida) vs. the Eastern Gulf; the more significant the overstatement of strength is in the models.
Wxman pointed out that the strength if the storm comes to South Florida will be less.
The past several years, to the best of my recollection; the effect of the warmth of the Florida Straits and Gulf Stream around SE Fl has been much less than predicted.
Typically, it is predicted that a storm will bomb in that 100 miles or so and that has not occured most recently.
I know someone will point out an outlier but I clearly remember Emily and Ernesto (progged in discussion to be as strong as Cat 3) as prime examples.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Regarding Ernesto, I think it was mid level shear that came down upon it north of Cuba which really weakened it...I believe Derek mentioned that in the thread

[gatorcane]

None of the global models bombed Emily or Ernesto like they are doing with 97L.

Reason is that the environment was not ideal for them.

In this case, the dynamical models are forecasting near ideal conditions and if it moves slowly over the warm Florida Straits, it could really strengthen in my opinion.

Still the GFS is not forecasting a CAT 4 or CAT 5 into South Florida, looks like more along the lines of a Wilma-like system on intensity (CAT 1 or CAT 2).

The more worrisome track is a track over the EGOM into the FL panhandle or big bend area.

[ronjon]

12Z NOGAPS hits the the Keys/extreme south florida and runs it up the entire west coast of FL:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 12&set=All

Yeah for being such a poor model it's almost the same exact track as the 12z GFS.

[Ivanhater]

And would you look at that

12z GFS Ensembles are MUCH further west back to the central Gulf coast

[otowntiger]

Ridge over Texas doesn't want to budge. Looking like extreme eastern Gulf and/or south FL peninsula. But with as much land as it will be crossing, it probably won't be an intense hurricane at landfall. I'm not very confident it will make hurricane strength before crossing Cuba. Doesn't look like a TD now. Too disorganized.

I agree. I wonder if/when models will EVER get a grip on intensity forecasts. Its the NHC's Achilles's heal. Getting the track down is very important and they seem to have that figured out, but not nearly as important if no one has a clue as to what the intensity will be once it begins to affect land. Forecasting intensity is like playing darts blindfolded with no arms it seems.

[dixiebreeze]

This run is very close to getting trapped by the building ridge..and shows it moving very slowly over the eastern Gulf...could stall and get trapped. Well see!

I get what you mean Ivanhater, trapped by a building ridge similar to what happened to Elena in '85 for example.

The model runs are reminding me of Elena for sure. I was directly in that one in Cedar Key and the Tampa Bay evacuations were surreal. Though she never came ashore on the Fla. west coast, she hovered just off it for days.

[fci]

Ridge over Texas doesn't want to budge. Looking like extreme eastern Gulf and/or south FL peninsula. But with as much land as it will be crossing, it probably won't be an intense hurricane at landfall. I'm not very confident it will make hurricane strength before crossing Cuba. Doesn't look like a TD now. Too disorganized.

I think the further east (South Florida) vs. the Eastern Gulf; the more significant the overstatement of strength is in the models.
Wxman pointed out that the strength if the storm comes to South Florida will be less.
The past several years, to the best of my recollection; the effect of the warmth of the Florida Straits and Gulf Stream around SE Fl has been much less than predicted.
Typically, it is predicted that a storm will bomb in that 100 miles or so and that has not occured most recently.
I know someone will point out an outlier but I clearly remember Emily and Ernesto (progged in discussion to be as strong as Cat 3) as prime examples.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Regarding Ernesto, I think it was mid level shear that came down upon it north of Cuba which really weakened it...I believe Derek mentioned that in the thread[/quote]

Understandable.
My point was that there always seems to be something that keeps them from bombing in that short run between Cuba/Hispanola and Southeast Florida.
Emily was modeled to be up to a Cat 1 and I remember Stewart in a Discussion worrying that Ernesto could bomb up to Cat 3.
Logically, one would think that the warm waters after Cuba/Hispanola would ratchet up the strength of a system headed for South Florida but it seems to me that (luckily) that does not end up happening.
Of course, the disruption from Cuba/Hispanola could have something to do with it.

[gatorcane]

12Z NOGAPS hits the the Keys/extreme south florida and runs it up the entire west coast of FL:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 12&set=All

Yeah for being such a poor model it's almost the same exact track as the 12z GFS.

The NOGAPS has been targeting South Florida for days now also...

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian...heading NW in the Gulf with ridge building

[HURRICANELONNY]

I like Jeff Masters explaination of the models. Ecmf being the best and nogaps being the worst. As we all know there isn't a name yet. So take the models for what they are. A dart board.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET at 120 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

The panhandle and Central/NE Gulf Coast better hope that this thing heads up the spine of Florida. It might be better for us to take one for the team down here than to have this thing move up the Eastern Gulf over water. By the time it would hit the Gulf coast it could be real big.

SFT

[gatorcane]

GFS strengthens the storm as it moves over the Everglades...996MB in Florida Keys and 992MB in Big Cypress Swamp just east of Naples. Wow

Near the FL Keys:


Big Cypress Swamp in the Everglades:

[red herring]

And would you look at that

12z GFS Ensembles are MUCH further west back to the central Gulf coast

Reminds me of boot camp

[WeatherEmperor]

Also remember, even if this system goes slightly west meaning near the west coast of FL as opposed to actually moving over the Peninsula, the worst of the weather (rain/wind) should be on the east side of the storm. So even if this thing moves parallel to the west coast of FL, we will still feel the impacts well inland.

[Kory]

Don't pay any attention to the strength the models are showing. Intensity is so hard to predict, but first we gotta figure out where this is going.

[jhpigott]

12z Canadian...heading NW in the Gulf with ridge building

That's significantly east of earlier CMC runs which had 97 going thru the Yucatan Channel

[rockyman]

12z HWRF is about 1 degree west of the 6z HWRF:

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET a bit slower in this run with 97L and also shows a deeper trough over Eastern North America. It is even showing some kind of weak low developing off the carolinas developing along the trough axis, that would induce more of a weakness: