ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#641 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:18 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Saying the GFDL is a good intensity model is like saying that I have attractive bowel movements. Seriously, it underforecast Harvey by about 30 knots in the less than 24 hour range. And it tends to overdevelop storms with only slightly less frequency than the HWRF. It does have some track skill.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


TMI, dwsqos2! TMI! :lol:

However, your post does make me want to clarify that I was referring to the GFDL's track skills and not intensity skills. Good point. But this is a discussion better had on the model thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#642 Postby sfwx » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:19 am

Sooner or later Irene from 1999 will come up ( if it hasn't already! ) Different set up, and time of the year, BUT, it may affect the same areas.....

http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

( click on the screen to put it in motion )

Eric
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#643 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:20 am

lol... it has that look of a developing tropical cyclone, though it doesnt have a surface circulation... either way the structure looks impressive. And to me, it doesnt matter whether it stays weak for about another day or not, its not moving due west, it is still moving wnw and it may end up just north of DR, even PR. Just my personal opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#644 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:31 am

People thought this was developing yesterday evening as well and turned out it was a well defined MLC...it is interesting the usual aggressive Canadian does not spin this up until the western Caribbean....Well see.
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#645 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:32 am

Does the size of the storm effect how well a system will do over land? I'm just curious. This seems to have the potential of being a rather large system. Would a large system hold together better over the islands or a small system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon

#646 Postby jhpigott » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:The plane departs at 12:15 PM EDT from St Croix.


everything still a "go" for this recon mission this afternoon?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon

#647 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:35 am

jhpigott wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The plane departs at 12:15 PM EDT from St Croix.


everything still a "go" for this recon mission this afternoon?


Nothing official, but I'm 95% certain they'll go.
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#648 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:37 am

To those that think this looks weaker this morning, I'm not sure I agree. I know I went to bed last night at 11:30 PST and 97L didn't have NEAR this amount of convection, not even close! and convection is what we were saying that 97L needed to start developing. So I don't get it.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#649 Postby Frank2 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:43 am

To those that think this looks weaker this morning, I'm not sure I agree. I know I went to bed last night at 11:30 PST and 97L didn't have NEAR this amount of convection, not even close! and convection is what we were saying that 97L needed to start developing. So I don't get it.....


I agree it has more convection, but it's still just a wave rushing westward with perhaps a hint of turning, but little or no outflow associated with it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#650 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:46 am

Just can't see any west wind after looking at the satellite loop...of course my old eyes might be just not seeing it...very sharp wave axis though and it could close off soon....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#651 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:46 am

Frank2 wrote:
To those that think this looks weaker this morning, I'm not sure I agree. I know I went to bed last night at 11:30 PST and 97L didn't have NEAR this amount of convection, not even close! and convection is what we were saying that 97L needed to start developing. So I don't get it.....


I agree it has more convection, but it's still just a wave rushing westward with perhaps a hint of turning, but little or no outflow associated with it...




Well that potentially means a much stronger system down the road then, because being weak will keeping moving more west end to keep it south of the islands, and then once it gets into more favorable conditions in the Western Carib, LOOK OUT!
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#652 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:49 am

I've seen this movie before...Emily, Harvey.

It has to slow down before anything can really get going.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#653 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:50 am

do you guys think they will find a closed low when they fly in
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#654 Postby robbielyn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:50 am

aric is spot on with where the llc is developing and the storm is looking more and more organized by the minute wont be too much longer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#655 Postby canes04 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:50 am

Frank2, are you serious? Recon should find a TD/Irene this afternoon.
Eric clearly showed where the LLC is forming.

If this hits SFL next week I guess it's better from the south than east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#656 Postby painkillerr » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:51 am

Anyone know at what time is the aircraft scheduled to recon the system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#657 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:52 am

painkillerr wrote:Anyone know at what time is the aircraft scheduled to recon the system?

12:15pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#658 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:53 am

painkillerr wrote:Anyone know at what time is the aircraft scheduled to recon the system?


Scheduled for the 18z fix. Should arrive in about 2 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#659 Postby painkillerr » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:54 am

RL3AO wrote:
painkillerr wrote:Anyone know at what time is the aircraft scheduled to recon the system?


Scheduled for the 18z fix. Should arrive in about 2 hours.



Thank you guys!
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Re:

#660 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:54 am

AdamFirst wrote:I've seen this movie before...Emily, Harvey.

It has to slow down before anything can really get going.



We will know in a couple of hours from now when Recon gets in there to see if they can find a LLC.
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