ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Euro Ensemble mean is insistent on bringing this in the central gulf

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z model plot I made. If it takes that route, then it would be hard to be a strong hurricane when it hit south Florida. Could be a hurricane, though.

[TBCaneFreak]

Euro Ensemble mean is insistent on bringing this in the central gulf

The GFS Ensembles depict the Penninsula of Florida and, or just offshore the East coast of Florida right? So we continue with the same thought. SC/GA border to roughly Biloxi....as models go

[gatorcane]

00z FIM model similar to GFS and ECMWF but a but more west up the west coast of Florida.

Intensity is on the strong side into Florida.

[Blown Away]

Here's a 12Z model plot I made. If it takes that route, then it would be hard to be a strong hurricane when it hit south Florida. Could be a hurricane, though.

Why does the HPC put this in the East Central Gulf when models show over Florida?

[Raininfyr]

Euro Ensemble mean is insistent on bringing this in the central gulf

Is that more of a Mobile-Pensacola hit?

This is not a forecast, or anything close!

[Ivanhater]

Do you still think west of the Florida Peninsula Wxman? Canadian UKMET and Euro ensembles still favor a central gulf threat

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Here's a 12Z model plot I made. If it takes that route, then it would be hard to be a strong hurricane when it hit south Florida. Could be a hurricane, though.

Hurricane's Charlie & Elena are outside and look upset. They said they would like to have a word with you

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Actually I take that back. That path is pretty unique.

[maxintensity]

Why does the HPC put this in the East Central Gulf when models show over Florida?

They don't always give rubber stamp approval of whatever the model shows. And CMC and the ensembles have a more west solution just as the operational GFS and ECMWF did yesterday. They're also using their professional judgement and expertise given the info available. Afterall, we still don't even have a llc.

[TBCaneFreak]

Here's a 12Z model plot I made. If it takes that route, then it would be hard to be a strong hurricane when it hit south Florida. Could be a hurricane, though.

They are a tad west of the 0600Z...
I feel were just going to watch them slide side to side in the same general location...Perhaps its honing in on a target area in an unprecidented fasion right before our eyes

[gatorcane]

DGEX model actually strengthens the system while over South Florida.

Systems can strengthen over Cuba by the way (Georges is an example) and this may be a time we see that, especially since the models are insisting that will happen.

I do wonder if people around South Florida will take this seriously especially since the last couple of times a system tries to get us from the South, it ended up busting because land interaction greatly weakened the system...

The attitude that "oh Cuba will destroy the system, we will be okay" could be very much a wrong attitude to have.

But this time, the models are so bullish as the system approaches Florida we may not be so lucky.

Oh and I do think the Eastern Gulf and Fl panhandle are very much at play here....and nobody who lives on the Gulf or SE US coastline should think they are safe.

[plasticup]

Why does the HPC put this in the East Central Gulf when models show over Florida?

Because for a few runs models like CMC showed it shooting the Yucatán Channel as a sub-980mbar monster.

[Kory]

The HWRF model takes it to the east of Florida with a re curve...interesting that the models may be showing less of a pattern change as they did before.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Gator...the angle of the turn is what is interesting..just a small difference in the angle shifts landfall a few hundred miles east or west.

[Ivanhater]

Why does the HPC put this in the East Central Gulf when models show over Florida?

Because for a few runs models like CMC showed it shooting the Yucatán Channel as a sub-980mbar monster.

Yes...UKMET, Canadian, Canadian ensembles, Euro Ensembles all favor a central gulf threat. Even the GFS Ensembles are further west than the operational. This will all become clearer over the weekend.

[CourierPR]

DGEX model actually strengthens the system while over South Florida.

Systems can strengthen over Cuba by the way (Georges is an example) and this may be a time we see that, especially since the models are insisting that will happen.

I do wonder if people around South Florida will take this seriously especially since the last couple of times a system tries to get us from the South, it ended up busting because land interaction greatly weakened the system...

The attitude that oh Cuba will destroy the system, we will be okay could be very much a wrong attitude to have.

But this time, the models are so bullish as the system approaches Florida we may not be so lucky.

Oh and I do think the Eastern Gulf and Fl panhandle are very much at play here....and nobody who lives on the Gulf or SE US coastline should think they are safe.

WPLG in Miami has been low key but they had Max Mayfield on showing the models and he reminded us that we need to watch this one.

[Ivanhater]

The HWRF model takes it to the east of Florida with a re curve...interesting that the models may be showing less of a pattern change as they did before.

HWRF has been too far right all season. Actually,all models have been too far right so far this season.

[TBCaneFreak]

The HWRF model takes it to the east of Florida with a re curve...interesting that the models may be showing less of a pattern change as they did before.

Do you have the 12Z output? Because what I see on the 06z is a TC passing over eastern Cuba and turning NW into a weakness...This is along the lines of other model suites. No indication of a total NW to N to NE recurve per the 06Z run..maybe it just my interportaion

[indian]

s there any possibility that this can make it all the way to louisiana or texas....i dont know how to read all this ridging stuff?