KWT wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:
Yea, most of the models seems to be turning away from development anytime soon... This doesn't suppose to happen. Starting in Mid August is when the lid suppose to blow off, but aside from a couple of depressions/storms, we've yet to see that happen.
Well really you could argue we are still active right now, we've just had 2NS in the space of about 3-4 days, thats pretty rapid ratwe of development...quality has been low with nearly all these storms but we are on *7* storms, we've had more storms then a fair amount of El nino seasons in the past!
There is something up with thisn season thats for sure and conditions are only marginal further south in the MDR for development, further north it seems much more condusive...classic El nino type pattern.
Somewhat odd year, but who knows Gert may become a hurricane anyway yet!
I have been seeing you post for a while comparing this season to an El Nino type season, but IMO, this is not an El Nino type pattern and a good place to look at is in the Caribbean, which overall shear has been below average, indicative of a continuing La Nina pattern.
Also look how above average conditions have been for tropical development, but I got a feeling that this is not taking dry conditions into consideration.
What is wrong with this season is too much dry air & subsidence across the MDR, probably a lot to do with the heat across the mid latitudes into the continental US, as indicated below instability is running well below average across the MDR, Caribbean and GOM.
Interesting that where we have seen the most action so far has been in an area of the western Atlantic off of the eastern US which has not had the best UL conditions as indicated by the graphics, but whenever a trough approaches it has created a little bit of UL divergence, pushing the subsidence out of the way.
Another thing to look at is at average MSLP across the MDR, which shows that it has been well below average, not typical for an El Nino pattern.
Must admit was somewhat concerned of a bad season due to all the early sesason hype. Now we are in the the middle of August and still nothing but a few weak storms in the middle of the atlantic. The models have been doing horrible for the most part, we have our neighbor the heat-death ridge that has moved in down the street from me in the deep south, east coast trough, and dry/stable air everywhere. In the not to distant future the first fall cold fronts will start making their presence felt. Sure we could get 8-9 more weak storms that go out to sea to make numbers look good, but starting to get the feeling that as far as landfalls go, especially majors, things might not be as bad afterall from earlier predictions. Doesn't help that models really aren't showing anything coming down the pike in the next 7-10 days either. But even if they did more than likely wouldn't amount to much, look at 93L. Should be a strong cane now from what long range were shwoing last week. 
