ATL: IRENE - Models

[lonelymike]

Ronjon Ukmet and Nogaps are exactly the best tropical models to rely on.

Actually the L-Bar and the X-Trap are my favorites

[ronjon]

Seems the Bams and TVCN are seeing the initial movement correctly, many of the other models see a WSW dip at the beginning which doesn't look like that will happen. The Bams and TVCN have been creeping a little N and it would not take much to skirt or miss Hispaniola.

Yeah, 97L has been ever so slightly gaining a bit of latitude since yesterday as the system has begun organizing much earlier than the models and all of us had anticipated. I think the probabilities are increasing that 97L just may actually skirt or just miss Hispaniola to the north. Time will tell.

Both ECM and GFS keep 97L weak and well south of PR - too early to say where the center will form since we don't have one yet - I do believe there is a recon flight scheduled for today.

[Caribwxgirl]

Good morning all. First time poster, viewer for years...Had to get involved here, hard to turn a blind eye to some 16 out of last 20 model funs of a hurricane to Florida..

Welcome. I'm new here too. This is a nail biter for you isn't it. Hope its not as bad as the models have been predicting.

[ronjon]

:uarrow:
Ronjon Ukmet and Nogaps are exactly the best tropical models to rely on.

Actually the L-Bar and the X-Trap are my favorites

Yeah Mike just reporting the global model suite. I wouldn't put much stock in those per se, but in total it may hint that the track could be pushed west with time. ECM ensemble run suggests that too.

[Scorpion]

Latest HWRF, for what its worth

[TBCaneFreak]

What heading was it on?

[rockyman]

Here's the 6z HWRF loop:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[ronjon]

HPC thoughts this morning.

AND ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/GULF OF MEXICO
DUE TO INCREASINGLY DIFFERENT TRACK FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TO ADDRESS THESE
INCREASINGLY LARGE DIFFERENCES...WILL LIKELY TRANSITION QUICKLY TO
EITHER THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND/OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE
PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR DAYS 3-7. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PRIOR FORECASTS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF CLOSEST
TO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
MEANWHILE..THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER WITH
THE UKMET/CANADIAN TO THE LEFT BRINGING THE WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BY NEXT FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL USE THE LATEST
COORDINATION POINTS AGREED UPON FROM THE NHC AND EXTRAPOLATE ONE
DAY FORWARD FOR THE NEW DAY 7 POINT...WHICH WILL PLACE IT IN THE
EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WHICH IS JUST LEFT OF THE 00Z ECMWF
POSITION.

[northjaxpro]

Seems the Bams and TVCN are seeing the initial movement correctly, many of the other models see a WSW dip at the beginning which doesn't look like that will happen. The Bams and TVCN have been creeping a little N and it would not take much to skirt or miss Hispaniola.

Yeah, 97L has been ever so slightly gaining a bit of latitude since yesterday as the system has begun organizing much earlier than the models and all of us had anticipated. I think the probabilities are increasing that 97L just may actually skirt or just miss Hispaniola to the north. Time will tell.

Both ECM and GFS keep 97L weak and well south of PR - too early to say where the center will form since we don't have one yet - I do believe there is a recon flight scheduled for today.

Yes, Air Force Recon will be in there to investigate later today. I am inclined to think if Recon finds that a stronger, more organized system is occuring at this time it will allow the system to gain a bit in latitude. I think if this system is indeed organizing now, the earlier southern paths the models had been showing may have to be adjusted.

BTW, that latest HWRF run may not be too far off base. Just my thought.

[rockyman]

Day 6 HPC (prelim issued this morning):


Day 7 HPC (prelim issued this morning):

[northjaxpro]

HWRF run going with the solution for now of skirting or just missing Hispaniola to the north and emerging just north off the coast of Eastern Cuba in 120 hrs.

Edit: The actual run shows it coming into Hispaniola from the south, but I still think it is possible it may skirt by mainly from the north of the island.

[CourierPR]

I think the HPC prelim run is too far SW. This system is already moving more WNW.

[CourierPR]

HWRF run going with the solution for now of skirting or just missing Hispaniola to the north and emerging just north off the coast of Eastern Cuba in 120 hrs.

This solution may be more plausible given the more WNW track.

[northjaxpro]

HWRF run going with the solution for now of skirting or just missing Hispaniola to the north and emerging just north off the coast of Eastern Cuba in 120 hrs.

This solution may be more plausible given the more WNW track.

I agree. I would not diss the HWRF run in that it is definitely plausible for that solution to pan out down the road.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Here's the 6z HWRF loop:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

What the hell did they use a colecovision? Is the Budget that bad this year?

[TBCaneFreak]

I would just like to add. Its not really one model against the others. The mean soulution is what we should be paying attention too this early stage of the game. A strong, or strengthing TC approching the state of florida from the SE, S, or SSW looks very likely at this point, per 3 days of model runs...It could change, but it could just continue to nail 'er down...

[TBCaneFreak]

Here's the 6z HWRF loop:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

What the hell did they use a colecovision? Is the Budget that bad this year?

I was thinking ATARI, but same ...

[northjaxpro]

I would just like to add. Its not really one model against the others. The mean soulution is what we should be paying attention too this early stage of the game. A strong, or strengthing TC approching the state of florida from the SE, S, or SSW looks very likely at this point, per 3 days of model runs...It could change, but it could just continue to nail 'er down...

You're right. Hopefully in the next few days we will be somewhat able to pinpoint better with a composite of all the model runs just where this entity will go.

[sunnyday]

Any idea (guess) when it might become a named storm? I understand that the conditions are not just right for formation right now, but every day when I check the board and see little progress with this invest, I have more doubt that it will form.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I would Expect Irene in the next 8 hours imo.