ATL: IRENE - Models

[BigB0882]

The location makes the forecast very tricky. If the actual track ends up just 100 miles West it goes from a SFL hit to the panhandle because of the way the state is shaped.

[CourierPR]

I took Wilma lightly in 2005 because it was forecast to be in a sheared and weakened condition. When your area is threatened, prepare for the worst.

[Scorpion]

The location makes the forecast very tricky. If the actual track ends up just 100 miles West it goes from a SFL hit to the panhandle because of the way the state is shaped.

Definitely. Can't imagine the logistics nightmare it would entail. Imagine a hurricane coming north from Cuba forecasted by models to bomb in the Straits. It could strafe either coast with extreme winds, or go right up the center of the state. Emergency planning nightmare.

[TBCaneFreak]

I tend to focus on the last 4 runs of a model and use that to determine a cone of uncertainty for that particular model , then blend them with all the other models to make a general cone for a trend of a projected outcome...Models are not intended to say what house is getting destroyed from run to run. I don't panic when its aimed at my area, and by the same token, i dont deem it a trend when a model swings one direction for one run

[SouthFLTropics]

I took Wilma lightly in 2005 because it was forecast to be in a sheared and weakened condition. When your area is threatened, prepare for the worst.

Agreed...Hope for the best but prepare for the worst and always anticipate a category higher than what is being forecasted. What's the harm in erring on the side of caution. When Wilma was coming many of my neighbors snickered at me for putting up my shutters. After the storm they realized why I did. Being a 5th Generation Floridian I have many years of hurricane experience under my belt to know when to go on alert. If I was to classify my status right now I would say that I'm on "yellow" alert. If the models continue to trend like this through Monday AM...I'll be on "Red Alert". Until then I already have all of my supplies. Will check over them in the morning to ensure I'm not missing something and then it's time to chill at the beach and follow S2K on my Droid2 via Tapatalk...

SFT

[SEASON_CANCELED]

how much time do we have to prepare? Till Tuesday?

[Dean4Storms]

This could still easily end up in the eastern Gulf and nobody should imply that it couldn't. It will all depend on where it begins that true turn and we've seen these models underestimate the ridging time and time again such as with Emily when they had her turning northward east of Hispaniola. With a struggling to develop system this could end up much further west before the turn around ridging.

[KWT]

Disagree.. it has a very large circulation that would not get too disrupted. Both models show it gaining tremendous strength in the Straits, they must see excellent upper level conditions. Sure it can easily not amount to anything but when global models continuously and have continuously been stressing on a powerful hurricane in our general vicinity for the past 5 days then its hard not to ignore them.

On that track it probably would struggle to even become a hurricane, it takes a track very close to Fay.By the time it gets itself really going after that land interaction it'll be nearly at Florida.

Wuith the ECM you can probably take the pressure as an actual gauge for its strength since the resolution is high enough with that model these days, so ECM seeing a strong TS which would be reasonable given it only really gets 24hrs over water after Cuba. That maybe a little low but I'd be surprised if it managed to get much higher then a 1 on that track...which to be fair is all you need.

[ronjon]

Interesting now that we have the UKMET, CMC, & NOGAPS all GOM bound with the GFS/ECM now striking the peninsula - based on the 00z runs. In fact, GFS is now the eastern outlier. Still nagging me why the GFDL can't form a system after several runs in a row. HWRF does its usual exploding of the storm. Looks like many sleepless nights ahead although as KWT said, land interaction could play a big role here. I'd take a weak hurricane plowing up the spine of the state from the south as it would diminish to a tropical storm quickly plus it'll landfall in no mans land of the everglades.

[Scorpion]

I guess we'll see what happens. 990 mb lows on a global are not indicative of just a Cat 1.

[KWT]

ECM 990mbs would be pretty close to 990mbs Scorpion, its got a good enough resolution now for its forecast to be not that far off what its actually forecasting. The others less so that much is true but if you see ECM going for 990mbs, it probably wouldn't be a whole lot stronger then 990mbs and I trust it far more when it come to land interaction then the other models.

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting now that we have the UKMET, CMC, & NOGAPS all GOM bound with the GFS/ECM now striking the peninsula - based on the 00z runs. In fact, GFS is now the eastern outlier. Still nagging me why the GFDL can't form a system after several runs in a row. HWRF does its usual exploding of the storm. Looks like many sleepless nights ahead although as KWT said, land interaction could play a big role here. I'd take a weak hurricane plowing up the spine of the state from the south as it would diminish to a tropical storm quickly plus it'll landfall in no mans land of the everglades.

Actually the CMC and GFDL both keep it struggling through most of the Carib. Sea. The CMC doesn't do much with it until it gets almost south of Jamaica.

[KWT]

Actually the CMC and GFDL both keep it struggling through most of the Carib. Sea. The CMC doesn't do much with it until it gets almost south of Jamaica.

Yeah seems like a weaker system gets further west, but ironically probably would result in a much stronger hurricane threast down the line. A stronger TS hitting Hispaniola and then cuba and tearing itself apart then only getting 24hrs over water tops before Florida would be the best case here, the ECM track probably is close to the best case though its not good for Haiti or Cuba, shouldn't be a wind problem but rains can still be an issue.

[Scorpion]

Latest GFS shows same result

[KWT]

Yep, the GFS shows a decent system about to run up the spine of Florida.

Would probably be a stronger hurricane on the GFS simply because it avoids Cuba and Haiti in the main, and while its close to land throughout there is a big difference between the ECM and GFS solutions in possible strength.

Florida is quite a small target to aim for from the south, so who knows.

Not at all dissimiliar to Fay...

[northjaxpro]

Wow up the entire spine of florida...

Yeah, I have seen a couple of runs that depict this scenario, with landfall over the Keys and South FL, and the system moving N right up the spine of the peninsula as it moves right into the weakness. This scenario would be very bad for the state, one that gives me the chills each time I see this run.

Just pointing out that it seems that I am beginning to get concerned that this model is honing on this as a possible solution.

[DeanDaDream]

Wow up the entire spine of florida...

Yeah, I have seen a couple of runs that depict this scenario, with landfall over the Keys and South FL, and the system moving N right up the spine of the peninsula as it moves right into the weakness. This scenario would be very bad for the state, one that gives me the chills each time I see this run.

Just pointing out that it seems that I am beginning to get concerned that this model is honing on this as a possible solution.

Yes northjaxpro I know your concern I remember Jean back 2004 we had 60mph winds lost power for 6 days!

[ronjon]

Yep, the GFS shows a decent system about to run up the spine of Florida.

Would probably be a stronger hurricane on the GFS simply because it avoids Cuba and Haiti in the main, and while its close to land throughout there is a big difference between the ECM and GFS solutions in possible strength.

Florida is quite a small target to aim for from the south, so who knows.

Not at all dissimiliar to Fay...

Actually KWT, looking at the high resolution track of the 00z ECM and comparing it to the 06z GFS, they are remarkably similar - both take a track that skirts the SW side of Hispaniola and just off the southeastern coast of Cuba = both track just slightly south of the Cuban coast until they make the turn toward the N-NW. Found a really neat model run site at weatherunderground that shows a high resolution of ECM and GFS. Click on model data box, zoom out map, set map to terrain, and use 2 m RH above ground or 925 mb map type setting. Hit start arrow on forecast.

Model Site

[Blown Away]

Seems the Bams and TVCN are seeing the initial movement correctly, many of the other models see a WSW dip at the beginning which doesn't look like that will happen. The Bams and TVCN have been creeping a little N and it would not take much to skirt or miss Hispaniola.

[northjaxpro]

Seems the Bams and TVCN are seeing the initial movement correctly, many of the other models see a WSW dip at the beginning which doesn't look like that will happen. The Bams and TVCN have been creeping a little N and it would not take much to skirt or miss Hispaniola.

Yeah, 97L has been ever so slightly gaining a bit of latitude since yesterday as the system has begun organizing much earlier than the models and all of us had anticipated. I think the probabilities are increasing that 97L just may actually skirt or just miss Hispaniola to the north. Time will tell.