ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[SouthDadeFish]

97L is looking much better tonight, with what looks like banding forming around the LLC instead of the MLC.

[Hurricaneman]

The storms seem to be growing around the center, but the MLC is still about .7 degrees farther north which will probably keep this in check

[SouthDadeFish]

The storms seem to be growing around the center, but the MLC is still about .7 degrees farther north which will probably keep this in check

If convection continues to fire over the LLC and it becomes better defined, I would expect to see the two merge sometime tomorrow. This merge will probably happen closer to the LLC than the MLC in my opinion.

[Adoquín]

continues to grow.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I say 80% by the next NHC advisory at 2AM EST.

It continues to improve and look at that burst of convection now which is presumably near a center or developing center.

If this keeps up, should have a depression or even a tropical storm by Sat. late afternoon after the plane collects the data.

Movement looks around 275-280 or so but difficult to tell without VIS loops, so just a little bit north of due west.

Once it slows down in the Eastern Caribbean, could really crank up.

[Blown Away]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I say 80% by the next NHC advisory at 2AM EST.

It continues to improve and look at that burst of convection now which is presumably near a center or developing center.

If this keeps up, should have a depression or even a tropical storm by Sat. late afternoon after the plane collects the data.

Movement looks around 275-280 or so but difficult to tell without VIS loops, so just a little bit north of due west.

Once it slows down in the Eastern Caribbean, could really crank up.

Perfect analysis.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

2 AM TWO

70 %

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAVE
INCREASED A BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[FireRat]

I'm going to try a shot at this storm's future:

Tropical storm Irene (Or Jose if 99L gets named first for some reason) forms late Saturday/early Sunday as it affects the northern leewards. It will near Puerto Rico as a strengthening tropical storm and perhaps weak hurricane (something near 55-70 kts) early on Monday August 22. On August 23rd, the storm will skirt the northern part of Hispaniola or perhaps pass right over the island and leave it on the 24th, as a weak hurricane. On August 25, the storm will strengthen and take a swipe at the southern Bahamas and near South Florida as a hurricane later on the 25th. The afternoon of August 25th, the hurricane will pass through the Straits or cross the Florida Keys as a strong hurricane (Cat 2 or 3) on a track similar to Hurricane Georges of 1998. Miami and Fort Lauderdale should be on high watch on August 25th. On August 26, the storm will curve more NW after passing Florida and head for landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Apalachicola, FL on August 27 as a Major Hurricane.

Sounds nuts huh? I could be way off, but am taking into account the consistent model runs, my risk dates (something I'm testing), the high water temps ahead, the size of 97L, the time of year, some analog storms (1998 Georges), and just plain gut feeling.

Here's the disclaimer just in case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bamajammer4eva]

I'm going to try a shot at this storm's future:

Tropical storm Irene (Or Jose if 99L gets named first for some reason) forms late Saturday/early Sunday as it affects the northern leewards. It will near Puerto Rico as a strengthening tropical storm and perhaps weak hurricane (something near 55-70 kts) early on Monday August 22. On August 23rd, the storm will skirt the northern part of Hispaniola or perhaps pass right over the island and leave it on the 24th, as a weak hurricane. On August 25, the storm will strengthen and take a swipe at the southern Bahamas and near South Florida as a hurricane later on the 25th. The afternoon of August 25th, the hurricane will pass through the Straits or cross the Florida Keys as a strong hurricane (Cat 2 or 3) on a track similar to Hurricane Georges of 1998. Miami and Fort Lauderdale should be on high watch on August 25th. On August 26, the storm will curve more NW after passing Florida and head for landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Apalachicola, FL on August 27 as a Major Hurricane.

Sounds nuts huh? I could be way off, but am taking into account the consistent model runs, my risk dates (something I'm testing), the high water temps ahead, the size of 97L, the time of year, some analog storms (1998 Georges), and just plain gut feeling.

Here's the disclaimer just in case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The northeastern gulf gets hit once every 7-8 years so our due date doesn't come until 2012 or 2013 and since this region got hits in 2004 and 2005. Its not our time yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

I'm going to try a shot at this storm's future:

Tropical storm Irene (Or Jose if 99L gets named first for some reason) forms late Saturday/early Sunday as it affects the northern leewards. It will near Puerto Rico as a strengthening tropical storm and perhaps weak hurricane (something near 55-70 kts) early on Monday August 22. On August 23rd, the storm will skirt the northern part of Hispaniola or perhaps pass right over the island and leave it on the 24th, as a weak hurricane. On August 25, the storm will strengthen and take a swipe at the southern Bahamas and near South Florida as a hurricane later on the 25th. The afternoon of August 25th, the hurricane will pass through the Straits or cross the Florida Keys as a strong hurricane (Cat 2 or 3) on a track similar to Hurricane Georges of 1998. Miami and Fort Lauderdale should be on high watch on August 25th. On August 26, the storm will curve more NW after passing Florida and head for landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Apalachicola, FL on August 27 as a Major Hurricane.

Sounds nuts huh? I could be way off, but am taking into account the consistent model runs, my risk dates (something I'm testing), the high water temps ahead, the size of 97L, the time of year, some analog storms (1998 Georges), and just plain gut feeling.

Here's the disclaimer just in case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The northeastern gulf gets hit once every 7-8 years so our due date doesn't come until 2012 or 2013 and since this region got hits in 2004 and 2005. Its not our time yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I hope you're not affected by the coming storm, still though watch it closely in the days ahead. Sometimes climatology has a few burps. One such case was when New Orleans got hit by a major hurricane in 1779 and only 1 year later, during the famous 1780 season, it got clobbered by an even stronger hurricane. Let's hope this storm doesn't do much for all our sakes.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

AL, 97, 2011082006, , BEST, 0, 143N, 530W, 30, 1007, DB

[TwisterFanatic]

AL, 97, 2011082006, , BEST, 0, 143N, 530W, 30, 1007, DB

Right under that big blowup of convection.. Just what this need to take off.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking good...If it maintains the convection I'd say that we have liftoff. The vigorous vorticity that this system has had has been so impressive. That is what has me concerned. If this maintains that circulation and hits the really favorable environment...

SFT

[TBCaneFreak]

Everything seems to be unfolding per GFS's consitant model runs....Not Good at all.

[StarmanHDB]

Meanwhile at Station 41040 (14.477 N 53.008 W):

Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in (1009.13); -0.01 in ( Falling )

According to the collected 5 day data, this is the lowest the pressure has been at that station in the past five days. Our little storm is in the vicinity and appears to be gaining strength. Oh, joy....

[Janie2006]

The northeastern gulf gets hit once every 7-8 years so our due date doesn't come until 2012 or 2013 and since this region got hits in 2004 and 2005. Its not our time yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Climatology comes in very, very handy most of the time, but on occasion you can toss it right out the window. If the conditions are right and the atmospheric steering patterns favour a landfalling tropical cyclone on the northeastern Gulf Coast....it will come. Those figures of 7-8 years are historical averages and nothing more.

[dexterlabio]

The northeastern gulf gets hit once every 7-8 years so our due date doesn't come until 2012 or 2013 and since this region got hits in 2004 and 2005. Its not our time yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That stat is based on yearly average of systems making landfall in the northeastern gulf. I really don't think people should rely on it all the time. And also, whether an area gets hit once every 7-8 years based on statistics, it doesn't imply that it will happen exactly as it is. Say your area was "unexpectedly" hit by two storms within that 7 or 8-year range, it could be that the next storm to come will hit double that range.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL
20110820.0915.97LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-143N-530W

[Gustywind]

20/0545 UTC 13.8N 52.5W TOO WEAK 97L