ATL: IRENE - Models

#1141 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 pm

Yeah...I am sure it will bomb over the FL straits, especially when it somehow strengthened over the high mountains of Cuba! I'd say there is an issue with this model for strengthening systems over Cuba :eek:

Makes you wonder if it is overdoing the intensity. All kidding aside though the GFS has been very insistent on bombing this system out and we are only less than 150 hours away from that now.

Can't use the 8 day run excuse any longer.

#1142 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 pm

It's Cleo!

#1143 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:31 pm

Folks in SFL had better keep close tabs on this storm....The hits and near hits have continued all week and IMO southern fl may very well be dealing with this storm and a possible strong one at that...

#1144 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:31 pm

To be honest, with the 00Z GFS track, 97L could end up being a lot like Ernesto in 2006 in terms of intensity. It was pretty much nothing by the time it made landfall in S FL.

Kory · #1145 Postby **Kory** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:31 pm

Just saying, it looks like there is enough weakness to the east of Florida's coast that it could move to the north, east of Florida peninsula and make a recurve and not even make landfall in Florida. Depends on how much it strengthens before then...

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#1146 Postby **psyclone** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:31 pm

talk about Miami hurricanes! it's amazing what a relatively small shift in longitude can do when a storm is in the vicinity of the florida peninsula and approaching from the south/southeast.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1147 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 pm

FPL will be busy if this Run came to fruition

#1148 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 pm

H162 rides right up the spine of the state....near worst case scenario....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal162.gif

#1149 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:32 pm

GFS still shifting around...should get a good feel on a general area over the next day or two...I still doubt this goes east of Florida...central and eastern Gulf is my bet

ROCK · #1150 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:34 pm

Ivanhater wrote:GFS still shifting around...should get a good feel on a general area over the next day or two...I still doubt this goes east of Florida...central and eastern Gulf is my bet

I have to agree....but I do want to stay up for the EURO one more time tonight to verify....

#1151 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:34 pm

I say recurvature is between 80-85...I think the area from Biloxi to the Carolinas is the area at highest risk...

#1152 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:35 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:To be honest, with the 00Z GFS track, 97L could end up being a lot like Ernesto in 2006 in terms of intensity. It was pretty much nothing by the time it made landfall in S FL.

That's what I was thinking. Of coarse the GFS can change again so who really knows. How close it eventually gets to Hispanola and Cuba will be the key in terms of how strong it gets.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1153 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:35 pm

SC time

#1154 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:36 pm

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy. :eek:

Kory · #1155 Postby **Kory** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 pm

You realized how many cities the GFS has destroyed on its past runs? I'm not buying any of these shifts until we have a well established system in the Caribbean...it could curve northward to the east of Florida and not be a United States problem.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1156 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:38 pm

Well thats enough GFS for 1Am

#1157 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yeah...I am sure it will bomb over the FL straits, especially when it somehow strengthened over the high mountains of Cuba! I'd say there is an issue with this model for strengthening systems over Cuba

Makes you wonder if it is overdoing the intensity. All kidding aside though the GFS has been very insistent on bombing this system out and we are only less than 150 hours away from that now.

Can't use the 8 day run excuse any longer.

Gator, IMO the days of "for entertainment purposes only" are lover and as the system continues to organize tonight and into the weekend folks had better be ready to put there plans into action.....

maxintensity · #1158 Postby **maxintensity** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 pm

Dr. No will set it straight in just over 1 hour. GFS did good to pickup on development, but it's time for the big boy model.

Scorpion · #1159 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:40 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:To be honest, with the 00Z GFS track, 97L could end up being a lot like Ernesto in 2006 in terms of intensity. It was pretty much nothing by the time it made landfall in S FL.

The GFS never did squat with Ernesto, and certainly nothing compared to what it is doing here.

#1160 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:40 pm

I want to see tonight's CMC and especially the Euro. If both agree, then things will get interesting.

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