ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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ozonepete
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#501 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:14 pm

:uarrow: Absolutely. We're just speculating now. Although it's fun to speculate. :) In fact, we're addicted to it. :wink:
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question about DGEX 18 z Plot

#502 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:17 pm

If 97L was to move 50 miles off the west coast wouldnt those to the east of the center get some of the worst weather?
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Re: question about DGEX 18 z Plot

#503 Postby storm4u » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:19 pm

yes but this doesnt need a new thread


bucman1 wrote:If 97L was to move 50 miles off the west coast wouldnt those to the east of the center get some of the worst weather?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#504 Postby red herring » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:20 pm

Goodnight

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGd4jkaoHRg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#505 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:21 pm

Convection is certainly on the decrease tonight..still think it will take another day or two

Image
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#506 Postby storm4u » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:24 pm

this looks to be at 15n now or close to it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#507 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:26 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Convection is certainly on the decrease tonight..still think it will take another day or two

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg


Despite that,it has a nice structure.
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#508 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:27 pm

My best guess as to when 97L might become a TD would be during the day Sunday as it passes thru the Lesser Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#509 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:28 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Convection is certainly on the decrease tonight..still think it will take another day or two

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg


Yeah. Two things are obvious right now:
1. Convection has dropped a lot over the last few hours.
2. The LLC is either now, or will be when it forms, noticeably north of Best Track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#510 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:28 pm

Microwave suggest a weak LLC south of the MLC

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#511 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:30 pm

I agree with IVAN...nice presentation but we saw this with Harvey......he struggled....the CMC and GFDL latest runs agree with this....just have to see what it looks like later tonight and into tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#512 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:30 pm

Closer to 14 north

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#513 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:31 pm

Mike,to me that suggest it needs a wee bit more stacking.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#514 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:33 pm

ROCK wrote:Mike,to me that suggest it needs a wee bit more stacking.... :lol:


not going to be easy with that aggressive forward motion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#515 Postby Adoquín » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:33 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Convection is certainly on the decrease tonight..still think it will take another day or two

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg


Yeah. Two things are obvious right now:
1. Convection has dropped a lot over the last few hours.
2. The LLC is either now, or will be when it forms, noticeably north of Best Track.



convection may have dropped but at this stage the structure is the best it has had.
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#516 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:33 pm

Convection will be coming back over the next few hours. Actually it has already started.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#517 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:34 pm

Yep Microwave backs up Best track right now around 14 north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#518 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:35 pm

ROCK wrote:I agree with IVAN...nice presentation but we saw this with Harvey......he struggled....the CMC and GFDL latest runs agree with this....just have to see what it looks like later tonight and into tomorrow.


Harvey never had this kind of structure though. It was just a bunch of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This isn't supposed to develop at this point and time anyhow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#519 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:47 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:
ROCK wrote:I agree with IVAN...nice presentation but we saw this with Harvey......he struggled....the CMC and GFDL latest runs agree with this....just have to see what it looks like later tonight and into tomorrow.


Harvey never had this kind of structure though. It was just a bunch of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This isn't supposed to develop at this point and time anyhow.


Harvey had this type of structure more than once only to poof.....it had a strong MLC all thru the carib and then finally popped a LLC.....MLC's always have nice structure. Its underneith that counts....
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#520 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:50 pm

Thats looks like the skeleton of a hurricane. :eek:
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