ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Plane ascending to 700 mb and heading away is a good sign that this mission is likely over.

They ascended to 700mb because they feel its getting too strong to stay at 850. They're making another pass.

[supercane]

Oops, you're right:

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200120
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 32 20110820
011030 1629N 08600W 6968 03165 //// +084 //// 036018 020 005 001 05
011100 1627N 08601W 6965 03169 //// +084 //// 034019 019 002 000 05
011130 1625N 08602W 6966 03168 //// +083 //// 034018 019 003 000 05
011200 1624N 08603W 6969 03166 //// +085 //// 029018 019 007 003 01
011230 1622N 08604W 6964 03172 //// +075 //// 017021 023 013 004 01
011300 1620N 08605W 6969 03166 //// +082 //// 019018 019 007 002 01
011330 1619N 08606W 6965 03171 //// +084 //// 029021 022 009 002 05
011400 1617N 08607W 6970 03166 //// +086 //// 031021 022 006 002 05
011430 1615N 08608W 6967 03169 //// +089 //// 032022 022 003 001 05
011500 1613N 08609W 6965 03172 //// +084 //// 029020 020 000 001 05
011530 1612N 08610W 6967 03169 //// +086 //// 033020 020 001 000 05
011600 1610N 08611W 6970 03168 //// +088 //// 024020 021 001 001 05
011630 1608N 08612W 6963 03177 //// +084 //// 021023 023 000 003 05
011700 1607N 08611W 6967 03171 //// +083 //// 019021 022 /// /// 05
011730 1606N 08610W 6969 03171 //// +083 //// 027019 020 003 001 05
011800 1606N 08608W 6964 03174 //// +083 //// 028019 020 002 002 05
011830 1606N 08606W 6967 03171 //// +080 //// 029020 021 004 001 05
011900 1606N 08605W 6967 03171 //// +084 //// 035019 020 011 001 01
011930 1607N 08603W 6963 03173 //// +087 //// 036019 020 008 002 01
012000 1607N 08601W 6966 03169 //// +089 //// 031018 018 006 002 01
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

19/2345 UTC 16.1N 84.9W T3.0/3.0 HARVEY -- Atlantic

[SouthDadeFish]

Look out Belize:

[SouthDadeFish]

Unfortunately I think Harvey is poised for RI. Check out the beautiful banding:



We may not be far away from our first hurricane of the year.

[supercane]

[ozonepete]

Unfortunately I think Harvey is poised for RI. Check out the beautiful banding:



We may not be far away from our first hurricane of the year.

With very little reservation, I have to agree. That area is notorious for RI.

[SouthDadeFish]

Hopefully he does not finish building off an eyewall before landfall. If he does complete his eyewall, there really isn't anything to stop him from bombing besides landfall. But like I said, until an eyewall is established intensification will be more "gradual."

(Not a professional forecast, just my opinion through observation)

[supercane]

Very small core as seen in latest microwave:

Those 61kt SFMR winds were flagged, so will have to see if they are replicated in the next pass. Does look to be intensifying, but no rapid drop in pressure yet.

[Macrocane]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 200130
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 33 20110820
012030 1607N 08559W 6969 03164 //// +083 //// 019017 018 009 002 05
012100 1607N 08558W 6971 03162 //// +085 //// 023020 021 007 002 05
012130 1607N 08556W 6963 03171 //// +082 //// 029019 019 008 001 01
012200 1607N 08554W 6968 03164 //// +085 //// 032019 019 007 000 01
012230 1607N 08552W 6967 03166 //// +085 //// 036018 019 008 002 05
012300 1607N 08551W 6967 03166 //// +089 //// 037019 019 005 000 05
012330 1607N 08549W 6969 03163 //// +090 //// 042020 021 010 001 01
012400 1607N 08547W 6967 03166 //// +091 //// 044021 021 015 001 01
012430 1607N 08545W 6962 03172 //// +086 //// 040022 023 020 001 01
012500 1607N 08544W 6966 03164 //// +084 //// 032020 021 022 003 01
012530 1607N 08542W 6968 03163 //// +091 //// 031020 021 021 003 01
012600 1607N 08540W 6967 03162 //// +089 //// 025020 020 022 001 01
012630 1607N 08538W 6969 03160 //// +093 //// 027020 024 020 002 05
012700 1607N 08537W 6966 03164 //// +090 //// 038017 018 025 003 01
012730 1607N 08535W 6973 03155 //// +080 //// 041020 022 027 004 01
012800 1607N 08533W 6966 03162 //// +068 //// 021028 030 034 013 05
012830 1606N 08531W 6966 03160 //// +069 //// 021026 029 033 016 05
012900 1606N 08530W 6974 03154 //// +081 //// 034025 026 038 014 05
012930 1606N 08528W 6963 03166 //// +097 //// 035027 029 032 009 05
013000 1606N 08526W 6961 03168 //// +082 //// 026026 027 038 014 01
$$
;

[supercane]

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200140
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 34 20110820
013030 1606N 08525W 6965 03163 //// +079 //// 036023 024 039 014 01
013100 1606N 08523W 6968 03157 //// +086 //// 034023 025 033 006 01
013130 1606N 08521W 6970 03157 //// +093 //// 032021 022 021 002 01
013200 1606N 08519W 6971 03154 //// +086 //// 027023 023 014 001 01
013230 1607N 08518W 6966 03161 //// +085 //// 027022 022 019 000 01
013300 1607N 08516W 6966 03158 //// +090 //// 030020 021 018 000 01
013330 1607N 08514W 6972 03151 //// +093 //// 022018 018 015 000 01
013400 1607N 08512W 6967 03156 //// +098 //// 022020 020 014 001 01
013430 1608N 08511W 6965 03155 //// +100 //// 015020 022 017 000 01
013500 1608N 08509W 6963 03156 //// +096 //// 017025 027 024 001 01
013530 1608N 08507W 6963 03156 //// +105 //// 013027 029 028 000 01
013600 1608N 08505W 6972 03134 //// +122 //// 006029 030 028 002 01
013630 1608N 08503W 6976 03124 //// +131 //// 357024 032 025 001 05
013700 1608N 08502W 6959 03135 //// +140 //// 330012 013 020 001 05
013730 1608N 08500W 6965 03121 //// +133 //// 276005 011 020 003 05
013800 1610N 08459W 6970 03111 //// +131 //// 114008 016 022 003 05
013830 1611N 08458W 6976 03106 //// +123 //// 100036 040 036 003 05
013900 1613N 08457W 6967 03123 //// +118 //// 111049 053 044 002 01
013930 1615N 08457W 6968 03133 //// +129 //// 114046 049 046 001 01
014000 1616N 08456W 6971 03139 //// +121 //// 103042 045 044 002 05
$$

[supercane]

[Adoquín]

I hope the Belize government begins contemplating the possibility of a hurricane that will will last for 24 hours, at the rate it is moving

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200150
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 35 20110820
014030 1618N 08456W 6972 03138 //// +118 //// 101039 041 045 003 05
014100 1620N 08456W 6961 03156 //// +122 //// 097043 044 045 002 05
014130 1622N 08456W 6967 03148 //// +118 //// 097043 044 042 002 01
014200 1623N 08456W 6971 03146 //// +119 //// 094042 042 036 002 01
014230 1625N 08456W 6964 03157 //// +115 //// 093042 042 034 002 01
014300 1627N 08456W 6969 03155 //// +113 //// 092043 044 033 003 01
014330 1629N 08456W 6968 03158 //// +109 //// 089039 040 031 001 05
014400 1631N 08456W 6966 03161 //// +103 //// 091037 038 030 000 05
014430 1632N 08456W 6969 03160 //// +100 //// 089035 036 031 000 01
014500 1634N 08457W 6967 03161 //// +097 //// 089035 035 028 000 05
014530 1636N 08457W 6969 03161 //// +098 //// 087034 034 028 000 01
014600 1638N 08457W 6963 03167 //// +095 //// 086033 034 028 001 01
014630 1639N 08457W 6967 03163 //// +100 //// 085033 033 026 001 01
014700 1641N 08457W 6966 03166 //// +100 //// 088032 032 026 001 01
014730 1643N 08457W 6969 03163 //// +100 //// 092033 033 026 001 01
014800 1645N 08457W 6970 03163 //// +100 //// 096033 034 024 000 01
014830 1647N 08457W 6965 03171 //// +095 //// 092034 034 022 000 05
014900 1648N 08457W 6967 03168 //// +091 //// 092034 034 020 000 05
014930 1650N 08457W 6967 03168 //// +090 //// 094034 035 020 001 05
015000 1652N 08457W 6967 03169 //// +092 //// 094034 035 020 000 01

[supercane]

[supercane]

000
URNT12 KNHC 200156
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 20/01:37:50Z
B. 16 deg 09 min N
084 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 3077 m
D. 39 kt
E. 264 deg 24 nm
F. 013 deg 31 kt
G. 266 deg 31 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 7 C / 3064 m
J. 14 C / 3056 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 15
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 01:39:00Z
GOOD SPIRAL BAND; NEARLY PINPOINTED FL CNTR
MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 46 KTS, NE QUAD, 01:39:30Z
FQT LTG IN CONVECTION NEAR FL CNTR
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest fix was at 997mb. Steady pressure drop of about 1mb/hour. If that continues to landfall we'll easily be looking at Hurricane Harvey.

EDIT: Also just noticed the core has steadily gotten warmer than the outside with each VDM. Now a nice 7 degrees difference. The first VDM of this flight was only a 3 degree difference. If that convective burst can persist, I would assume pressures would continue to fall at a steady rate. (Again, just my opinion)

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200200
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 36 20110820
015030 1654N 08457W 6968 03168 //// +093 //// 095034 034 020 000 01
015100 1656N 08458W 6965 03173 //// +100 //// 093033 034 020 000 05
015130 1657N 08458W 6969 03168 //// +097 //// 094033 034 022 000 05
015200 1659N 08458W 6967 03169 //// +097 //// 096033 034 021 000 01
015230 1701N 08458W 6967 03170 //// +100 //// 096034 034 020 000 05
015300 1703N 08458W 6966 03172 //// +095 //// 094034 034 020 000 05
015330 1705N 08458W 6968 03168 //// +093 //// 095033 033 021 001 05
015400 1706N 08458W 6967 03170 //// +090 //// 093033 034 021 000 05
015430 1708N 08457W 6967 03168 //// +093 //// 092033 033 020 000 05
015500 1710N 08457W 6970 03166 //// +095 //// 092032 033 016 000 01
015530 1712N 08457W 6967 03170 //// +098 //// 094034 034 017 001 05
015600 1713N 08457W 6966 03171 //// +099 //// 094033 033 012 002 01
015630 1715N 08457W 6967 03170 //// +101 //// 094033 033 018 000 01
015700 1717N 08457W 6967 03171 //// +100 //// 095033 033 019 001 05
015730 1719N 08457W 6967 03173 //// +097 //// 095033 033 017 001 01
015800 1720N 08457W 6967 03173 //// +095 //// 098034 034 019 000 05
015830 1722N 08457W 6967 03176 //// +095 //// 098033 034 020 000 01
015900 1724N 08457W 6966 03179 //// +096 //// 096033 034 016 001 01
015930 1726N 08457W 6967 03177 //// +094 //// 095033 033 017 001 05
020000 1728N 08457W 6964 03179 //// +087 //// 097035 035 020 003 01
$$
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