ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Looks that way to me, but I wouldn't think it'll make THAT much difference way down the road. I still think it's looking more like it may pass west of the FL Peninsula. How far west? I'll tell you next week.

A smart man. LOL!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

My proximity to water, shown by my porch view:

[ConvergenceZone]

jlauderdal, yeah sure looks that way, should help development. Development earlier in turn should help to lift the system into Hispaniola or maybe even a smidge north of there...which in turn increases the chances it goes north before the US...though I'd not raise my hopes about that to be honest...

That sort of MLC is impressive, NHC kept the expanded red circle due to the vort and the weak turning that is further south BUT clearly the MLC is going to try and be the main feature, esp if there is a big burst soon...

I was thinking the same thing KWT, but with the forecasted massive high pressure to the north of it, I just can't see this recurving out to sea no matter how strong it gets... but I can see it going north of Hispaniola if it gets stronger than anticipated.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Looks that way to me, but I wouldn't think it'll make THAT much difference way down the road. I still think it's looking more like it may pass west of the FL Peninsula. How far west? I'll tell you next week.

The weakness is a little more pronounced in recent model runs but its still not that strong its got to be said so always possible that it misses the first bite of the cherry like it does on the GFS.

If the formation 1 degree further north is what happens, it'll probably make a huge difference with regards to intensity between say 96-144hrs, the difference between a track over the Caribbean waters and a track over 2000M ground will be noticeable..unless it pulls a Georges of course!

yeah..IF it goes just north of DR, it would be like staying just south, or maybe even worse in terms of intensity.

[ozonepete]

Just about all of the activity today with 97L indicates a track a little farther north and that would mean just north of Haiti. Of course it's all moot until RECON goes in.

[Brent]

Quite impressive now. Development chances next 48 hours at least 90%. Definitely a TD or even a TS tomorrow if this trend continues tonight.

Agree strongly, and the structure is amazing, like we haven't seen this year.

[Adoquín]

Thanks but it certainly looks like it is gaining lattitude gradually looking at the SAT loops. If I extrapolate, looks like Northern Leewards/Puerto Rico area..so far I am not seeing the W to WSW dip some of the models like the GFS and CMC are wanting to do with it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

agree totally, it is us under the gun according to everything I am seeing not DR, especially if it gains more intensity than they are forecasting faster than they think.

btw it seems like the circulation is trying to bring that big red blob to its south closer into it, more fuel if correct

[Aric Dunn]

Seems the trend today is continuing especially if this is the start of a new convective burst with mlc/ developing llc

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[storm4u]

looks to be moving wnw then

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[KWT]

I was thinking the same thing KWT, but with the forecasted massive high pressure to the north of it, I just can't see this recurving out to sea no matter how strong it gets... but I can see it going north of Hispaniola if it gets stronger than anticipated.

The thing is there is a weakness progged by 168hrs, hence why all the models start to lift it out either NW or in some models case near due north. There doesn't appear to be enough depth to 'recurve' and instead it'll sorta just head NNW/N/NNE but if that happens early enough it could shift the threat further east and north into the Carolinas/Bahamas for example.

Equally possible is thaty it goes over Haiti/Cuba and weakens somewhat allowing it to get further west...but then again ECM did that on its 12z ruin and shifted a smidge east so who knows!

Long way to go yet!

[gatorcane]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I don't see anything at 13.9N, but do at 15.1 N, near the high tower.

It's difficult to be sure though since it is at night.

[Gustywind]

19/2345 UTC 13.6N 50.6W TOO WEAK 97L

[HurricaneWarning92]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I don't see anything at 13.9N, but do at 15.1 N, near the high tower.

It's difficult to be sure though since it is at night.

I see it around 15 N too, but either way, it has gained some latitude thats for sure.

[Adoquín]

looks to be moving wnw then

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

it could be the sucking action of the mid level to its north, seeking to stack at 15n

[ozonepete]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I don't see anything at 13.9N, but do at 15.1 N, near the high tower.

It's difficult to be sure though since it is at night.

I'm with you. Don't see 13.9 at all.

[KWT]

Yeah there isn't anything at 13.9N, there is strong circulation with the MLC that may or may not be trying to do something and weaker lower level vortex down at 12-13N...maybe they are just going with the middle ground for now till they are more confident of the solution?

I'm getting a very similar feeling to this as I did with Fay...the TC that hated water!

[Aric Dunn]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I don't see anything at 13.9N, but do at 15.1 N, near the high tower.

It's difficult to be sure though since it is at night.

This happens every time.. wait for visible.

[KWT]

Given its currently at code red, looks highly probable recon WILL be flying tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011082000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 518W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I don't see anything at 13.9N, but do at 15.1 N, near the high tower.

It's difficult to be sure though since it is at night.

I'm with you. Don't see 13.9 at all.

They may be following those positions for continuity,but the real answer to where is the LLC if there is one will be recon tommorow afternoon.