ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Careful, that is the MLC. We will have to see where the LLC develops. We have seen many systems this season have impressive MLC but not necessarily be the LLC.

[KWT]

MLC is very impressive BUT lower level circulation IS furtjher south, maybe around the 13-13.5N mark and not all that well defined...

Don't get suckered by the impressive MLC, its not stacked at the moment.

If the MLC does enjd up being the center...then the chances of it smashing into Hispaniola really increases and with it the threat of a major goes down as well...

Heading currently is smack bang on the ECM forecast, which rolls the whole way down Hispaniola and Cuba as a weak TS before finally getting going briefly before plunging inland over Florida.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Code red at 8 PM by only seeing the latest images.

Im also confident it will be code red at 8pm; otherwise I would be shocked

[Aric Dunn]

Careful, that is the MLC. We will have to see where the LLC develops. We have seen many systems this season have impressive MLC but not necessarily be the LLC.

yeah it is ... plenty of evidence showing the beginnings of a more defined low level feature. still not defined enough but compared to this morning its way way closer..

[gatorcane]

Here we go.

Yep in Boca Raton, FL in South, FL...same forecast...just being cautious I guess.

[gatorcane]

Careful, that is the MLC. We will have to see where the LLC develops. We have seen many systems this season have impressive MLC but not necessarily be the LLC.

yeah it is ... plenty of evidence showing the beginnings of a more defined low level feature. still not defined enough but compared to this morning its way way closer..

Yeah but that MLC could work down to the surface and form an LLC. We have seen that before also.....

I think the LLC may form there.

[Aric Dunn]

MLC is very impressive BUT lower level circulation IS furtjher south, maybe around the 13-13.5N mark and not all that well defined...

Don't get suckered by the impressive MLC, its not stacked at the moment.

If the MLC does enjd up being the center...then the chances of it smashing into Hispaniola really increases and with it the threat of a major goes down as well...

Heading currently is smack bang on the ECM forecast, which rolls the whole way down Hispaniola and Cuba as a weak TS before finally getting going briefly before plunging inland over Florida.

nothing at 13 N way to far south on the wave axis.

[KWT]

yeah it is ... plenty of evidence showing the beginnings of a more defined low level feature. still not defined enough but compared to this morning its way way closer..

If it is the LLC then the ECM looks spot on with the track and with it...Hello Hispaniola and with it weakening...hopefully the ECM is correct because it reduces the threat of a major in a HUGE way...

Should be code red one way or the other.

[Ivanhater]

Careful, that is the MLC. We will have to see where the LLC develops. We have seen many systems this season have impressive MLC but not necessarily be the LLC.

yeah it is ... plenty of evidence showing the beginnings of a more defined low level feature. still not defined enough but compared to this morning its way way closer..

We'll see how it evolves over night...18z GFS still does not have this consolidating until the Islands...Canadian even slower.

[gatorcane]

You can really see the mid-level spin here in this IR rainbow loop...at about 15N headed just north of due west...

click the Lattitude checkbox to get the lat and long..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[Ivanhater]

Nothing at the surface yet

[pricetag56]

Pretty impressive structure!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

looks just as good as harvey

[northjaxpro]

18z Surface analyisis.

The surface analysis also depicts 97L moving a bit north of due west currently.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it is ... plenty of evidence showing the beginnings of a more defined low level feature. still not defined enough but compared to this morning its way way closer..

If it is the LLC then the ECM looks spot on with the track and with it...Hello Hispaniola.

Should be code red one way or the other.

Take a look at TPW 13N is too far south .. the best track position is pretty darn close to the MLC. Also look to east of the MLC and the curved low level cloud lines and extrapolate west... and do the same from the west side of the large circ and extrapolate east the rough center of the overall low level circ ( although still fairly broad but tightening ) NEAR 15 N and 51W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

oh and I dont believe its all the way to the surface yet..

[maxx9512]

Good bit of convection gained today.

From 08:45z
[img]



To 21:15z
[img]

[KWT]

The problem with the MLC is there is no hint of any westerly winds, the winds stream down the western flank and only start to get westerly motion around 12.5-13N...

Thats the main reason I'm not overly convinced by the MLC...yet.

What i will say is there is good inflow coming in from the east...that tends to be a good signpost for a developing LLC.

Lets hope thats the case Aric, gonna have a nice date with Hispaniola...unless it really bombs away and clears it to the north, but if that happens the odds of it just curving before Florida increases alot as well...

[Aric Dunn]

Nothing at the surface yet

[img]http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/oscat_50_prod/products/2011231_10084_10085_5.gif[/ig]

that was almost 5 hours ago..

[Ivanhater]

The point is, I'm not getting carried away with the MLC yet. Not saying that is not where the LLC could set up though.

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry almost 7 hours old..

[KWT]

The point is, I'm not getting carried away with the MLC yet. Not saying that is not where the LLC could set up though.

Yeah, I've seen even better looking MLC not have anything at the surface, Emily proved how badly we can be fooled by such features.

Still it does look like its trying to sdpin up something around that region.