ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[ozonepete]

Looking at the RGB you can see some inflow in the lower clouds. I'd certainly put the center north of 14N. If the models have missed this and it forms north of where they think the entire track could shift north and if it develops more rapidly it could even turn that much further north and miss wide right by a hundred miles.

Point is until theres an actual center this is all up in the air. I'd imagine with the rapidly improving satellite appearance they will be warming a plane up for a flight by tomorrow or sunday am?

I believe one is scheduled for tomorrow, right cyclone?

[Scorpion]

Definitely looking pretty good, if it develops tomorrow then that would be faster than anticipated.

[ozonepete]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think red by 8PM.

[shaggy]

Looking at the RGB you can see some inflow in the lower clouds. I'd certainly put the center north of 14N. If the models have missed this and it forms north of where they think the entire track could shift north and if it develops more rapidly it could even turn that much further north and miss wide right by a hundred miles.

Point is until theres an actual center this is all up in the air. I'd imagine with the rapidly improving satellite appearance they will be warming a plane up for a flight by tomorrow or sunday am?

they have it set for tomorrow. I bet at 8pm they go up to at least 50% maybe 60%

Really impressive organization over the past 12 hours. I am in no way confident in any model solution at this point if this decides to ramp up quickly. The dry air seems to have been choked out and away from the system and with the help of dmax tonight anything could happen at the rate it showed organization today.

[Blown Away]

JB has it at 15N and 50W.

That's @90 miles N of 18Z, if he is right that could affect the Hispaniola ride.

[Aric Dunn]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I mentioned it on the last page.

[Blown Away]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If the 18z position is correct all that convection is NW of the circulation, so that isn't that organized. If a LLC tucks closer to the convection then maybe TD by tomorrow. It's definitely getting better organized as time goes by.

[Nimbus]

The deepest convection is up around 15N but there may be some light shear from the south. The inflow seems to be pulling up from the south. There was a pretty sharp pressure drop as 97L passed over the buoy last night so recon may well find a LLC by the time they get out there.

[painkillerr]

IMO, the difference between 97L being a big cane for Florida or not will be Hispaniola. Many models go down the spine, if there is a shift of @100 miles N of Hispaniola SFL better watch out, JMHO!!

Hey Florida guys... keep an eye on us here in the islands!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If the 18z position is correct all that convection is NW of the circulation, so that isn't that organized. If that LLC tucks closer to the convection then maybe TD by tomorrow. It's definitely getting better organized as time goes by.

Still has the feathery look though where there are no deep Tstorms and one gulp of that dry air all around it could push the reset button..

[gatorcane]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think red by 8PM.

I would say yes but the NHC will probably gradually ramp up, though 60% is a possibility...which would be code red.

[Aric Dunn]

its going to pass right over this buoy later tonight and in the morning.. pressure falling pretty fast. already 1008 and my estimated center is still about a 100 miles away. pressure likely down to 1004 to 1005

[plasticup]

I think "Irene" sounds like a monster storm, which this is likely to be. They better not waste such a good name on that punk 98L

[gatorcane]

Aric, do you expect convection to really blow up later tonight with DMAX?

[ozonepete]

Folks, anybody starting to see a mid-level spin here now? I think I see one developing...its starting to come together...I say code red by tomorrow AM at the latest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think red by 8PM.

I would say yes but the NHC will probably gradually ramp up, though 60% is a possibility...which would be code red.

That's exactly what I'm thinkin'.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do you expect convection to really blow up later tonight with DMAX?

Yes especially if we do have a weak LLC developing ( which seems to be the case) and given the dry air is quickly moistening up and the low level convergence continues to increase as well as good upper support. the likely hood of it has come up substantially. development tomorrow seem highly likely.

[gatorcane]

Yeah the more I look at it, the more I really think it is coming together especially the last few hours. Really impressive progress on this one today. Looks like I still see a slight north of west movement (no WSW movement)...looks like it is gaining a little bit of lattitude.

Will be interesting to see what the NHC says at the next advisory, but code red seems likely.

[Aric Dunn]

Also note the shift to NNE at the buoy its approaching.. if that switches to N or even NW tonight ... we are probably looking at a TD tomorrow sooner rather than later..

[Blown Away]

IMO, the difference between 97L being a big cane for Florida or not will be Hispaniola. Many models go down the spine, if there is a shift of @100 miles N of Hispaniola SFL better watch out, JMHO!!

Hey Florida guys... keep an eye on us here in the islands!!

You know Luis & Gusty, looking like you guys might have to deal with at least a TS at this point! Models tightly clustered over you. JMHO, I'm thinking this will be a cane near PR.

For the record, I hollered out to my island homies a few hours ago and didn't get any love back! We are watching!!