ATL: IRENE - Models

[northjaxpro]

If that trough coming down into the Eastern U.S. next week amplifies a bit more than forecast, it's very plausible a Donna like track through the FL peninsula may occur, provided 097L somehow manages to track just north of PR, Hispaniola and Cuba and moves into the FL Straits, which also is possible.

Oh these models! The constant fluctuations and flip-flopping. This is why I love tropical weather. They are so intriguing folks. I appreciate Ivanhater and others posting these model runs and tracking thier history these past several days.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian is very far south...South of Jamaica

[Aric Dunn]

12z Canadian is very far south...South of Jamaica

[img]http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif[/ig]

yeah but I bet it does its hard right turn again... been doing that last few runs..

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian is very far south...South of Jamaica

[img]http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif[/ig]

yeah but I bet it does its hard right turn again... been doing that last few runs..

Could but ridging holds on longer this run..at least through 120 hours

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian 144 hours....very far south...Yucatan hit?

[Ivanhater]

Ugh it updated then went back...wait a few seconds for last image to update

Edit..there we go

[Aric Dunn]

Geezz i hate looking at those maps like that.. lol ill just wait till it finishes and shows up on the FSU site.

[Ivanhater]

After looking closely, there is a weakness in the central Gulf so when the longer range Canadian updates it should turn into the Gulf but on a WNW to NW heading

[Ivanhater]

Geezz i hate looking at those maps like that.. lol ill just wait till it finishes and shows up on the FSU site.

I know..bad on the neck isn't it?

[Sambucol]

After looking closely, there is a weakness in the central Gulf so when the longer range Canadian updates it should turn into the Gulf but on a WNW to NW heading

I can't see the graphics from my location. Is there a shift back toward Texas?

[AHS2011]

Right now, I'm getting the sense that no one knows where this system will go until it actually forms.

[Ivanhater]

After looking closely, there is a weakness in the central Gulf so when the longer range Canadian updates it should turn into the Gulf but on a WNW to NW heading

I can't see the graphics from my location. Is there a shift back toward Texas?

Sitting in the NW Caribbean intensifiying. Weakness in the Gulf, should turn in the Gulf similar to yesterday's 12z Euro. Hard to speculate though.

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm getting kind of tired of the "we don't even have a center yet" comments, we know that but as other memebers have said we're just watching run after run and talking about it, that's the point of this thread, isn't it?

Yeah, if I never hear that or "models this far out are so unreliable" again in a models thread, it won't be too soon. These are not particularly profound observations; perhaps they should be a "sticky" or part of the S2K disclaimer.

(While I'm at it, I'd like to propose Belle's Law, a variation of Godwin's Law, which states "As an tropical cyclone discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Katrina approaches 1 [100%].")

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"]After looking closely, there is a weakness in the central Gulf so when the longer range Canadian updates it should turn into the Gulf but on a WNW to NW heading[/quote]


I actually feel better when I see my area targeted for a hit in the early runs...usually they don't pan out and that's a good thing. I'll just sit back and watch the models go back and forth for the next few days...always very entertaining and intriguing...

[wxman57]

Way too early to get too concerned about a 7-10 day track. Somewhere between Texas and the Carolinas according to the GFS in recent runs. Euro spread is from SE LA to the Carolinas. Canadian is now trending farther west, west of the FL Peninsula on the 12Z run. I don't think it'll be a TS when it enters the eastern Caribbean early Sunday morning (less than 36 hours from now). Maybe a 50% shot at a TS by Sunday afternoon. If it's slower to develop, then you'll see the global models trend farther west of the FL Peninsula with time. I'd still like to see some evidence that it's actually starting to get better organized before I have much confidence in a track beyond 2-3 days.

[Blown Away]

The TVCN will lead you to the truth!

[gatorcane]

Way too early to get too concerned about a 7-10 day track. Somewhere between Texas and the Carolinas according to the GFS in recent runs. Euro spread is from SE LA to the Carolinas. Canadian is now trending farther west, west of the FL Peninsula on the 12Z run. I don't think it'll be a TS when it enters the eastern Caribbean early Sunday morning (less than 36 hours from now). Maybe a 50% shot at a TS by Sunday afternoon. If it's slower to develop, then you'll see the global models trend farther west of the FL Peninsula with time. I'd still like to see some evidence that it's actually starting to get better organized before I have much confidence in a track beyond 2-3 days.

I agree with that, a weaker system should head more west...

As for the CMC, it is showing a much shallower low pressure system developing NE of the Great lakes in Canada by 144 hours than the GFS and especially the ECMWF, which deepens that low much more and drags a pretty significant trough down through the Eastern seaboard of the CONUS which scoops up this system near Cuba and sends it up through Florida and the SE CONUS.

I am going lean more with the ECMWF solution as it has proven to be the best model for predicting the strenghts of troughs in the long-range, more so than the GFS and CMC.

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

The TVCN will lead you to the truth!

Ha....if it only was a real model....

[ROCK]

12z cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Stops at the channel....there is your crossroads. Left/center/right....some tense moments coming up folks.....