ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW

Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out

Honestly. who knows?? 165 hours out?? We don't even have a named storm on the map and we are talking absolutes? What is the margin of error at 165 hours??? 500 miles???

We know that, we are just talking about this particular model run.

[Aric Dunn]

165 hours enters SE gulf heading NNW

Not going to be a Charley track..trough has lifted out

Honestly. who knows?? 165 hours out?? We don't even have a named storm on the map and we are talking absolutes? What is the margin of error at 165 hours??? 500 miles???

yeah we know... and not being absolute at all. just watching

[Blown Away]

Pensacola, another E shift.

[Ivanhater]

Who has the updated GFS list

[ddad040]

Loos more like Dennis 2005 track so far

Elena 1985?

[Ivanhater]

Pensacola, another E shift.

West shift..it hit the big bend last run

[PTrackerLA]

ACtually that's a west shift from 06z.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Donna like maybe wxman57?

For those members that dont remember the Donna track,here it is.

I mentioned that last night, Cycloneye you trying to make me feel old I was in key west when she hit.

[Ivanhater]

Updated GFS!


06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29
06Z Fri: Big bend 8/28
12Z Fri: Pensacola 8/29

[weatherguy2]

Using the best consensus, I think we might end up having a path similar to one of these:
Frederic 1979
Camille 1969
Lili 2002
Elena 1985
Ivan 2004
Gustav 2008 (2008 a good analog year for 2011)
Dennis 2005 (2005 a good analog year for 2011)
1915 Galveston hurricane
1909 central LA hurricane
1851 FL panhandle hurricane
1917 FL panhandle hurricane

Dennis was on my list.

[sittingduck]

Thanks all of you that posted and remarked on this run. I have been coming and reading here for years and I think that was the most entertaining and educational reading yet lol.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks all of you that posted and remarked on this run. I have been coming and reading here for years and I think that was the most entertaining and educational reading yet lol.

The uncertainty is quite large with this one. I do believe this won't run up the east coast of Florida though so my bet is Gulf coast or Florida Peninsula at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

well if anyone is interested... 12z FNMOC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[weatherguy2]

On 12z GFS it was a 970 mb cane at landfall:

[Ivanhater]

well if anyone is interested... 12z FNMOC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

It's the Nogaps but similar to the 12z Nogaps

[Blown Away]

So latest GFS a little W to Pensacola and EURO was SFL and up EC, right??

[Aric Dunn]

well if anyone is interested... 12z FNMOC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

It's the Nogaps but similar to the 12z Nogaps

its the 12z nogaps.. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Macrocane]

I'm getting kind of tired of the "we don't even have a center yet" comments, we know that but as other memebers have said we're just watching run after run and talking about it, that's the point of this thread, isn't it?

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian is very far south...South of Jamaica

[Ivanhater]

well if anyone is interested... 12z FNMOC

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

It's the Nogaps but similar to the 12z Nogaps

its the 12z nogaps.. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

I meant GFS