ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Nothing to 97L (photo below) but a peanut cluster of thunderstorms and a large SAL swirl - and 98L is going fishing, so...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

Have a good weekend, everyone!

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

Nothing to 97L (photo below) but a peanut cluster of thunderstorms and a large SAL swirl - and 98L is going fishing, so...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

Have a good weekend, everyone!

Frank

Yep, it's doing exactly what it suppose to right now...Wait until later this weekend, and it will be a
different ballgame...

[Aric Dunn]

If convection can hold like this or increase today and not die... tomorrow will be the day for development.

[northjaxpro]

Aric, if, and it is a BIG IF, 97L's convection sustains as you mentioned, then it may be a sign it is beginning to get its act together. I personally did not expect this to happen until at least Sunday at the earliest. If 97L begins to organize at this stage, then I think the system's chances of missing the Caribbean islands to the north would increase. A stronger, organized system I think will have 97L gain a bit latitude in time. Plus, unfortunately, if 97L is organizing quicker, then the probabilities of a impact all along the SE U.S. Coast will also increase significantly.

Again, this is not an official forecast, just an opinion and observations from a Storm2K member.

Still a long time to watch this unfold folks. We all just need to stay vigilant that's for sure!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, if, and it is a BIG IF, 97L's convection sustains as you mentioned, then it may be a sign it is beginning to get its act together. I personally did not expect this to happen until at least Sunday at the earliest. If 97L begins to organize at this stage, then I think the system's chances of missing the Caribbean islands to the north would increase. A stronger, organized system I think will have 97L gain a bit latitude in time. Plus, unfortunately, if 97L is organizing quicker, then the probabilities of a impact all along the SE U.S. Coast will also increase significantly.

Again, this is not an official forecast, just an opinion and observations from a Storm2K member.

Still a long time to watch this unfold folks. We all just need to stay vigilant that's for sure!

yeah, the convection pattern is still a little to pop corn like but now able to maintain at least some organization to where its developing..

[Gustywind]

Given the latest form NRL: 1415 UTC
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

Has lot another one 1mb, down to 1006 mb and located more west...
20110819.1415.97LINVEST.25kts-1006mb-135N-473W
20110819.1015.97LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-135N-442W.

[Aric Dunn]

It past nearly right over this buoy last night... pretty low pressure already..

next buoy it should go over in the next 6 hours. if it updates http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0

then late tonight ...http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[ozonepete]

Whoa... This has done a sudden convective spike and has outflow cirrus developing. The change in just the last hour or two is pretty impressive.

[KWT]

Gotta admit it does look abit more solid then it did yesterday. Seems like its trying to wrap itself up to me...

[gatorcane]

Gotta admit it does look abit more solid then it did yesterday. Seems like its trying to wrap itself up to me...

Yep, should be 50% the next TWO....compared to 24 hours ago, its much better organized. Question is will it continue to move 280, gain even more lattitude as is deepends, or will it feel the ridge more and dive some WSW as some of the models prog.

Looks like it is really trying to get its act together now, as expected once it got to 55W....

[RL3AO]

Fun fact. If TD 8, 97L and 98L become tropical storms by Sunday, which is possible but probably unlikely, we will have beat 2005 and set a record for the earliest forming 10th storm of the season.

Obviously the strength of storms doesn't compare to 2005 though.

[Ivanhater]

Curren GFS, Euro and Cmc are not that excited about this system until after it is in the Caribbean.

[Nimbus]

Well it passed 50W without any major convective burst and its still pretty dry all the way to the islands so I guess the models shift west closer to Jamaica then?

[Sanibel]

Good entrainment of the atmosphere now. Probably bears watching.

[ozonepete]

Well it passed 50W without any major convective burst and its still pretty dry all the way to the islands so I guess the models shift west closer to Jamaica then?

IMHO, it's having a pretty big convective burst right now...

[cycloneye]

Well it passed 50W without any major convective burst and its still pretty dry all the way to the islands so I guess the models shift west closer to Jamaica then?

Is not as dry as before. And convection has increased in the past few hours.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, cyclone, and this CIMSS chart shows mid-level dry air is staying just outside the envelope now.

[cycloneye]

Starting on Saturday afternoon the first mission.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191555
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT FRI 19 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-080

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 20/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
       C. 20/1615Z
       D. 15.3N 57.5W
       E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

        OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT
          AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.
       B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR THE
          SAME SYSTEM AT 22/0000Z.



[ozonepete]

Here's another CIMSS chart of mid-level moisture. Looks pretty decent now - moistening up nicely.

[KWT]

Yeah ,as long as mid-upper shear remains low that dry air isn't going to be too much of a problem, now if it does increase then we could have more of an issue.