ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricanehink]

Here's an interesting note. Seeing as this is the one that's expected to take the longest to develop, I'll put this here. If 8L becomes Harvey (as expected), 98L becomes Irene today or tomorrow (quite possible), and this becomes Jose before Monday, then this season will be the earliest to have produced 10 named storms. It's unlikely, but hey, we have three good candidates here to beat 2005's record of August 22nd.

[KWT]

Wow that is actually amazing, we are actually very close to 2005 right now in terms of named storms (though the quality has been much worse) that raises confidence of a 18-20NS type season.

[ROCK]

SAL to the north of this with a very broad low..still thinking another day maybe..

[SouthFLTropics]

I must admit the statement "increasingly conducive" is some very strong wording from the NHC. Normally we see something like conditions are expected to become more favorable for some development or something like that. Based on the models I believe the NHC is saying what we already know...This IS a legitimate threat to someone.

SFT

[Adoquín]

a boy or a girl, but a child will be born out of this one. And with the relocation of 8 that just happened to the northeast of old cdnter, it is now pretty much a fact 8 becomes Harvey, so Jose or Irene.

[plasticup]

a question for the board......where are the GFDL and HWRF...and why havent they been run?

They were run at 00z. GFDL keeps this as a wave. HWRF develops this into a strong hurricane that moves wnw north of Hispaniola and through Puerto Rico.

thanks, chris....i find it fascinating to see such a stark contrast in intensity between the two state of the art intensity specific models. as i understand it, both are using gfs inputs(and obviously, much else) and producing such dramatically different results. chris, do you see anything that jumps out at you that would yield these results. and IMHO, i would side with slower development based on the size of the envelope and the continuing presence of dry air in all quadrants....rich

It's not that the GFDL doesn't like the storm's long-run chances. In the 00z runs it fails to initialize the system well and loses track of it in just a few hours before conditions improve. Soon the model will have more data to work with and will grasp the system better. Then we'll see what it makes of the conditions ahead.

Here's an interesting note. Seeing as this is the one that's expected to take the longest to develop, I'll put this here. If 8L becomes Harvey (as expected), 98L becomes Irene today or tomorrow (quite possible), and this becomes Jose before Monday, then this season will be the earliest to have produced 10 named storms. It's unlikely, but hey, we have three good candidates here to beat 2005's record of August 22nd.

Wow, now that's a thought.
(also, haven't see you since those days at the wiki! I still drop by there from time to time, but usually edit anon these days)

[KWT]

I must admit the statement "increasingly conducive" is some very strong wording from the NHC. Normally we see something like conditions are expected to become more favorable for some development or something like that. Based on the models I believe the NHC is saying what we already know...This IS a legitimate threat to someone.

SFT

Yeah thats because the models nearly without exception (bar the GFDL which nearly always doesn't do great on its 1st run for some reason, maybe data?) develop this and most develop it quite strongly at that.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Best Track
AL, 97, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 135N, 473W, 25, 1006, DB

[KWT]

Should start to pick up some more latitude from tmoorrow as it starts to feel less of the upper high, a 280 track looks about right from then on compared with broadly a 270/265 motion of the last 12hrs.

[Adoquín]

the circulation goes the entire length of the Lesser Antilles. Still has not reached 50W and already convection popping up. Can anyone get a close up of the oceanic heat increases in the water in front of it, and more importantly what is that SAL going to do in the next day or so? Would not a wnw bound and vigorous 98 interrupt the SAL in favor of 97?

[maxx9512]

the circulation goes the entire length of the Lesser Antilles. Still has not reached 50W and already convection popping up. Can anyone get a close up of the oceanic heat increases in the water in front of it, and more importantly what is that SAL going to do in the next day or so? Would not a wnw bound and vigorous 98 interrupt the SAL in favor of 97?

Here you go.

[img

Uploaded with ImageShack.us][/img]

[cycloneye]

the circulation goes the entire length of the Lesser Antilles. Still has not reached 50W and already convection popping up. Can anyone get a close up of the oceanic heat increases in the water in front of it, and more importantly what is that SAL going to do in the next day or so? Would not a wnw bound and vigorous 98 interrupt the SAL in favor of 97?

The heat content increases bigtime after 50W.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the convection is really beginning to build and this system is starting to get it's act together. I don't see the due west movement it's a general N of W movement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[RL3AO]

B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 20/1800Z NEAR
15.0N 53.0W

Already at 50W so it will be much further west then 53 by 18z tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

IMO, the convection is really beginning to build and this system is starting to get it's act together. I don't see the due west movement it's a general N of W movement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I generally agree with you about this. I also think it is moving a bit north of due west at the current time.

[gatorcane]

Should start to pick up some more latitude from tmoorrow as it starts to feel less of the upper high, a 280 track looks about right from then on compared with broadly a 270/265 motion of the last 12hrs.

yeah, then models are going to shift right to maybe north of Hispaniola since many of them show a W to WSW dip for the next couple of days.

[CrazyC83]

It would be spooky if the system tracked right through the Yucatan Channel missing islands - it is practically a bomb factory there.

[Blown Away]

It would be spooky if the system tracked right through the Yucatan Channel missing islands - it is practically a bomb factory there.

Yeah, just N or S of the big islands = epic storm IMO.

[KWT]

Should start to pick up some more latitude from tmoorrow as it starts to feel less of the upper high, a 280 track looks about right from then on compared with broadly a 270/265 motion of the last 12hrs.

yeah, then models are going to shift right to maybe north of Hispaniola since many of them show a W to WSW dip for the next couple of days.

I doubt it goes north of Hispaniola, the ECM which is further north then the other models in the short term still hits the island and has done for most of its last 6 runs.

I think odds are increasing this slams into hispaniola as a weak TS...so may briefly lose it afterwards before it hits some probably very favourable conditions.

[northjaxpro]

Also, I am sort of wondering what type of impact the large ULL north of 97L will have on 97L in the short term. It seems to me that the ULL looks a bit stronger than what the models initailly had depicted, although it appears it is drifting north very slowly.

I am thinking that the ULL may slightly "tug" 97L a bit north of west as well in the short term (24-48 hrs). Just an observation.