ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 191158
AF302 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20110819
114830 1504N 08221W 8431 01558 0083 +177 +140 182012 012 006 000 00
114900 1505N 08223W 8433 01560 0088 +175 +148 200013 013 008 001 00
114930 1506N 08224W 8429 01568 0088 +178 +138 211011 011 009 001 00
115000 1506N 08226W 8426 01571 0093 +170 +148 203011 012 010 001 00
115030 1507N 08227W 8432 01568 0093 +173 +145 218011 012 013 000 00
115100 1508N 08229W 8429 01567 0088 +175 +140 215013 014 010 001 00
115130 1508N 08230W 8430 01563 0087 +175 +140 207014 015 011 000 00
115200 1509N 08232W 8432 01563 0090 +171 +146 217013 014 007 001 00
115230 1510N 08233W 8429 01562 0085 +170 +148 223013 013 011 001 00
115300 1510N 08235W 8432 01562 0088 +172 +146 229013 013 010 001 00
115330 1511N 08236W 8433 01562 0092 +170 +146 230011 013 011 001 00
115400 1512N 08238W 8429 01572 0096 +170 +148 229011 011 012 000 00
115430 1513N 08239W 8431 01560 0089 +167 +150 234012 012 011 001 00
115500 1513N 08241W 8433 01561 0093 +165 +152 233013 013 015 000 00
115530 1514N 08242W 8429 01567 0095 +165 +147 240013 014 013 000 03
115600 1515N 08244W 8429 01568 0096 +166 +140 238014 015 016 000 00
115630 1516N 08245W 8432 01564 0095 +169 +142 242016 016 020 000 00
115700 1517N 08246W 8432 01564 0094 +169 +138 241018 019 024 002 00
115730 1518N 08247W 8429 01566 0091 +169 +155 244018 020 032 006 00
115800 1519N 08249W 8437 01557 0095 +159 //// 222015 018 041 012 05
$$
;

[HurrMark]

Since I don't see an advisory thread...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE HONDURAN COAST...HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO ARRIVE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[HurrMark]

It is probably 30 or so miles from the coast now...should make landfall by 10-11 AM. Will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters say...convection is blossoming...but if the center is where NHC places it, it is fairly lopsided...

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 191208
AF302 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20110819
115830 1520N 08250W 8443 01547 //// +138 //// 232015 018 051 033 05
115900 1521N 08251W 8425 01562 //// +124 //// 266015 016 050 024 05
115930 1522N 08253W 8436 01553 0109 +136 //// 264017 018 038 016 01
120000 1523N 08254W 8432 01560 0104 +142 //// 265016 017 035 014 01
120030 1524N 08255W 8427 01564 0094 +161 +159 259014 014 029 007 03
120100 1525N 08256W 8430 01561 0089 +165 +158 256014 015 023 005 03
120130 1527N 08257W 8427 01563 0091 +162 //// 254013 014 028 005 01
120200 1528N 08257W 8432 01558 0089 +165 //// 254012 012 024 003 01
120230 1530N 08258W 8430 01561 0090 +162 //// 255012 013 022 001 01
120300 1531N 08258W 8432 01560 0089 +163 //// 257013 014 021 001 01
120330 1533N 08259W 8432 01557 0085 +164 //// 257014 014 020 000 05
120400 1534N 08259W 8430 01558 0087 +162 //// 248014 016 018 003 01
120430 1536N 08300W 8430 01558 0085 +165 +165 245013 014 022 002 00
120500 1538N 08300W 8430 01555 0081 +166 +161 247012 012 019 001 03
120530 1539N 08301W 8430 01554 0080 +165 +158 239011 012 018 000 03
120600 1541N 08301W 8431 01550 0075 +166 +157 235013 014 018 000 00
120630 1542N 08302W 8430 01547 0073 +170 +156 235015 016 019 000 03
120700 1544N 08303W 8429 01546 0070 +170 +155 238017 017 022 001 00
120730 1545N 08304W 8428 01545 0067 +167 +156 237017 018 024 001 00
120800 1546N 08305W 8426 01544 0067 +164 +162 225018 020 023 001 00
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through ob 26:

I can't stay long, maybe just one more image.

[clfenwi]

Through the center, from southeast to northwest

URNT15 KNHC 191218
AF302 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20110819
120830 1548N 08306W 8432 01536 0065 +161 //// 222017 020 024 000 01
120900 1549N 08307W 8429 01537 0060 +163 //// 228013 014 023 001 01
120930 1550N 08308W 8430 01533 0055 +170 //// 227009 010 026 000 05
121000 1552N 08309W 8433 01530 0054 +169 //// 225009 010 028 001 05
121030 1553N 08310W 8432 01532 0052 +170 //// 231010 010 029 000 01
121100 1554N 08312W 8430 01530 0052 +170 //// 224011 011 029 000 01
121130 1555N 08313W 8431 01529 0050 +170 //// 218009 010 029 000 05
121200 1557N 08314W 8433 01527 0047 +171 //// 222009 010 031 001 05
121230 1558N 08315W 8428 01530 0041 +179 +172 213007 007 031 001 03
121300 1558N 08317W 8432 01526 0039 +181 +170 239004 005 027 000 03
121330 1600N 08318W 8430 01527 0038 +185 +168 323002 003 025 000 00
121400 1601N 08319W 8429 01527 0037 +184 +167 044005 008 024 002 00
121430 1602N 08321W 8429 01526 0035 +184 +168 040014 015 020 001 00
121500 1603N 08322W 8428 01528 0039 +179 +175 041015 015 018 000 00
121530 1604N 08323W 8429 01529 0040 +181 +177 046015 015 019 000 00
121600 1605N 08324W 8428 01532 0041 +183 +176 052016 018 028 002 03
121630 1606N 08326W 8431 01533 0048 +178 +178 050018 019 028 001 00
121700 1607N 08327W 8432 01535 0053 +175 //// 054019 020 028 000 01
121730 1609N 08328W 8432 01535 0057 +174 //// 059019 020 027 000 05
121800 1610N 08329W 8430 01540 0062 +168 //// 056020 020 028 000 01

[dwsqos2]

I wish the plane were flying at lower altitude; 850 mb seems high for a weak system. The 850 mb center appears to be around 16N. Pressure could be a bit lower as well 1003-1004 if you buy the extraps.

EDIT-Because by and buy are different words.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 27:

Satellite imagery as of 11:45Z. (7:45AM EDT) I'll post one more image.

[wxman57]

Recon just found the center at 16.0N/83.3W. About 25 miles north of where NHC had estimated.

[KWT]

Abit north then Wxman57, should mean it brushes the coast rather then goes inland and probably really increases the chances this becomes Harvey.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 28:

Final image for sure this time, I have to go.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 191228
AF302 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20110819
121830 1611N 08330W 8430 01540 0063 +170 //// 062022 023 028 003 01
121900 1612N 08332W 8430 01541 0067 +161 //// 062021 022 032 006 01
121930 1613N 08333W 8424 01545 //// +151 //// 070025 031 040 017 05
122000 1615N 08334W 8437 01535 //// +145 //// 066027 028 044 029 05
122030 1616N 08335W 8435 01538 //// +144 //// 065027 028 048 034 01
122100 1617N 08337W 8434 01543 //// +140 //// 062030 032 048 030 05
122130 1618N 08338W 8426 01552 //// +148 //// 059030 031 034 014 05
122200 1620N 08339W 8434 01546 //// +149 //// 057031 031 030 004 01
122230 1621N 08340W 8430 01552 0080 +160 //// 059027 029 027 002 01
122300 1622N 08342W 8433 01550 0081 +161 //// 062028 029 025 001 01
122330 1623N 08343W 8433 01550 0081 +160 //// 063026 027 026 000 05
122400 1624N 08344W 8430 01554 0082 +162 //// 061027 028 029 005 01
122430 1626N 08345W 8418 01567 0087 +146 //// 065027 032 049 020 05
122500 1627N 08347W 8433 01551 //// +142 //// 052028 029 045 029 05
122530 1628N 08348W 8430 01561 //// +141 //// 052030 031 045 021 05
122600 1629N 08349W 8425 01561 0088 +155 //// 051029 030 034 005 01
122630 1630N 08350W 8432 01556 0086 +165 +165 047028 029 033 003 03
122700 1631N 08352W 8429 01558 0085 +165 //// 043028 030 029 002 01
122730 1633N 08353W 8433 01556 0083 +166 //// 049029 030 031 001 05
122800 1634N 08354W 8429 01558 0086 +165 +163 051027 029 030 003 03

[HurrMark]

Recon just found the center at 16.0N/83.3W. About 25 miles north of where NHC had estimated.

That could be really big in terms of it becoming Harvey...it would have a greater shot now...unless it dips south, it will not go inland until Belize since the coastline doesn't cross 16N.

[clfenwi]

URNT12 KNHC 191232
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 19/12:13:30Z
B. 15 deg 59 min N
083 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1457 m
D. 30 kt
E. 144 deg 51 nm
F. 221 deg 20 kt
G. 136 deg 17 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 16 C / 1525 m
J. 18 C / 1521 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0308A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 12:21:00Z
;

[HurrMark]

Update from NHC that confirms wxman57's info:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
835 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM EDT...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[KWT]

That will probably cause the NHC to be a touch more agressive and confident of thier forecast I'd imagine.

[Adoquín]

that pretty much guarantees this will be over bath water all the way to Belize City.

[dwsqos2]

Since I feel like raining on the warm water parade, it could still have it's inflow disrupted by the terrain of Honduras.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 191238
AF302 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20110819
122830 1635N 08355W 8430 01557 0084 +167 +161 052027 028 031 003 00
122900 1636N 08356W 8430 01558 0084 +167 +167 054029 029 030 004 03
122930 1637N 08358W 8430 01558 0086 +165 //// 054028 029 033 003 01
123000 1639N 08359W 8432 01560 0093 +153 //// 056026 027 032 006 01
123030 1640N 08400W 8436 01554 0094 +155 //// 057029 030 033 006 01
123100 1641N 08401W 8434 01558 0094 +156 //// 054028 029 036 009 01
123130 1642N 08403W 8426 01565 0098 +148 //// 062031 032 035 014 01
123200 1643N 08404W 8429 01563 0097 +150 //// 062030 031 037 015 05
123230 1645N 08405W 8428 01563 0094 +158 //// 062030 031 032 005 01
123300 1646N 08406W 8432 01561 0094 +160 //// 062030 031 029 003 01
123330 1647N 08408W 8432 01562 0094 +163 +158 059030 030 029 002 00
123400 1648N 08409W 8432 01563 0100 +158 +156 056028 029 026 003 00
123430 1649N 08410W 8430 01566 0103 +153 //// 056028 029 027 004 01
123500 1651N 08411W 8429 01567 0103 +154 //// 057027 028 028 002 05
123530 1651N 08413W 8430 01567 0099 +158 //// 053027 029 /// /// 05
123600 1650N 08414W 8438 01560 //// +151 //// 048027 028 /// /// 05
123630 1648N 08413W 8447 01549 0102 +152 //// 050028 030 032 007 05
123700 1647N 08413W 8434 01562 0103 +153 //// 049029 030 038 013 05
123730 1645N 08413W 8432 01565 0106 +141 //// 050027 029 040 016 05
123800 1643N 08413W 8425 01572 //// +140 //// 048027 028 037 016 05
$$
;

[Adoquín]

actually, because the center will remain over water, the Honduras mountains to the south and the storm coming from the east, the effect in past similar experiences will be to increase vorticity...so dont count on disruption. Track similar to Fifi, different intensities so far