ATL: IRENE - Models

#181 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:43 pm

Into the Caribbean....you smelling something Rock?

#182 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:44 pm

rapidly intensifying cane just south of isle of youth at 186 hrs per 12z Euro...

#183 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:46 pm

I am supposed to go to my high school 10 year reunion the weekend of the 26/27th. If this thing is even possible heading my way then sorry, I'd much rather play in a hurricane. :lol:

Just hope it is nothing too strong or I may be forced to evacuate and go anyway, it is in Beaumont, TX and I don't think I am too worried about this making it that far West, not yet...

#184 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:46 pm

this looks destined to clip western cuba and into the central gulf between nola and the panhandle looking at the synoptics...well find out shortly

#185 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:47 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I am supposed to go to my high school 10 year reunion the weekend of the 26/27th. If this thing is even possible heading my way then sorry, I'd much rather play in a hurricane. Just hope it is nothing too strong or I may be forced to evacuate and go anyway, it is in Beaumont, TX and I don't think I am too worried about this making it that far West, not yet...

I think that the ridge over TX will still be a bit strong to allow it to track as far west as SE LA.

#186 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:47 pm

Oh crap

#187 Postby **Tireman4** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:47 pm

[quote="BigB0882"]I am supposed to go to my high school 10 year reunion the weekend of the 26/27th.

OT- 10 Years..sheesh, I have my 30 right around the corner....sigh...Back to normal programming..

#188 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:48 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Oh crap

192 hours is a long way out. It will likely flip-flop....

#189 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:48 pm

rapidly intensifying just south of western Cuba....looks like a more NW turn is in store looking at he synoptics...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

#190 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:49 pm

Ivan track? :wink:

ROCK · #191 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I am supposed to go to my high school 10 year reunion the weekend of the 26/27th. If this thing is even possible heading my way then sorry, I'd much rather play in a hurricane. Just hope it is nothing too strong or I may be forced to evacuate and go anyway, it is in Beaumont, TX and I don't think I am too worried about this making it that far West, not yet...

I think that the ridge over TX will still be a bit strong to allow it to track as far west as SE LA.

I have doubts because I believe that the ridge over Texas will move west in the next 10 days....

Scorpion · #192 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Oh crap

192 hours is a long way out. It will likely flip-flop....

Seriously.. it will flip again to north of the islands 00z. Silly to get bent out of shape over long range runs

#193 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think that the ridge over TX will still be a bit strong to allow it to track as far west as SE LA.

Models seem to be trending more S and W, SE LA seems possible based on the trends?

#194 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:50 pm

Well from I can gather, Hispaniola will be the key. Seems like a disrupted 97L gets shoved more west, and a non-disrupted (missing just east of Hispaniola) is more of an E coast threat.

ROCK · #195 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Into the Caribbean....you smelling something Rock?

yeah I starting smelling it when the GFS ensembles came out.... :lol:

#196 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:50 pm

Ivan, when do the 12z ecm ensembles roll in...

#197 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I am supposed to go to my high school 10 year reunion the weekend of the 26/27th. If this thing is even possible heading my way then sorry, I'd much rather play in a hurricane. Just hope it is nothing too strong or I may be forced to evacuate and go anyway, it is in Beaumont, TX and I don't think I am too worried about this making it that far West, not yet...

I think that the ridge over TX will still be a bit strong to allow it to track as far west as SE LA.

Yeah, wxman57, that is a big factor. Just how much that death ridge will break down by this time next week? If enough of that ridge can weaken and slide westward, then the door could be opened for impacts from at least the Central Gulf Coast and areas east and south. Lots of variables still out there of course.

#198 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:51 pm

Vortex wrote:Ivan, when do the 12z ecm ensembles roll in...

Bout 3:30-45 ish

southerngale · #199 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:52 pm

Scorpion wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Oh crap

192 hours is a long way out. It will likely flip-flop....

Seriously.. it will flip again to north of the islands 00z. Silly to get bent out of shape over long range runs

Nobody is getting bent out of shape. We're just watching the model runs come in. This is the model thread, after all.

#200 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:52 pm

216 hours...Major hurricane going through the Yucatan channel

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