ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

We'll never know now if this is a tropical cyclone

[SouthDadeFish]

Why would they leave??

[Aric Dunn]

Well looks like the speculation will continue... recon appears to be having problems... although everything from satellite continues to show a closed LLC near 15.7N 80.3W

[Hurricaneman]

equiptment failure I would presume

[cycloneye]

They can upgrade to TD without recon based on surface obervations.

[SouthDadeFish]

Can they send in another plane?

[Aric Dunn]

They can upgrade to TD without recon based on surface obervations.

yeah. just checked a few and everything indicates a closed low.. except a direct sample on southern side.. the nearest buoy to the south is too far away. But satellite and what obs are there should be enough.

[Hurricaneman]

Can they send in another plane?

they cant without notice, which means you wont see a plane until tomorrow

[ozonepete]

They can upgrade to TD without recon based on surface obervations.

yeah. just checked a few and everything indicates a closed low.. except a direct sample on southern side.. the nearest buoy to the south is too far away. But satellite and what obs are there should be enough.

Plus any new microwave satellite images that come in...

[RL3AO]

I believe when they had problems with Emily(?) they sent a second plane about an hour after the first one landed. I wouldn't rule it out.

[Macrocane]

Maybe the NHC will pull the trigger this afternoon or tonight without RECON, it's too bad when this things happen

[KWT]

I suspect the NHC will decide to upgrade it, whilst there is not 100% evidence it looks good enough now to make a fair assumption that even if its not quite there yet, it'll be there very soon.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon would have crucial in deciding where the presumed LLC is actually located. If it is farther south than we think, it may very well slam into Honduras.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon would have crucial in deciding where the presumed LLC is actually located. If it is farther south than we think, it may very well slam into Honduras.

well it cant below 15 N ..... so at that lat it would make landfall. I have it at 15.5 to 16 which would put the southern part of circ overland.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCED
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[SouthDadeFish]

The wording of the TWO doesn't suggest that this is a borderline TD. Normally they would say something like: satellite images indicate the depression is becoming better organized and a tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow. Although perhaps 80% speaks for itself.

[ozonepete]

Recon would have crucial in deciding where the presumed LLC is actually located. If it is farther south than we think, it may very well slam into Honduras.

well it cant below 15 N ..... so at that lat it would make landfall. I have it at 15.5 to 16 which would put the southern part of circ overland.

And don't forget it has been going more like 280 or 285 degrees. Gained a degree of latitude in the last 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Center is pretty Apparent... low level curvature is becoming quite a bit more pronounced on the western side and inflow has increased.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Florida1118]

The wording of the TWO doesn't suggest that this is a borderline TD. Normally they would say something like: satellite images indicate the depression is becoming better organized and a tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow. Although perhaps 80% speaks for itself.

They already suggested it could be a TC later today at 8am, so if It got better organized since 8am...probalby the same thinking

[SouthDadeFish]

Center is pretty Apparent... low level curvature is becoming quite a bit more pronounced on the western side and inflow has increased.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Looking at that I would put the center at 15.1N, 80.4W