ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

there is clearly no surface circulation

[Extratropical94]

Observation 18:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171806
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 18 20110817
175700 1333N 07513W 9778 00286 0104 +243 -058 108012 013 012 000 03
175730 1333N 07515W 9768 00295 0104 +242 -056 105013 014 012 000 03
175800 1333N 07517W 9774 00289 0103 +245 -055 104013 013 012 000 00
175830 1333N 07518W 9773 00290 0103 +243 -057 104013 013 014 000 00
175900 1332N 07520W 9773 00290 0103 +240 -057 105013 013 012 001 00
175930 1332N 07522W 9773 00290 0103 +240 -056 104013 013 012 000 00
180000 1332N 07524W 9774 00288 0103 +240 -057 102012 012 012 001 00
180030 1332N 07526W 9774 00289 0104 +238 -057 097011 011 012 001 00
180100 1332N 07528W 9774 00289 0103 +241 -055 098011 011 010 001 00
180130 1332N 07530W 9774 00287 0102 +247 -056 105011 011 011 001 00
180200 1332N 07532W 9773 00289 0101 +247 -054 105012 012 013 000 00
180230 1332N 07534W 9773 00289 0102 +245 -053 107012 012 015 000 00
180300 1331N 07536W 9774 00288 0102 +240 -052 106012 012 011 001 00
180330 1331N 07538W 9774 00288 0102 +242 -052 107011 012 010 002 00
180400 1331N 07540W 9774 00287 0102 +241 -052 103010 011 012 001 00
180430 1331N 07542W 9772 00290 0102 +240 -051 100011 011 011 001 00
180500 1331N 07544W 9773 00288 0102 +242 -051 100011 011 008 002 00
180530 1331N 07546W 9772 00288 0102 +241 -051 100010 011 015 000 00
180600 1331N 07548W 9772 00289 0101 +241 -051 103009 010 014 001 00
180630 1331N 07550W 9774 00287 0101 +244 -051 095010 010 015 000 00
$$

[GCANE]

That subsidence directly to the west is killing any kind of ascent and hence limiting any kind of deep convection from firing.

Really need to get some strong mid-level WV into it to start raising the tropopause and get the mid-level PV anomaly to work its way to the surface.

[Frank2]

Recon is close to what should be an LLC, but not finding anything but southeast wind so far. The next report should confirm whether it's an open wave or is developing a weak LLC. I don't think it's there yet, but it should be a TD and/or TS in 24-48 hrs.

Thanks, wxman57 - looks are deceiving (per the current VIS photo)...

Frank

[Extratropical94]

Observation 19:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171816
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 19 20110817
180700 1331N 07552W 9773 00288 0101 +245 -051 094010 011 010 000 00
180730 1330N 07553W 9773 00288 0101 +245 -051 095011 011 009 001 00
180800 1330N 07555W 9772 00289 0101 +245 -052 091012 012 010 001 00
180830 1330N 07557W 9778 00284 0101 +244 -053 097012 013 009 000 03
180900 1330N 07559W 9772 00289 0101 +243 -053 095010 010 011 001 03
180930 1328N 07601W 9772 00289 0101 +241 -051 097009 009 015 001 00
181000 1327N 07602W 9772 00289 0101 +240 -048 092009 009 016 000 00
181030 1326N 07603W 9774 00287 0101 +240 -047 087009 009 013 001 00
181100 1325N 07605W 9774 00287 0101 +242 -051 092010 013 013 002 03
181130 1325N 07607W 9763 00298 0102 +241 -057 092012 012 /// /// 03
181200 1327N 07607W 9747 00312 0102 +241 -057 108012 013 013 000 00
181230 1328N 07608W 9762 00298 0102 +244 -058 109013 014 006 002 03
181300 1329N 07610W 9770 00291 0102 +242 -059 102012 012 012 001 03
181330 1329N 07612W 9767 00295 0103 +242 -052 097012 012 014 001 00
181400 1329N 07614W 9774 00288 0103 +245 -055 096012 012 014 000 00
181430 1330N 07616W 9774 00288 0103 +241 -059 090012 012 013 001 00
181500 1330N 07618W 9774 00288 0103 +242 -058 085012 012 012 001 00
181530 1330N 07620W 9770 00292 0103 +239 -055 077012 012 013 001 00
181600 1330N 07621W 9772 00290 0103 +242 -054 079012 013 011 000 00
181630 1330N 07623W 9774 00288 0103 +242 -053 081014 015 012 001 00
$$

[Extratropical94]

Observation 20:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171827
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 20 20110817
181700 1330N 07625W 9772 00290 0102 +240 -051 078012 013 010 000 00
181730 1330N 07627W 9773 00288 0102 +243 -052 079011 011 008 000 00
181800 1330N 07629W 9773 00288 0101 +244 -052 081011 012 009 000 00
181830 1330N 07631W 9772 00290 0102 +241 -058 080012 013 009 000 00
181900 1330N 07633W 9777 00286 0102 +242 -059 070013 014 007 001 03
181930 1331N 07634W 9757 00302 0101 +243 -061 089013 013 005 002 03
182000 1333N 07633W 9758 00302 0102 +245 -058 093013 013 008 000 00
182030 1335N 07633W 9774 00287 0102 +245 -055 087014 014 007 000 00
182100 1336N 07632W 9779 00283 0102 +242 -053 083013 014 008 000 00
182130 1338N 07631W 9773 00289 0103 +238 -052 092012 012 010 000 00
182200 1339N 07630W 9773 00288 0102 +241 -057 093013 014 009 001 03
182230 1341N 07630W 9771 00290 0102 +241 -061 093014 015 009 000 03
182300 1343N 07630W 9768 00293 0102 +242 -060 098016 017 009 001 00
182330 1345N 07630W 9773 00288 0101 +245 -059 102017 018 013 000 00
182400 1346N 07630W 9775 00286 0102 +240 -056 099017 017 014 000 00
182430 1348N 07630W 9772 00289 0102 +240 -054 100018 018 014 000 00
182500 1350N 07630W 9773 00290 0102 +243 -053 100017 018 016 000 00
182530 1352N 07630W 9770 00291 0103 +235 -051 105015 015 014 001 00
182600 1354N 07630W 9774 00288 0103 +238 -056 101016 016 011 000 00
182630 1356N 07630W 9774 00288 0103 +240 -055 097015 015 010 000 00
$$

[Sanibel]

The Dvorak is deceiving because there's a lot less to it than it looks.

The give-away is the warm tops. Is the Texas High a hurricane suppressor?

[Extratropical94]

Observation 21:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171837
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 21 20110817
182700 1357N 07630W 9772 00290 0103 +235 -053 102014 015 010 000 00
182730 1359N 07630W 9779 00283 0102 +238 -056 103017 018 011 000 00
182800 1401N 07630W 9770 00292 0103 +240 -059 108017 018 013 000 00
182830 1403N 07630W 9775 00287 0103 +240 -061 110016 017 013 001 00
182900 1405N 07630W 9772 00289 0103 +238 -058 112015 015 016 000 00
182930 1407N 07630W 9775 00287 0103 +240 -057 111014 014 011 001 00
183000 1409N 07630W 9774 00288 0102 +243 -057 109015 016 012 000 00
183030 1410N 07630W 9774 00288 0103 +240 -058 110016 016 011 001 00
183100 1412N 07630W 9772 00291 0103 +237 -055 113015 015 009 000 00
183130 1414N 07630W 9775 00287 0103 +237 -058 111013 014 012 001 00
183200 1416N 07630W 9770 00293 0103 +238 -058 101013 014 008 000 00
183230 1418N 07630W 9774 00289 0103 +240 -055 100015 015 010 000 00
183300 1420N 07630W 9774 00287 0102 +240 -053 102015 015 009 000 00
183330 1421N 07630W 9778 00284 0102 +240 -050 102014 015 012 000 00
183400 1423N 07630W 9766 00294 0102 +240 -056 101014 015 012 000 00
183430 1425N 07630W 9779 00281 0100 +240 -058 101015 016 011 000 00
183500 1427N 07630W 9769 00291 0100 +240 -057 105016 016 009 000 00
183530 1429N 07630W 9780 00281 0100 +242 -057 104016 016 010 000 00
183600 1431N 07630W 9769 00291 0100 +240 -057 103015 016 011 000 00
183630 1432N 07630W 9774 00285 0101 +242 -054 099015 016 010 001 00
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Can't stay, just posting one image, through OB 20.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of SSD Dvorak,here is the latest. Up to 2.0/2.0.

17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic

[Extratropical94]

Observation 22:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171847
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 22 20110817
183700 1434N 07630W 9778 00283 0101 +240 -052 100015 015 009 001 00
183730 1436N 07630W 9768 00292 0101 +240 -048 100014 015 010 000 00
183800 1438N 07630W 9777 00284 0100 +240 -054 103015 016 010 001 00
183830 1440N 07630W 9771 00290 0102 +240 -054 098014 015 011 000 00
183900 1442N 07630W 9770 00291 0102 +240 -054 094014 015 010 000 00
183930 1443N 07630W 9778 00284 0102 +240 -055 093015 015 012 001 00
184000 1445N 07630W 9769 00293 0103 +239 -054 091013 014 012 000 00
184030 1447N 07630W 9781 00283 0103 +240 -052 082014 014 011 000 00
184100 1449N 07630W 9768 00295 0103 +239 -050 081013 014 008 001 00
184130 1451N 07630W 9775 00287 0103 +240 -058 083013 014 013 000 00
184200 1452N 07630W 9775 00287 0103 +240 -060 086014 015 013 000 00
184230 1454N 07630W 9772 00291 0103 +240 -057 088014 015 014 000 00
184300 1456N 07630W 9776 00287 0104 +240 -054 087015 015 013 001 00
184330 1458N 07630W 9771 00293 0104 +240 -052 083015 016 013 000 00
184400 1500N 07630W 9774 00289 0104 +238 -049 081015 016 012 000 00
184430 1501N 07630W 9776 00287 0104 +237 -055 081015 017 014 000 00
184500 1503N 07630W 9766 00296 0104 +240 -058 087016 017 010 001 00
184530 1505N 07630W 9780 00284 0104 +240 -058 085016 016 011 001 00
184600 1507N 07630W 9768 00294 0104 +238 -056 084015 016 012 001 00
184630 1509N 07630W 9778 00285 0104 +237 -055 083015 015 012 000 00
$$

[Caribwxgirl]

Hi,

I'm new here and really am not very weather savvy so please excuse me if I ask any "silly" questions Can you say if given how this system looks now Jamaica will be in very strong winds and extremely heavy rains by today or tomorrow? Since that's my neck of the woods I am just wondering...also is there any chance do you think that it may be significantly more than a TW when it gets closer to us?

Thank you

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Had time to do another image. Through OB 22.

[Caribwxgirl]

Had time to do another image. Through OB 22.

Hi newbie here can you explain this image to me please

[ozonepete]

Hi,

I'm new here and really am not very weather savvy so please excuse me if I ask any "silly" questions Can you say if given how this system looks now Jamaica will be in very strong winds and extremely heavy rains by today or tomorrow? Since that's my neck of the woods I am just wondering...also is there any chance do you think that it may be significantly more than a TW when it gets closer to us?

Thank you

Hi there and welcome! Right now it looks like this is still developing VERY slowly, it's moving quite fast, and will pass well south of you. It probably won't even make depression or TS until tomorrow sometime, when it will be moving away from you. That means you should have rain squalls tonight and tomorrow with some strong wind gusts possible, but nothing that strong. But of course in your area you always have to worry about heavy rain squalls in the mountainous areas causing mud slides so you have to be watchful of the occasional heavy showers. But overall it doesn't seem you will get anything too bad from it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 23:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171856
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 23 20110817
184700 1510N 07630W 9772 00293 0105 +236 -052 082018 018 012 000 00
184730 1512N 07630W 9777 00287 0105 +237 -052 080017 018 013 000 00
184800 1514N 07630W 9769 00295 0106 +235 -055 077015 016 011 002 00
184830 1516N 07630W 9776 00288 0106 +235 -055 078015 016 013 000 00
184900 1517N 07630W 9771 00293 0106 +236 -056 077017 018 014 001 00
184930 1519N 07630W 9778 00285 0106 +235 -056 075015 016 014 001 00
185000 1521N 07630W 9768 00295 0106 +234 -055 081016 017 013 001 00
185030 1523N 07630W 9776 00287 0105 +235 -054 076015 015 009 001 00
185100 1525N 07630W 9771 00291 0104 +236 -059 076017 018 012 001 00
185130 1526N 07630W 9774 00288 0103 +239 -060 073018 018 012 000 00
185200 1528N 07630W 9774 00289 0104 +240 -060 075018 019 013 001 00
185230 1530N 07630W 9773 00290 0104 +238 -060 077017 018 017 000 00
185300 1532N 07630W 9773 00290 0105 +235 -059 073017 017 015 000 00
185330 1533N 07630W 9773 00291 0106 +235 -057 070018 018 016 001 00
185400 1535N 07630W 9774 00289 0105 +235 -055 070018 019 018 000 00
185430 1537N 07630W 9774 00289 0106 +235 -055 068020 020 020 000 00
185500 1537N 07630W 9774 00289 0106 +234 -061 066021 022 019 000 00
185530 1540N 07630W 9773 00290 0106 +234 -061 067022 023 020 001 00
185600 1542N 07630W 9773 00290 0106 +234 -061 070022 023 021 000 00
185630 1544N 07630W 9772 00291 0106 +235 -059 073022 022 018 001 00
$$

[Portastorm]

Welcome Caribwxgirl!

Please keep in mind that we welcome any and all questions here on Storm 2K. We try to be a forum where persons of any type of weather knowledge can gain more.

And I would concur with ozonepete's thoughts on your weather.

[Caribwxgirl]

Hi,

I'm new here and really am not very weather savvy so please excuse me if I ask any "silly" questions Can you say if given how this system looks now Jamaica will be in very strong winds and extremely heavy rains by today or tomorrow? Since that's my neck of the woods I am just wondering...also is there any chance do you think that it may be significantly more than a TW when it gets closer to us?

Thank you

Hi there and welcome! Right now it looks like this is still developing VERY slowly, it's moving quite fast, and will pass well south of you. It probably won't even make depression or TS until tomorrow sometime, when it will be moving away from you. That means you should have rain squalls tonight and tomorrow with some strong wind gusts possible, but nothing that strong. But of course in your area you always have to worry about heavy rain squalls in the mountainous areas causing mud slides so you have to be watchful of the occasional heavy showers. But overall it doesn't seem you will get anything too bad from it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks Phil...and you are right its the landslides that really get us most of the time even when we hear the system is not going to be near to us, like Emily for instance we got a good bit of rain lightning and thunder even though it wasn't supposed to affect us. Just last year and the year before we had similar forecasts and ended up with countless flood related damages.

[northjaxpro]

Welcome Caribwxgirl to Storm2K!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Had time to do another image. Through OB 22.

Hi newbie here can you explain this image to me please

The track line and red Low icon is from National Hurricane Center best track data that tracks invests. The "L" was the position as of 2PM EDT. The line with the wind barbs along it is the path of a hurricane hunter reconnaissance plane. Every little wind barb occurs every 30 seconds for this current mission. The wind noted is flight level wind, which for this mission is up about 1,000 feet. The wind barbs indicate the wind speed, which is color coded and then also the direction of the wind. The winds are primarily easterly (coming from the east, heading from right to left in the image). If this was developing, you would see some west winds (coming from the west, heading from left to right in the image, which we are not seeing yet) in the lower part of the image.

(Edited to change the noted word from east to west. Woops.)