ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Frank2]

As others said, perhaps an MLC forming and looks much better organized than 24 hours ago - glad it's moving quickly and about 24 hours or so from land, otherwise it might have a chance at being more than a TD or TS...

We'll see what the next TWO has to say...

[Dave]

[Extratropical94]

Observation 13:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171716
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 13 20110817
170700 1506N 07309W 9751 00331 0130 +232 -224 102016 017 /// /// 03
170730 1505N 07310W 9778 00264 0082 +230 -217 097017 018 /// /// 03
170800 1504N 07312W 9777 00314 0131 +226 -212 098018 018 /// /// 03
170830 1504N 07313W 9770 00323 0141 +223 -207 099018 018 /// /// 03
170900 1504N 07315W 9769 00324 0140 +229 -202 096017 018 /// /// 03
170930 1503N 07317W 9770 00323 0140 +230 -198 099018 019 /// /// 03
171000 1503N 07319W 9770 00322 0140 +230 -192 101019 020 /// /// 03
171030 1503N 07320W 9772 00322 0140 +231 -185 110021 022 /// /// 03
171100 1502N 07322W 9774 00319 0140 +234 -156 112022 023 /// /// 03
171130 1502N 07324W 9768 00325 0138 +236 -125 113025 026 /// /// 03
171200 1502N 07325W 9773 00319 0137 +237 -118 115027 028 /// /// 03
171230 1501N 07327W 9770 00322 0138 +240 -109 115026 028 /// /// 03
171300 1501N 07329W 9768 00323 0137 +241 -104 112026 026 /// /// 03
171330 1501N 07331W 9773 00319 0137 +241 -103 116025 025 /// /// 03
171400 1500N 07332W 9770 00320 0137 +239 -099 118023 024 /// /// 03
171430 1500N 07334W 9770 00320 0136 +240 -095 118020 021 /// /// 03
171500 1459N 07336W 9772 00319 0137 +236 -093 115019 019 /// /// 03
171530 1459N 07338W 9772 00319 0137 +231 -092 114018 018 /// /// 03
171600 1459N 07339W 9769 00322 0137 +230 -089 114015 016 /// /// 03
171630 1458N 07341W 9770 00320 0137 +230 -086 114016 016 /// /// 03
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

Why is SFMR not on yet?

[clfenwi]

Why is SFMR not on yet?

They are still at cruising (i.e. high) altitude. They haven't yet descended to an altitude where the SFMR would be usable. Should be doing so within the next half hour.

Belay my last. I misread the observations. They are at operational altitude.

With that said, the only guess I have is the admittedly obvious that the SFMR is not functioning. Have to do things the old-fashioned way today. Party like it's 1999.

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

Yes they have descended....

[Extratropical94]

Observation 14, winds should already come from S-SW if we had a LLC:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171726
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 14 20110817
171700 1458N 07343W 9770 00319 0136 +227 -085 105017 017 /// /// 03
171730 1458N 07344W 9771 00318 0136 +227 -085 105016 017 /// /// 03
171800 1457N 07346W 9768 00320 0136 +225 -085 107015 016 /// /// 03
171830 1457N 07348W 9771 00318 0135 +229 -084 107015 015 /// /// 03
171900 1457N 07349W 9771 00317 0135 +225 -083 099016 017 /// /// 03
171930 1456N 07351W 9773 00314 0134 +225 -083 100016 016 /// /// 03
172000 1456N 07353W 9774 00313 0133 +226 -080 102016 016 /// /// 03
172030 1456N 07354W 9769 00318 0133 +230 -080 106016 017 /// /// 03
172100 1455N 07356W 9773 00314 0134 +230 -080 111016 016 /// /// 03
172130 1455N 07358W 9771 00317 0134 +230 -082 115016 017 /// /// 03
172200 1455N 07359W 9772 00315 0134 +230 -082 118016 017 /// /// 03
172230 1454N 07401W 9770 00317 0133 +230 -083 117017 018 /// /// 03
172300 1454N 07403W 9771 00315 0133 +230 -081 115018 019 /// /// 03
172330 1454N 07404W 9769 00318 0133 +230 -081 116019 019 /// /// 03
172400 1453N 07406W 9765 00319 0133 +228 -081 121017 019 /// /// 03
172430 1452N 07407W 9778 00309 0133 +232 -081 122016 017 /// /// 03
172500 1450N 07408W 9772 00317 0136 +230 -081 128015 015 /// /// 03
172530 1449N 07408W 9772 00318 0136 +230 -077 130015 015 /// /// 03
172600 1448N 07409W 9772 00317 0136 +230 -077 128015 015 /// /// 03
172630 1447N 07410W 9769 00322 0138 +230 -078 132015 015 /// /// 03
$$

[xironman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv.jpg
looks like a little drier air in front of 93L may tend to slow development for the time being?.......please correct me if im wrong.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is battling some dry air, like Masters said that is why it looked like a doughnut. But there is very little shear to make more intrude and it is moistening its environment. I think forward speed is the big inhibitor now.

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

40%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Extratropical94]

Observation 15:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171736
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 15 20110817
172700 1445N 07411W 9772 00315 0134 +230 -080 134014 015 /// /// 03
172730 1444N 07412W 9769 00317 0131 +230 -079 133014 014 /// /// 03
172800 1443N 07412W 9768 00318 0132 +230 -080 133013 013 /// /// 03
172830 1441N 07413W 9772 00314 0132 +231 -075 131013 014 /// /// 03
172900 1440N 07414W 9773 00314 0132 +232 -078 129014 014 /// /// 03
172930 1439N 07415W 9768 00319 0132 +230 -082 130014 014 /// /// 03
173000 1438N 07417W 9770 00315 0132 +230 -083 130014 014 /// /// 03
173030 1437N 07418W 9773 00314 0132 +230 -084 131013 013 /// /// 03
173100 1435N 07419W 9771 00315 0132 +230 -088 131013 014 /// /// 03
173130 1434N 07420W 9768 00318 0133 +227 -086 131012 013 /// /// 03
173200 1433N 07421W 9778 00309 0132 +229 -083 132013 013 /// /// 03
173230 1432N 07422W 9772 00313 0130 +228 -082 128013 013 /// /// 03
173300 1431N 07423W 9765 00307 0122 +227 -085 129013 014 /// /// 03
173330 1430N 07424W 9774 00291 0111 +230 -086 131014 014 /// /// 03
173400 1428N 07425W 9773 00293 0108 +228 -083 132013 014 /// /// 03
173430 1427N 07426W 9767 00297 0107 +229 -082 131013 013 /// /// 03
173500 1426N 07427W 9768 00297 0107 +230 -081 133014 014 /// /// 03
173530 1425N 07428W 9773 00292 0107 +232 -082 127013 014 /// /// 03
173600 1424N 07429W 9773 00291 0106 +235 -085 122013 013 /// /// 03
173630 1422N 07430W 9773 00292 0106 +235 -084 123013 013 /// /// 03
$$

[Dave]

[Extratropical94]

Observation 16:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171746
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 16 20110817
173700 1421N 07431W 9772 00293 0105 +237 -084 119014 014 /// /// 03
173730 1420N 07432W 9773 00291 0106 +234 -083 117014 014 /// /// 03
173800 1419N 07433W 9772 00292 0106 +233 -080 115014 015 /// /// 03
173830 1418N 07434W 9774 00290 0107 +230 -079 116013 013 /// /// 03
173900 1417N 07435W 9774 00290 0106 +230 -078 120012 013 /// /// 03
173930 1415N 07436W 9774 00290 0106 +230 -072 121012 013 /// /// 03
174000 1414N 07437W 9773 00292 0106 +230 -072 118011 012 /// /// 03
174030 1413N 07438W 9773 00290 0106 +230 -071 120011 011 /// /// 03
174100 1412N 07439W 9771 00292 0106 +230 -071 120011 012 /// /// 03
174130 1411N 07440W 9774 00289 0105 +233 -076 124011 011 /// /// 03
174200 1409N 07442W 9768 00294 0104 +235 -081 129011 012 /// /// 03
174230 1408N 07443W 9776 00287 0104 +239 -080 130012 012 /// /// 03
174300 1407N 07444W 9769 00293 0103 +239 -080 130013 013 /// /// 03
174330 1406N 07445W 9774 00288 0104 +236 -079 129012 012 /// /// 03
174400 1405N 07446W 9772 00291 0104 +235 -075 127012 012 /// /// 03
174430 1403N 07447W 9766 00296 0104 +233 -076 124011 011 /// /// 03
174500 1402N 07448W 9774 00288 0104 +234 -076 120010 010 /// /// 03
174530 1401N 07449W 9777 00285 0104 +233 -076 121010 011 /// /// 03
174600 1400N 07450W 9768 00294 0103 +236 -075 125011 012 /// /// 03
174630 1359N 07451W 9770 00291 0102 +237 -072 126012 012 /// /// 03
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is finding crazy dry dew points....

[underthwx]

What will the Recon mission reveal? Will any of you share your thoughts please?

[wxman57]

Recon is close to what should be an LLC, but not finding anything but southeast wind so far. The next report should confirm whether it's an open wave or is developing a weak LLC. I don't think it's there yet, but it should be a TD and/or TS in 24-48 hrs.

[SouthDadeFish]

What will the Recon mission reveal? Will any of you share your thoughts please?

Recon is finding a tropical wave with areas of lowest pressure farther south than previously thought. Still pretty disorganized to me with lights winds throughout the system.

[Dave]

Anyone want to do graphics? I have to leave now...so pick them up if you'd like. Thanks!

[Extratropical94]

Observation 17:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171756
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 17 20110817
174700 1357N 07452W 9775 00286 0102 +239 -074 129012 013 /// /// 03
174730 1356N 07453W 9768 00292 0102 +237 -074 126012 012 /// /// 03
174800 1355N 07454W 9775 00285 0101 +241 -075 124012 012 /// /// 03
174830 1354N 07455W 9778 00284 0101 +244 -076 123013 013 /// /// 03
174900 1353N 07456W 9768 00292 0101 +242 -075 123012 012 /// /// 03
174930 1351N 07457W 9773 00287 0102 +237 -068 122011 011 /// /// 03
175000 1350N 07458W 9776 00286 0102 +240 -067 126011 011 /// /// 03
175030 1349N 07459W 9772 00290 0102 +240 -066 126011 011 /// /// 03
175100 1348N 07500W 9773 00289 0102 +239 -066 125011 012 /// /// 03
175130 1347N 07501W 9772 00290 0102 +240 -068 125012 012 /// /// 03
175200 1345N 07502W 9774 00287 0102 +241 -061 122012 012 /// /// 03
175230 1344N 07503W 9774 00286 0101 +239 -059 115012 012 /// /// 03
175300 1343N 07504W 9774 00288 0102 +240 -058 117012 012 /// /// 03
175330 1342N 07505W 9766 00294 0102 +240 -060 118012 012 /// /// 03
175400 1341N 07506W 9777 00285 0102 +240 -061 122011 011 013 001 03
175430 1339N 07507W 9772 00289 0102 +240 -064 120011 011 010 001 00
175500 1338N 07508W 9773 00288 0101 +245 -067 118011 012 009 001 00
175530 1337N 07509W 9772 00289 0101 +244 -059 119011 011 011 000 00
175600 1336N 07510W 9773 00289 0101 +244 -059 117011 011 011 001 00
175630 1335N 07512W 9758 00301 0102 +241 -057 115011 011 011 000 00
$$