ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Since 5PM things have return to normal. We can have a good breathe for now, thanks . Hope that the night will be calm but that's another story.

That is great news from the butterfly island. Now we have to see how the folks downstream in the Caribbean may be affected,especially our friend BZSTORM in Belize.

[ozonepete]

good luck to all of you. so far this has caused more trouble than it looked like it could...

[Gustywind]

Since 5PM things have return to normal. We can have a good breathe for now, thanks . Hope that the night will be calm but that's another story.

That is great news from the butterfly island. Now we have to see how the folks downstream in the Caribbean may be affected,especially our friend BZSTORM in Belize.

Thanks for this post Cycloneye. Even if we're always in Orange alert, looks like a modest improvement is occuring for tonight. Yeah let's see what could happens for our others friend in the Carib hoping for the best.

[SouthDadeFish]

93L looks pretty anemic right now:



I'm surprised convection has begun to fire yet...

[South Texas Storms]

Convection has begun to pop up the last few nights at around 6z. We will see if that happens tonight as well.

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow: Convection has begun to pop up the last few nights at around 6z. We will see if that happens tonight as well.

If it wants to develop though, the diurnal cycles can't affect it this much.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Convection has begun to pop up the last few nights at around 6z. We will see if that happens tonight as well.

If it wants to develop though, the diurnal cycles can't affect it this much.

True, but I don't think it will develop until it slows down in the western Caribbean in a few days, if it does at all.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Convection has begun to pop up the last few nights at around 6z. We will see if that happens tonight as well.

If it wants to develop though, the diurnal cycles can't affect it this much.

Until it develops a well-defined LLC, convection will come and go with the cycles.

[Macrocane]

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If there was a LLC under the convection and a CDO in the center of those rainbands we would have a nice looking tropical cyclone, but it is lacking both things Anyway, if conditions are really that good as SHIPS is indicating it has a good chance to develop into a moderate TS in a couple of days.

[Brent]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THIS REGION. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Well got a medium chance now, really it should start to feel the effects of the of the W.Caribbean soon I'd have thought if its going to ever get going.

Mid level circulation looks half decent.

[KWT]

00z ECM still weakly develops this, mayb e a TD/weak TS forecasted by it before it runs it into CA.

[Gustywind]

Hey what is that east of Martinica?, a big blob moving towards the Windwards/Leewards islands? Anyone noticed that? No mention of a twave in the last TWD.

[Gustywind]

IR sat pic of the Lesser Antilles

[GCANE]

Looks like there is a small TUTT just to the SW of 93L; i.e. north of Panama.

WV showing mid-level dry air indicating the TUTT is creating subsidence (pushing cold, dry air down from the upper troposphere).

93L could struggle to fire convection today.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[GCANE]

Here is the latest GOES sounding in the middle of the dry-slot at 15N 80W.

Looks like borderline CAPE and LI.

No convective cap.

[HurrMark]

Well, there definitely seems to be more of a circulation...probably in the mid-levels, but the convection isn't that well organized. It could still develop, but the best chance it becoming a TS might not happen until the western Caribbean. And if it does, it will probably quickly run out of real estate before getting too strong (perhaps making it 8 for 8 without a hurricane).

[cycloneye]

30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION
AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OVER THIS REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[ozonepete]

MLC quite apparent now. Looks like could be an LLC where I put the red circle. We'll see as sun is coming up.
Interesting how this has gone opposite to the normal DMAX at night and DMIN during day. And sure enough, it look's like convection is firing up again as daylight starts.

[HURAKAN]

Keep an eye on this buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058