CPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Depression

[Kingarabian]

Back to 80%.

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GIS data:  .shp

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.


[KWT]

Storms have increased around the naked LLC that was circulating out there, I still think this has a reasonable shout at developing at some point but its not a forgone conclusion.

[Yellow Evan]

Does look like our first basin-crosser of the season.

Basin crosser? I assume mean AOR crosser because I doubt 98E is going to the WPAC.

[HURAKAN]

Does look like our first basin-crosser of the season.

Basin crosser? I assume mean AOR crosser because I doubt 98E is going to the WPAC.

eastern pacific to central pacific

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Yellow Evan]

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE CENTER...IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND OVER COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

[KWT]

Convection not as strong as it was at the moment so its window maybe starting to close a little.

[Extratropical94]

Welcome 6-E

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep982011_ep062011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108152015
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 06, 2011, DB, O, 2011081218, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, EP062011
EP, 06, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1187W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 06, 2011081206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1191W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 06, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1194W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1201W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 06, 2011081300, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1208W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081306, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1214W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081312, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1223W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 80, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081318, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1231W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 80, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081400, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1238W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 100, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081406, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1250W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1265W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1278W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 100, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1289W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1301W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1311W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 06, 2011081518, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1319W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[KWT]

Ha just as i say its window maybe closing it decides to develop, pah!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
2100 UTC MON AUG 15 2011


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.0N 133.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.0N 134.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.1N 136.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.3N 137.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 132.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED NEAR THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED TODAY...AND A SMALL BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T1.5 AND
T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE
DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. AN ASCAT OVERPASS FROM
LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE NEAR 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TO DECREASE BELOW
10 KT BETWEEN 12 AND 60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE DEPRESSION
SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MOVING
OVER A SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS ALONG 140W...IS
BOUNDED BY A VAST AREA OF STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH...AND IS
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ...WHICH WOULD ALL ARGUE AGAINST
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS A FAIRLY FRAGILE SYSTEM GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE AND
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT
ALL IF IT DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
270/9 AND IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NARROW EAST-
NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A BREAK IN
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130W AND 140W WITHIN 36 TO
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE
TROUGH. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE
MODELS. WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THE
WEAK SIDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 12.0N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 12.0N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 12.0N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 12.1N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 12.3N 137.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 13.0N 140.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 13.5N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Extratropical94]

It's probably gonna end the streak
No 6 for 6 this year.

[KWT]

Well barely picks up any latitude does it really, got a feeling even though this will be weak it'll be fairly long lived.

[Kingarabian]

One of the weirdest looking depressions I've ever seen lol.

[Chacor]

Does look like our first basin-crosser of the season.

Basin crosser? I assume mean AOR crosser because I doubt 98E is going to the WPAC.

eastern pacific to central pacific

Indeed, the Eastern North Pacific and Central North Pacific are different basins.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DETACHED FROM A SINGLE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...PRESUMABLY A SYMPTOM OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.

GLOBAL MODELS STILL FORECAST THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO
INGEST A RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH.
THE LATTER TWO FACTORS WOULD LIKELY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...AN ABRUPT
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SUB-26C WATERS SHOULD HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8. AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD STEER IT ON A WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY
48 HOURS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT POINT...THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO MINIMAL AND A MORE WESTERLY MOTION IS ASSUMED LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 12.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 12.2N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 12.3N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 12.4N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 12.7N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 13.5N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 14.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 13.5N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

Basin crosser? I assume mean AOR crosser because I doubt 98E is going to the WPAC.

eastern pacific to central pacific

Indeed, the Eastern North Pacific and Central North Pacific are different basins.

How are they different basins? Look at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/climvari/table.html and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:7_zones_dels_ciclons_tropicals.jpg.

[Florida1118]

The NHC has the Atl and EPAC, CPHC has the CPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: The NHC has the Atl and EPAC, CPHC has the CPAC.

AOR lines don't determine basins. If they did the EPAC and the ATL would be the same basin The AUS has 3 AOR's but they are one big basin.

[Florida1118]

:uarrow: The NHC has the Atl and EPAC, CPHC has the CPAC.

AOR lines don't determine basins. If they did the EPAC and the ATL would be the same basin The AUS has 3 AOR's but they are one big basin.

Yeah...they just are different Just go along with it lol

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: The NHC has the Atl and EPAC, CPHC has the CPAC.

AOR lines don't determine basins. If they did the EPAC and the ATL would be the same basin The AUS has 3 AOR's but they are one big basin.

Yeah...they just are different Just go along with it lol

How are they different? I can't go along with it because it is technically false information.