Possible development from area near 25N 53W (Is invest 94L)

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Possible development from area near 25N 53W (Is invest 94L)

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:38 pm

Been watching the area for the last couple days and it seems that it will get pulled around the ridging north of PR. the last couple runs of the GFS, NAM, and a couple others try to develop this area as it heads SW then W as it passes Puerto Rico in a few days. The chances are not too high right now but it has been there and dropping south for a about 3 days and convection seem to be increasing and a weak Low looks like its trying to develop.

Just something to watch.

Image
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Re: Possible development from area near 25N 53W

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:50 pm

this looks like a peice that broke off of Emily, if this does develop would it be emily or a new system
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Re: Possible development from area near 25N 53W

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:51 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:this looks like a peice that broke off of Emily, if this does develop would it be emily or a new system



I think because it is now a separate entity that should this area develop, it would be designated a different name. Don't hold me to this though. I may be assuming wrong, but I think this would get a different designation.
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#4 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:02 pm

Aric,

18Z NAM sure likes it...Something to watch as anything that formed would likely get pushed back towards the bahamas and possibly FL...
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#5 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:09 pm

18Z NAM H+84 SE bahamas...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
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#6 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:22 pm

Yeah, Vortex, you are right. This area also has caught my attention over the past day or so. Conditions down the road may indeed allow for this system to develop. I'll be interested to see soon if the other dynamical models jump onboard with regards to this feature
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#7 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:58 pm

NHC currently analyzes this area as a surface trough interacting with an ULL.
They are currently not analyzing a presence of a low level circulation at this time.


An excerpt from 8 p.m. TWD.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N53W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 26N51W TO 20N54W
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#8 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:12 pm

Yeah it has a way to go but it quite persistant
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Re: Possible development from area near 25N 53W

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:40 am

Aric, It got 10%. :)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: Possible development from area near 25N 53W - 10%

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:59 am

If you look at the models, this will be a fish, but its all going to depend where the ridge breaks
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Re: Possible development from area near 25N 53W - 10%

#11 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:53 am

NHC now analyzes a weak 1014 mb Low at 26N 53W on their 2 a.m. TWD.
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#12 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:16 am

we need see how it do rest of day if look better we could see invest by tonight
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#13 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:20 am

should be an invest later today...
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#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:51 am

Yeah its looking quite impressive this morning. with a hint of a decent LLC developing. should be an invest soon.
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Re:

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:54 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Yeah its looking quite impressive this morning. with a hint of a decent LLC developing. should be an invest soon.


Is invest 94L now so thread is locked.
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