cycloneye wrote:i trust none of them...
Certainly Jesse, this year has been not normal the performance so far. Let's see when the real peak of the season comes after mid August and see if things change. (Except the Euro with Don that was very good)
The ECMWF did well with Emily also. When the invest that spawned Emily was between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, it consistently showed it traversing the Northern Caribbean towards Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola where it disintegrated her, never really deepening it.
Out of all of the models, the ECMWF is the one I would pick if forced to pick. It's not doing much with this wave.