ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

Looks closed to me and drifting NW. I say we have TS Emily again. Upper-level winds are helping to give it that nudge as they are blowing out of the east...lots of drought-busting rain over the Bahamas and a huge mass of it is sitting offshore the SE Coast of FL. I think it is going to get close but the bulk of it will probably stay at least 30-40 miles to the east. So close, yet so far (big bummer).....maybe we will get lucky and the system will take a big "wobble" to the west....

It would not take much more of a wobble to the west for some of that moisture to get to the coast gatorcane I can tell you that much. But, like you said, so close but probably not likely for significant rains from Emily.

It has just been that kind of season so far with so many folks suffering from drought conditions. Hopefully the pattern will change soon and we can get some drought busters to come from the tropics soon.

[jinftl]

how close will close get with this rain shield...

[mutley]

Looks closed to me and drifting NW.

It's not impossible to even see WNW, if you try hard enough.

[Dave]

[gatorcane]

When you think about it the HWRF has not done a bad job with this system as far as where it would ultimately head. It got the track right it looks like as it is moving NW just offshore FL...in fact the HWRF had it near the coast of Florida as well, which looks like it is not that far off from that..

Of course the intensity forecast from the HWRF was way off. They really need to tweak the hurricane models when it comes to intensity. It seems they are always too bullish and try to deepen systems too quickly. It seems the ECMWF does quite well in that department and rarely do I see it deepen a system that does not actually come to fruition....

[Dave]

Dave ready for me to take over yet?

I'll get hdobs 10 & then you start out from #11. If there is anyone here that can work graphics go ahead! My parents 65th wedding anniversary is today and I really can't miss this one. Thanks Artist & all for the break!

[Aric Dunn]

Closed for sure.. but dont think the winds are high enough for a TS. probably TD



oh yeah for those along the coast.... go to the beach near west palm and see if you can see recon flying around in a little while lol

[CronkPSU]

i can't find any movement in any direction from the NWS long radar loop

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[artist]

Dave ready for me to take over yet?

I'll get hdobs 10 & then you start out from #11. If there is anyone here that can work graphics go ahead! My parents 65th wedding anniversary is today and I really can't miss this one. Thanks Artist & all for the break!

what a wonderful, wonderful accomplishment! Tell them congrats from me!
I've got it at 11 Dave. Thanks and have fun.

[Kohlecane]

Now 8 closed
2 mostly closed
1 open

[Aric Dunn]

i can't find any movement in any direction from the NWS long radar loop

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

yeah its not moving much at all

[Recurve]

Radar seems to show inflow or convection developing along bands from northwest and southwest. There should be enough buoys and ships in this area to have pretty good observations but I haven't checked yet.

Just cause this system has refused to come together so many times, I'll say not closed yet. But close.

High overcast here, calm, no rain. I'm about 110 nm from the likely low center.

[Dave]

016
URNT15 KNHC 061816
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 10 20110806
180630 2714N 08133W 4464 06815 0414 -110 -223 109013 014 /// /// 03
180700 2713N 08131W 4463 06815 0414 -110 -232 109015 015 /// /// 03
180730 2713N 08128W 4463 06815 0413 -110 -222 109015 015 /// /// 03
180800 2712N 08125W 4465 06811 0413 -110 -230 111015 015 /// /// 03
180830 2711N 08122W 4462 06816 0414 -110 -224 114015 015 /// /// 03
180900 2711N 08119W 4464 06812 0414 -110 -232 112013 014 /// /// 03
180930 2710N 08116W 4464 06812 0413 -109 -238 112013 013 /// /// 03
181000 2710N 08113W 4463 06816 0413 -110 -237 113013 013 /// /// 03
181030 2709N 08110W 4463 06816 0413 -107 -237 110012 013 /// /// 03
181100 2709N 08107W 4463 06814 0412 -109 -243 108012 012 /// /// 03
181130 2708N 08104W 4464 06812 0412 -107 -226 110012 013 /// /// 03
181200 2707N 08101W 4463 06812 0412 -105 -259 107013 013 /// /// 03
181230 2707N 08058W 4464 06810 0411 -108 -235 106011 011 /// /// 03
181300 2706N 08055W 4463 06812 0409 -110 -224 101011 013 /// /// 03
181330 2706N 08053W 4464 06810 0409 -112 -229 100012 014 /// /// 03
181400 2707N 08050W 4462 06812 0409 -111 -219 098014 015 /// /// 03
181430 2708N 08047W 4464 06806 0408 -111 -234 097014 014 /// /// 03
181500 2708N 08044W 4464 06809 0408 -110 -220 099013 014 /// /// 03
181530 2709N 08041W 4459 06817 0408 -110 -237 098012 012 /// /// 03
181600 2708N 08038W 4463 06810 0409 -111 -229 100012 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

Ok Artist & Hurakan...it's all yours. I've got to get outta here and over to my parents 65th wedding anniversary dinner today. Take care everyone! See ya!

[Downdraft]

Closed but I agree with Aric TD not a TS.

[gatorcane]

Looks closed to me and drifting NW.

It's not impossible to even see WNW, if you try hard enough.

Yeah I see what you mean when I try hard enough

The 18Z NAM yesterday had the VORT coming ashore Palm Beach County...

It's definitely not in a hurry to head N or NNE out to sea, maybe a slow NW drift....

Organizing systems can have erratic movements so I am really hoping for a west wobble baby!

[NDG]

Recon passing over Martin County now about to come offshore.

[artist]

Now 8 closed
2 mostly closed
1 open
The plane is descending...

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

I need to go outside they will go right over me!

[northjaxpro]

Alright, should be getting the first reports from Recon very shortly. I agree with you Aric as well.

Closed low will be found, but a TD for now.