ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[NDG]

come on "emily" keep coming NW- NNW for about 12 more hours, we can use the rain!!!

What? Haven't you gotten plenty of rain lately? I don't know what part of Apopka you live but my grass can't stop growing, so far this month I have gotten a good 2"

[Dave]

[northjaxpro]

Also, you can see the dry air to the north and northeast still getting entrained into the circulation.

Conditions are marginal at best for strengthening. I think we will see regeneration to a TS within the next 12 hours aas she makes the move out tom sea shortly.

[Dave]

095
URNT15 KNHC 061726
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 05 20110806
171630 2814N 08627W 4464 06807 0406 -105 -195 128012 012 /// /// 03
171700 2813N 08624W 4462 06808 0406 -105 -198 127012 013 /// /// 03
171730 2813N 08621W 4463 06807 0405 -105 -192 124012 013 /// /// 03
171800 2812N 08618W 4464 06807 0405 -105 -193 126013 014 /// /// 03
171830 2811N 08615W 4463 06807 0405 -105 -209 129013 014 /// /// 03
171900 2810N 08612W 4465 06804 0406 -105 -207 135013 014 /// /// 03
171930 2809N 08610W 4463 06808 0406 -106 -205 131014 014 /// /// 03
172000 2808N 08607W 4463 06808 0405 -110 -191 128013 013 /// /// 03
172030 2808N 08604W 4464 06804 0404 -110 -192 133013 013 /// /// 03
172100 2807N 08601W 4464 06803 0404 -110 -178 144012 012 /// /// 03
172130 2806N 08558W 4464 06804 0404 -110 -185 139012 013 /// /// 03
172200 2805N 08555W 4463 06807 0405 -110 -207 135013 013 /// /// 03
172230 2804N 08552W 4462 06809 0406 -110 -217 137012 013 /// /// 03
172300 2803N 08550W 4463 06807 0406 -110 -228 134013 014 /// /// 03
172330 2802N 08547W 4463 06811 0409 -109 -200 131013 013 /// /// 03
172400 2802N 08544W 4463 06812 0411 -109 -227 126014 014 /// /// 03
172430 2801N 08541W 4464 06809 0411 -110 -225 134013 013 /// /// 03
172500 2800N 08538W 4463 06812 0410 -110 -196 135013 014 /// /// 03
172530 2759N 08535W 4464 06809 0410 -110 -211 140013 014 /// /// 03
172600 2758N 08533W 4463 06810 0410 -114 -202 138013 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Moisture pushing towards S FL:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[CronkPSU]

come on "emily" keep coming NW- NNW for about 12 more hours, we can use the rain!!!

What? Haven't you gotten plenty of rain lately? I don't know what part of Apopka you live but my grass can't stop growing, so far this month I have gotten a good 2"

pffft, i live at camp wewa (yeah i am the guy who runs Wewa) and we have gotten basically nothing since april, planted 150 trees and still having to water them once a week...we keep missing everyone of these big rains, we hear the thunder, see the lightning but we have had only two good sized thunderstorms the past month...now it isn't really a bad thing since camp is running and we haven't had many rainouts but the dust over here in insane...my facility guy lives over on the 436 side of apopka and he tells me it rains almost every day over there...smh

[Dave]

[NDG]

Poll time - will they find a closed low or not?

A closed low for sure, might be elongated SW to NE.

[crimi481]

N.JAX
What mechanism will be pulling Emily north , before she crosses S. Fl?
Possible when it is hugging Fl west coast - it go more north. (it appears)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Dave]

216
URNT15 KNHC 061737
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 06 20110806
172630 2757N 08530W 4463 06810 0409 -112 -208 137013 013 /// /// 03
172700 2756N 08527W 4463 06810 0409 -115 -206 138013 013 /// /// 03
172730 2756N 08524W 4463 06812 0410 -115 -203 138013 013 /// /// 03
172800 2755N 08521W 4464 06812 0411 -115 -243 138014 014 /// /// 03
172830 2754N 08518W 4463 06813 0411 -119 -238 138014 014 /// /// 03
172900 2753N 08515W 4463 06812 0411 -120 -230 142014 015 /// /// 03
172930 2752N 08512W 4463 06813 0412 -120 -252 141015 016 /// /// 03
173000 2752N 08509W 4463 06815 0413 -117 -237 136014 014 /// /// 03
173030 2751N 08507W 4464 06810 0412 -115 -228 138013 014 /// /// 03
173100 2751N 08504W 4463 06815 0412 -115 -236 140014 014 /// /// 03
173130 2750N 08501W 4464 06810 0411 -112 -235 134013 014 /// /// 03
173200 2750N 08458W 4463 06813 0412 -111 -236 131013 014 /// /// 03
173230 2749N 08455W 4466 06808 0412 -113 -244 134013 013 /// /// 03
173300 2749N 08452W 4464 06812 0413 -113 -231 127013 014 /// /// 03
173330 2748N 08449W 4463 06815 0413 -115 -233 129013 013 /// /// 03
173400 2748N 08446W 4463 06815 0414 -115 -236 129013 013 /// /// 03
173430 2747N 08443W 4464 06814 0414 -113 -228 132012 012 /// /// 03
173500 2747N 08440W 4464 06814 0414 -112 -230 131013 013 /// /// 03
173530 2746N 08437W 4463 06814 0413 -114 -260 134013 015 /// /// 03
173600 2746N 08434W 4463 06815 0414 -114 -248 135015 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

[artist]

Poll time - will they find a closed low or not?

A closed low for sure, might be elongated SW to NE.

One closed low, anoyone else?
Thanks for playing NDG!

[mutley]

Moisture pushing towards S FL:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Radar seems to show it too. Pushing toward the coast.

[NDG]

come on "emily" keep coming NW- NNW for about 12 more hours, we can use the rain!!!

What? Haven't you gotten plenty of rain lately? I don't know what part of Apopka you live but my grass can't stop growing, so far this month I have gotten a good 2"

pffft, i live at camp wewa (yeah i am the guy who runs Wewa) and we have gotten basically nothing since april, planted 150 trees and still having to water them once a week...we keep missing everyone of these big rains, we hear the thunder, see the lightning but we have had only two good sized thunderstorms the past month...now it isn't really a bad thing since camp is running and we haven't had many rainouts but the dust over here in insane...my facility guy lives over on the 436 side of apopka and he tells me it rains almost every day over there...smh

I live on the south side of 436, we have been getting rain just about every afternoon, my backyard smells like mildew. My plants are growing crazy wild.

[AdamFirst]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...WHICH IS APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS...HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED.

[boca]

Ill play too One closed low by Grand Bahama.

[artist]

Ill play too One closed low by Grand Bahama.

thanks Boca,
That is 2 votes for closed.

[Dave]

[CronkPSU]

closed!

[Dave]

395
URNT15 KNHC 061746
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 07 20110806
173630 2745N 08431W 4463 06818 0414 -113 -252 134015 016 /// /// 03
173700 2745N 08428W 4464 06814 0414 -110 -268 133016 017 /// /// 03
173730 2744N 08425W 4466 06813 0415 -110 -274 134016 016 /// /// 03
173800 2744N 08422W 4463 06818 0415 -110 -268 135016 016 /// /// 03
173830 2743N 08419W 4464 06815 0415 -110 -273 134016 016 /// /// 03
173900 2743N 08416W 4464 06814 0416 -110 -279 134016 017 /// /// 03
173930 2742N 08413W 4461 06824 0416 -110 -283 135017 017 /// /// 03
174000 2742N 08410W 4463 06818 0416 -110 -280 136016 016 /// /// 03
174030 2741N 08407W 4464 06816 0416 -110 -267 136016 017 /// /// 03
174100 2741N 08404W 4464 06815 0416 -110 -230 133014 015 /// /// 03
174130 2740N 08401W 4464 06815 0415 -110 -220 127013 014 /// /// 03
174200 2740N 08359W 4463 06818 0416 -110 -220 129014 014 /// /// 03
174230 2739N 08356W 4462 06820 0416 -115 -283 130015 015 /// /// 03
174300 2739N 08353W 4466 06815 0417 -110 -268 129016 016 /// /// 03
174330 2738N 08350W 4463 06819 0416 -110 -258 131015 015 /// /// 03
174400 2738N 08347W 4464 06818 0416 -110 -268 133015 016 /// /// 03
174430 2737N 08344W 4464 06818 0416 -110 -274 133016 016 /// /// 03
174500 2737N 08341W 4462 06820 0416 -110 -285 130014 015 /// /// 03
174530 2736N 08338W 4462 06819 0415 -110 -273 133014 014 /// /// 03
174600 2736N 08335W 4464 06815 0415 -110 -283 140014 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

N.JAX
What mechanism will be pulling Emily north , before she crosses S. Fl?
Possible when it is hugging Fl west coast - it go more north. (it appears)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Right now, the system is meandering around or drifting slowly due to being temporarily in a weak steering environment being in a weakness between the Large Death Heat Ridge over the Southern U.S. and the ATL Bermuda ridge displaced to the east. The trough that came off the East Coast of the U.S. the past couple of days has lifted out, leaving this weakness in between the two ridges behind in its wake for the remnants of Emily to get drawn into it.

Now, whatever becomes of Emily in the next 12 hours will drift and meander some, in fact it could drift it within even a bit closer to the SE coast of FL . But, by tomorrow for sure, another shortwave moving down over the top of the Southern U.S. ridge should be enough for whatever becomes of Emily to move NE away from the FL coast and out into the Atlantic.