ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[gatorcane]

I agree with others here.

I definitely don't see much movement any longer though. Looks like another stall.

[cycloneye]

I suspect the westward motion may be an illusion of the convection beginning to wrap around the center of circulation for the first time...

We'll have to wait and see!

We will know the truth about how is the structure of the system in a few hours when recon gets there.

[KWT]

I suspect recon will probably find a TD unless convection decays again...conditions for now are actually not too bad, a bit of shear still but not too strong for now.

[tailgater]

Yep, looks pretty stationary on that loop there.


It will probably head north once it consolidates a little more. I think Emily will be back to TS strenght by this evening.

[mutley]

Perhaps just consolidating, giving it the appearance of a westward movement?

My guess is that the spot we're watching on radar, actually is moving west at the moment, but just temporarily, and the overall remnants will start going NE in x number of hours. It does however, look like it's setting up a nice lower level spin at this spot, so who knows. Another surprise from Emily?

[jinftl]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ168-172-173-061400-
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
754 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.NOW...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METROS
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF
EMILY) AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND JUST OFFSHORE
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
LOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MORNING
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OCCUR
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR...OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STILL WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

SUNDAY...REMAINS OF EMILY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER ATLANTIC.
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAV POPS CAME IN LOWER
VERSUS 12Z RUN BUT NUDGED UP FROM THESE VALUES TO AROUND 40 PERCENT
AS THEY LOOKED A LITTLE LOW. HIGH TEMPS REACHING MID 90S INTERIOR
AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH DELAYED EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HEAT INDICES AGAIN REACHING UP TO 102-107 RANGE MANY AREAS.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....GLITTO

[mutley]

Thanks, cycloneye. Hmmm...I guess it doesn't leave much room for doubting the models now, does it?

[NDG]

I think the COC is right off the northern tip of Andros Island, the more I look at the sat loop and radar loop, near 25.2N & 78.2W

Zoomed in TWDR radar loop:

[wxman57]

Obs indicate an extremely weak low pressure area. Winds in the area are 5-10 kts, and even those winds are not blowing toward any low center. Note the winds along the SE FL coast just 100 miles away are blowing from the east. There's no low-level convergence to speak of. It's not even close to becoming a depression this morning.

You won't be able to detect the movement of any surface low pressure area on radar, as there is no distinct center to track. And the radar is looking up in the mid levels of the atmosphere, not anywhere near the surface. To see the movement, zoom out on satellite so that you see all of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba and run a 6-12 hour loop. Follow the area of thunderstorms. It's moving right along the forecast track, which is NNW now. Steering currents just to its north are from the southwest, so out to sea it will go tomorrow. Coastal areas of FL may see a few thunderstorms today as it passes. That's about it. If it was to finally regain enough of an LLC to be classified as a TD that would be tomorrow as it moves northeast. Relative wind shear would decrease by then, but it may still lack low-level convergence. Redevelopment chances less than 50%.

[cpdaman]

yup Low level convergence is weak to non existant

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

a whopping 5

Wxman57 has a good handle on this thing-unfortunately for those wanting something to track (or rain on there lawns)

but it's funny that we are all hoping recon will prove otherwise LOL

[wxman57]

I'd like Emily to come over my house, too. Only 4 days with over 1/2" of rain since mid January. Just 3 rain days total from April through June and a total of an inch of rain. Trees are dying. 100F or more each day with no end in sight. Unfortunately, Emily won't even provide much rain for Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

well thats pretty obvious.. lol first time seeing it since last night lol

[KWT]

The only thing I'll say with reagrds to any LLC is its probably quite small, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if recon actually does find some closed circulation down there...

Now its quite another thing for it to be defined enough for the NHC to reupgrade.

Any westerly winds will be confined to a VERY small area if the Sat.loops are anything to go by, I'm not sure the wind obs 100-150 miles away will tell us much right now about a small weak formative LLC...I've seen MANY times where little LLC's have popped up and obs from similar distances suggests there is nothing there...Wind obs from Andros islands though probably would tell the story...

Not to say this is one such case, just throwing it out there!

Best chance for strengthening is as Wxman57 said, as it exits NE.

[cpdaman]

delete (pumped to be moving back to s. fl in 5 days!)

[cpdaman]

the east coast disco for FL does mention that emily remnants could cause some sort of enhancement along sea breeze front ("collision" was mentioned) and some 2-3 in/hr rainfall rates are possible this pm......where this sets up i guess depends on how far sea breeze pushes in ...(not sure?)

[artist]

Congo Town, Andros Island has SWS winds of average of 19 according
http://weather.weatherbug.com/Bahamas/C ... ather.html

ooops that should read WSW

[NDG]

The suspect COC is only 125 miles away from the radar site, so it is catching a good base of the convection, not that high as if it was 200 miles away.

[KWT]

Hmm WSW winds from Andros would sure be suggestive of at least some sort of circulation setting up...I don't think its that far away from reformation at the moment.

LL convergence maybe a issue with this one...

[jinftl]

Observations from Boca Raton - winds that were due east until around 7:30am have veered around to the n and nw...