ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I wanna go outside and see if i can see an Aurora. They are reporting being able to see them in the middle latitudes. Before the clouds of whatever is coming this way gets too thick.

You won't see them here. If the storm were THAT strong to bring the aurora down to 26N, you probably wouldn't be on the internet as the geosync sats would be down, power grids would be freaking out, and there would be virutally no radio communications, including OTA radio and TV.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sc ... ceweather/

Here is what happens during the worst space weather imaginable.

[cycloneye]

Ok,let's return to the topic on hand and that is about the Remnants of Emily,thank you.

[gone2beach]

And she is still playing games at night.....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[Macrocane]

Probably a dumb question but here goes, if this organized into a named storm would it be named Emily or Franklin?

Reason I ask is because as of last discussion on Emily Thursday at 5pm edt, the NHC said the system dissipated:

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

I understand that if the LLC dissipates it would be considered another system so it would be Franklin although it's obvious that it is the remains of Emily so it's an interesting question, I would like to know the answer too

[SeminoleWind]

not sure if this has been asked yet or not but is this now not an invest, and if not i wonder why not?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Does anybody else notice warming cloud tops and the land based convective stuff off the NE coast of Cuba subsiding? And the formerly vigorous convection waning a bit?

[crimi481]

The "Circle" of high pressure over mid south states (rhe "Shredder" last several systems close to Gulf- and to the last recent one)

Shreds -then remnents drawn to outer edge of that "circle" - sending energy up and around - to Mid west states - with exploding storms/floods This happening since last summer started. Many of past storms shredded just 12-18 hours after NHC forecast strenghtening.

I do not know "why" this happens - bit only watched it happen 6-8 times (last 2 summers_
Is it being entrained now? (from its s.w.)
Circle Shredder loop.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[AdamFirst]

not sure if this has been asked yet or not but is this now not an invest, and if not i wonder why not?

It's being tracked as "05L", or the former Emily.

This is not a new or separate entity, since many of the former moving parts from Emily are trekking along in the central Bahamas tonight.

[SeminoleWind]

not sure if this has been asked yet or not but is this now not an invest, and if not i wonder why not?

It's being tracked as "05L", or the former Emily.

This is not a new or separate entity, since many of the former moving parts from Emily are trekking along in the central Bahamas tonight.

oh, gotcha thanks

[SeminoleWind]

The "Circle" of high pressure over mid south states (rhe "Shredder" last several systems close to Gulf- and to the last recent one)

Shreds -then remnents drawn to outer edge of that "circle" - sending energy up and around - to Mid west states - with exploding storms/floods This happening since last summer started. Many of past storms shredded just 12-18 hours after NHC forecast strenghtening.

I do not know "why" this happens - bit only watched it happen 6-8 times (last 2 summers_
Is it being entrained now? (from its s.w.)
Circle Shredder loop.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

awesome link thanks

[AdamFirst]

Convection really dying tonight, just on cue as wxman57 rained on the South Floridians' parades.

[SFLcane]

Experience has shown that when a TC passes east of Florida, we are generally left high and dry for the most part. There will be some enhancement of shower activity on Saturday,but not any kind of prolonged deluge kind of rains that last for more than 12 hours, which is TPC's criterion for mentioning 'heavy rain's in there TWOs.

[bahamaswx]

Probably a dumb question but here goes, if this organized into a named storm would it be named Emily or Franklin?

Reason I ask is because as of last discussion on Emily Thursday at 5pm edt, the NHC said the system dissipated:

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

I understand that if the LLC dissipates it would be considered another system so it would be Franklin although it's obvious that it is the remains of Emily so it's an interesting question, I would like to know the answer too

This will interest you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan

[artist]

latest image from ghcc and good night all!

[SouthDadeFish]

Pretty quiet in here for a code red 70% off the coast of Florida... Convection is starting to vanish again.

[SoupBone]

Surface obs from SE FL to Andros to northern Cuba still don't indicate much there. Very little to cause convergence so that convection will persist in an area. Not much chance of any development as it passes Miami tomorrow morning. All the squalls should remain mostly offshore and across the Bahamas. By Sunday, the remnants should be turning NE and heading out to sea. Latest model guidance indicates an even sharper NE turn.

As always.

[NDG]

Strange thing is that surface pressures if anything have been going up all day in that area, indicative that the weak rotation that we saw form today may not turn out to be anything after all. Emily might have given us one last false alarm.

[crimi481]

Emily has too many issues
Dylan tune, "Just like a woman"

[lester]

latest image from ghcc and good night all!

the wave formerly known as emily looks like a mess imho